Who does Kyle Orton think he is, Jay Cutler?

Let me get this straight ...

Kyle Orton is 5-0 and Chad Henne is 2-0. Chad Pennington, whom Henne replaced, was 0-3. Kerry Collins is 0-5 while Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are a combined one game over .500. Did I get that right? It's nice that we've had the chance to enjoy some surprises even though many aspects of the 2009 NFL season have been quite predictable (e.g. Giants good, Rams bad).

This week on Fox ...

This says it all about last Sunday's slate of NFL games: Joe Buck, Fox's #1 play-by-play man, was doing the Cowboys-Chiefs game. That's right, the 2-2 Cowboys vs. the winless and hapless Chiefs. It actually turned out to be a barn burner, but Fox execs must have looked down the list of games about 10 times before finally convincing themselves that yes, that was in fact the best early game on the schedule. All the others involved either unwatchable teams like the Rams and Redskins or likely blowouts such as Giants-Raiders and Eagles-Bucs, which turned out to be blowouts indeed.

Getting the rally monkey off their back


Despite having lost 12 of 13 postseason games against the Red Sox prior to their ALDS series, and having been eliminated by Boston in 2004, 2007 and 2008, and having never EVER beaten the Red Sox in a playoff series, the Angels scored five runs in the final two innings--including three in the 9th--on Sunday to pave the way to an improbable sweep. Here's hoping they can maintain their confidence and level of play against a stellar Yankees team.

Nearly a clean sweep

Obviously, the Rockies didn't get the memo about getting swept in the first round. By winning Game 2 of their series with the Phillies, they prevented 2009 from being one of the worst years ever when it comes to the divisional round of the playoffs (introduced in 1995). No, wait, it was still one of the worst years ever. Sweep, sweep, sweep, 3-1. Not exactly the best way to tear up the ratings.

While we're on the topic of parity, or lack thereof, the four teams left standing have the 1st (Yankees), 6th (Angels), 7th (Phillies) and 9th (Dodgers) highest team payrolls, respectively. And the Phillies-Dodgers match-up mirrors last year's NLCS. Did someone say salary cap? No? Sorry, I thought I heard someone say salary cap.

Hit and no run; Cubs get 17 hits but find themselves on the wrong end of a blowout

Sunday: Rockies 11, Cubs 5


Have you ever seen a team get 17 hits and score only five runs?

Sunday's game was something of a microcosm of what's been wrong with the Cubs this year. They were unable to get the big hit (5-for-19 with runners in scoring position), struggled in the field (three errors, which they spread around among the catcher's position, the infield, and the outfield), and the bullpen couldn't get anyone out.

The problems, though, started with the starter, as Randy Wells had one of his worst outings of the year. In fact, the seven runs he allowed are the most he's ever allowed in the majors, and the four earned runs are tied for the most he's ever allowed. He just wasn't sharp, as he fell behind hitters all day and needed 100 pitches to get through 5.1 innings. His ERA rose to 3.01, and he came just 1.1 innings shy of qualifying for the ERA leaderboard. He will almost certainly qualify after his next start Friday against the Pirates.

The Cubs are entering a dangerous stretch. The Cardinals used a five-run 8th to sweep the Pirates, pushing the Cubs two games back in the Central, and they're also two games out in the Wild Card. After one more with the Rockies, the Cubs will battle the Phillies (though perhaps they're catching them at the right time--they were just swept by the Marlins) while the Cardinals come home to face the Reds and Padres, two of the four worst teams in the league.

The Cubs offense was locked in Sunday, except when it came to scoring runs. They had at least two hits in each of the first four innings, but tallied just two runs. Second base umpire Chris Guccione cost them one run with an absolutely awful call at second (after which Piniella was ejected for the second time this season), and Jake Fox should have had an RBI were it not for his gapper bouncing over the wall for a ground-rule double. The Cubs finished with a season-high 17 hits overall, but just couldn't figure out ways to plate enough of those baserunners. They stranded 13 in all.

The bottom of the order, which consisted of Jeff Baker and Koyie Hill, really had it going. Baker had a double and a triple against his former team, and Hill had three hits and an RBI.

