tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post9219100806360160715..comments2019-05-15T17:57:02.098-05:00Comments on Wait 'til this Year: Is Carlos Zambrano the Cubs' worst starting pitcher?Brandon Christolhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10485955859594677071noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post-78307281139696842672010-04-20T13:14:57.447-05:002010-04-20T13:14:57.447-05:00Thanks everyone, and Tyler for your in-depth comme...Thanks everyone, and Tyler for your in-depth comment. I love the sabermetrics you bring to the table since I'm still trying to gain a better understanding of things like WAR. <br /><br />This post was partly meant to be provocative--I know that Carlos Zambrano is not really worse than Carlos Silva, especially over the long haul. But it's interesting to see that Dempster and Lilly really might be better, and it's unfortunate that our $18 million "ace" struggles so mightily to be consistent.Brandon Christolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10485955859594677071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post-48591168641303657012010-04-20T12:11:38.838-05:002010-04-20T12:11:38.838-05:00Yes, you are correct to be worried when Big Z take...Yes, you are correct to be worried when Big Z takes the mound. I know I am.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post-5695758105235284012010-04-20T11:55:48.717-05:002010-04-20T11:55:48.717-05:00A quick look at WAR (Wins above Replacement) for L...A quick look at WAR (Wins above Replacement) for Lilly Demp and Z over the last three years:<br /><br />Player 2009 2008 2007 Total<br />Lilly 3.7 2.7 3.6 10<br />Demp 3.6 5.1 0.3 9<br />Z 3.6 2.8 2.8 9.2<br /><br />Silva was a 3.3 in 2007, a 3.0 in 2005, and a 3.4 in 2004 , so he has the potential to be as good as Z in a year, but I would easily take Z over Silva. Wells was a 3.0 last year, so he clearly also has the potential, but til he is proven, I would still take Z over Wells. Now, Lilly and Demp I think you can make a case for. I think the 5.1 for Dempster was probabably the best you will ever see out of him, he just doesn't have the kind of stuff to consistently put up those kind of numbers. He has pitched over 200 innings in his first two year as a starter and as you talked about, eating innings is very valuable. Lilly only logged 177 and Z 169 last year. Lilly has been Mr. Constant for 3 years in a row but he still just doesn't have the stuff that Z can. <br /><br />Zambrano had an average WAR of 4.5 from 2003 to 2006, that makes him a top 10 pitcher in baseball for that time period. Why do people think Z is so bad compared to the other Cubs starter the last couple years? I think its because they remember the pitcher from 5 years and expect that. As you have said, Lilly and Dempster have been nice suprises. The 3 pitchers however are not that different in terms of value for the last 3 year. And before you get too flustered about this year, Z has had some extremely bad luck to start 2010. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (a pretty good indicator of luck and bad luck for pitchers) so far this year is .437, that is second worst in all of baseball behind Gavin Floyd's .456. The worst in all of baseball last year was Aaron Harang's .339.<br /><br />Big (Baby) Z is just as good as your other pitchers right now, and his upside is that maybe he can regain his swagger from 5 years ago and be a truly dominate pitcher again. I dont see this upside for the other guys (except for maybe Wells, still need to see more from him though, but so far he doesn't look like the type of pitcher we have seen Z be in the past).Tyler Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post-22108374055158385582010-04-20T11:41:34.306-05:002010-04-20T11:41:34.306-05:00I think it's definitely fair to say that Z is ...I think it's definitely fair to say that Z is currently the Cubs' worst starting pitcher, but if we take into account his historical success (all the years with 14 wins) and potential for future success, I don't really consider him the worst. When considering the totality of their careers, I think Silva might get that distinction.Trevornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004589752668823579.post-91175728829179367872010-04-20T10:06:22.838-05:002010-04-20T10:06:22.838-05:00And Randy Wells record should have been much bette...And Randy Wells record should have been much better last year, had the offense supported him by scoring a few runs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com