A win tonight would give the Cubs a 5-5 road trip, which to me is perfectly acceptable. Tom Gorzelanny will try to follow up a very successful start against the Reds, going up against Jorge De La Rosa who has a 5.00 ERA and is coming off a very poor start against the Phillies.

By the way, if you're feeling down about the Cubs at all, just tell yourself, "At least we're not the Red Sox." Boston went into the Bronx down 2 1/2 games in the AL East, and proceeded to get swept in a four-game series. At one point, they went over 30 innings without scoring a run. They finally scored two in the 8th last night to take a 2-1 lead, and promptly allowed four runs in the bottom of the inning on their way to a loss. So the Red Sox suddenly find themselves 6 1/2 games out of first.

Kane it be true?

I sincerely hope the allegations about Patrick Kane aren't true. I don't care about hockey, but for any superstar athlete (or any person, for that matter) to beat up a cab driver over any amount of money, let alone 20 freakin' cents, is unconscionable. If it's true, this will be quite the scar on the face of the Blackhawks organization.

Major momentum

Tiger Woods won for the second straight week, conquering the Bridgestone Invitational for the seventh time. It was the 70th win of his career, bringing him within 12 of Sam Snead's all-time record. Tiger's surely glad to have some momentum heading into this week's PGA Championship, the year's final major.

Cubs get slammed

Holy cow.

Back in the '90s, that phrase was uttered (get it? cuz cows have utters) by Harry Caray on the heels of something positive, with an exclamation point after it. But I use it today to express my dejection over yet another lackluster performance by the Cubs.

Where to begin? The Cubs lost 8-2 Saturday, with one of their runs resulting from an error on an easy grounder.

The three "power guys" in the lineup--Soriano, Lee and Soto--were a combined 0-10 with four strikeouts. The Cubs have not hit a home run since Tuesday.

Seldom used David Patton showed why he's seldom used, coming on in a 3-1 game and proceeding to give up a single, a walk, and another walk to load the bases for Albert Pujols. He then threw a giant meatball right over the plate on the first pitch, and Pujols launched a grand slam out to left to put the game out of reach. The cameras didn't show it, but I assume Patton took a tape recorder out of his back pocket and said, "Note to self: Don't walk the bases loaded to get to Albert Pujols." The grand slam gave Pujols over 1,000 RBI in his career.

I'm not out on the ledge or anything, but it's worth noting that this four-game losing streak has pushed the Cubs four games back of the Cardinals and into fourth place in the Central.

With Ramirez, Bradley and Marmol sidelined, Lou Piniella is essentially operating with a 22-man roster. Even when Bradley does step into pinch-hit (as he did Friday), he has to be replaced with a pinch-runner when he reaches base (as was the case Friday). Why on Earth did we not DL Bradley earlier? He has started once since incurring his injury April 12, and there seems to be no timetable whatsoever for his return.

Joey Gathright, who seems to have one role on this team--pinch-hit rarely and pinch-run slightly less rarely--got picked off Saturday. While it's still early, Gathright seems to be a completely pointless offseason addition.

There's no question that the Cubs' recent struggles can be partly blamed on injuries. But it's also clear that this roster has some serious question marks. Bradley seems destined to spend significant time out with injury, and that leaves us with the apparently useless Gathright and Micah Hoffpauir--who may as well not bring his glove with him to the outfield--as backups. When Ramirez gets hurt, we're forced to use either Miles or Fontenot at third, and while they're serviceable at that position, the infield defense becomes highly suspect in that scenario.

Al Yellon over at Bleed Cubbie Blue made a very interesting suggestion today: release Gathright and pick up Jim Edmonds. Despite his 19 HR and 45 RBI in 85 games with the Cubs last year, Edmonds was not picked up by anyone in the offseason. Granted, Edmonds will turn 39 this year, but if Gathright is really going to be limited (due to Piniella's preference of Gathright's own ineptitude) to such trivial duty with the Cubs, picking up Edmonds couldn't hurt.

Let's find a silver lining in this mess:

Fukudome had two more hits and is batting .345.

Sean Marshall pitched a real solid game. He had one bad inning in which he gave up three runs, but he had a quality start with six innings pitched, three runs, one walk and five strikeouts.

The Cajun Connection reconnected with a combined 4-8, and both Cubs runs were driven in by Theriot.

So, we move forward. Harden will take the ball Sunday against former Cub Todd Wellemeyer, who has had one good start sandwiched between two bad ones this season. The Cubs need a win to avoid falling under .500 for the first time.

MLB notes
We can all agree that sometimes the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry is overhyped and that their games are overly ubiquitous on national broadcasts. However, you have to admit that the matchups live up to the hype more often than not.

Friday, the Yankees took a two-run lead into the bottom of the 9th at Fenway, but Mariano Rivera blew yet another save against the Sox when Jason Bay hit a two-out home run over the Monster to tie it. Kevin Youkilis later won it for Bahstin with a solo shot in the 11th.

Saturday's game featured A.J. Burnett against Josh Beckett, but you wouldn't know it by the 16-11 final score in favor of the Red Sox. Stay with me here: the Yankees went up 6-0 early, but the Sox put up five in the 4th to climb to within one. The Sox added three more in the next inning to go up 8-6, but the Yankees responded by tying it up in the 6th. Boston promptly took the lead in the bottom of the inning, but the Yankees took the lead right back in the 7th, going up 10-9. But the Sox would have none of it--Mike Lowell hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the inning to make it 12-10. Robinson Cano hit a home run in the 8th, but the Sox tacked on four more in the 8th to win it 16-11.

In case you weren't counting, that's five total lead changes. The game, which took 4 hr 21 min to complete, featured six home runs and 28 total hits. At least one run was scored in nine of the final eleven half innings. Already this season, the Yankees have allowed run totals of 10, 15, 16 and 22.

Did you know ...
The Red Sox have won nine straight.

The Cardinals and Dodgers are tied for the best record in baseball (13-5).

MLB predictions

NL Central
Cubs

The Cubs core returns from '08, and they should hold off the Cardinals and Brewers.

NL East
Phillies

The Mets spent the offseason fixing their primary problem in '08--the bullpen--by acquiring J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez. But their rotation is a question mark, and the Phillies' is not.

NL West
Diamondbacks

Webb and Haren return, and their young hitters will continue to come into their own. I came this close to picking the Rockies based solely on the fact that they acquired Jason Marquis, who has made the playoffs every year of his nine-year career. I also think the Giants could be a surprise team.

NL Wild Card
Cardinals

NL playoffs
Cubs over Diamondbacks
Cardinals over Phillies

Cubs over Cardinals

AL Central
Indians

A strong offense, a new closer (Kerry Wood), and a rotation led by Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona. The Twins have a healthy Francisco Liriano and should compete, and the Tigers, with all that talent, can't be terrible two years in a row, right? This division should be up for grabs.

AL East
Yankees

What can I say? They have a $207 million payroll. The Red Sox and Rays are certainly no slouches either.

AL West
Mariners

The Angels are getting old, and it's time for a new champion out West.

AL Wild Card
Red Sox

AL playoffs
Yankees over Mariners
Red Sox over Indians

Red Sox over Yankees

World Series
Cubs over Red Sox

Prospectus Projections

Baseball Prospectus unloaded their 2009 predictions today (click post title to visit projected standings). For the record, BP predicted 4 of 8 playoff teams correctly in '08, so, like all sports predictions, they're completely worthless.

For '09, they have the Cubs racking up 95 victories and winning the NL Central by 12 games over the Brewers (me likey). BP had the Cubs winning 89 games last year, while they actually won 97. Therefore, we can add eight victories to their projections, and safely assume the Cubs will win 103 games in 2009.

Also according to BP, the Mets and D'Backs win their respective divisions (which they also predicted in '08, incorrectly), while the Braves sneak in there to win the wild card.

In the AL, it's Boston, Cleveland, and a surprising Oakland team, along with the Yankees winning the Wild Card by five games over the Rays.

I'll address these and some of the other projections in the coming days and weeks, and make my own boldly inaccurate predictions as the season approaches. For now, let's just bask in the glory of baseball projections in general, along with the thought of a third straight NL Central title for the Cubs.