I suppose I'm happy the Cubs re-signed John Grabow. I mean, it's nice to have a solid lefty in the 'pen, but I'm less than ebullient because it's hard to justify $7.5 million over two years for a solid lefty out of the 'pen. He had a good year with both the Pirates and Cubs, his second good year in a row. But the four years prior to that were less than stellar--his ERA was over 4.50 three of those four years.
On the bright side, Hendry did a nice job getting anything at all for Aaron Heilman. Trading for him last offseason was clearly a gamble; after all, he sported a 5.21 ERA in 2008. And he proved to be a disposable commodity in 2009, even though he did finish strong. So to get any kind of return on him (lefty Scott Maine and 1B Ryne White) is a win. Plus, one of the prospects' names is Ryne, like Ryne Sandberg. So he must be good.
Showing posts with label Aaron Heilman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Heilman. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Not an August performance
Monday: Astros 5, Cubs 3
What do you think Rich Harden was thinking about when he went to bed Sunday night? Was he hoping to be traded to Minnesota, where the Twins are 3.5 games behind the Tigers and where his good friend Justin Morneau resides? Or was he hoping to find himself on the mound at Wrigley Monday night, keeping open the possibility that he will remain in Chicago beyond 2009.
We may never know the answer to that, but while the Twins were dealing a knockout blow to the White Sox (the Sox traded Jim Thome and Jose Contreras after the game), the Cubs were turning in another meek performance en route to a 5-3 loss and an 11-17 August. It was the almost-former Cubs night, as Harden went five innings and then Aaron Heilman, who was claimed off waivers by the Giants over the weekend, came in for the next two. Former closer Kevin Gregg pitched the eighth and pretty new Cub John Grabow threw a perfect ninth.
Piniella says he'll play Koyie Hill "a lot more" instead of Geovany Soto, and I can't blame him. I just hope Soto finds his 2008 Rookie of the Year form when the calendar turns to 2010.
Back to Jim Thome getting traded: he went to the Dodgers, which makes me wonder where he's gonna play. Having played just 28 games at first base since 2005 (he was strictly a DH with the White Sox), are they just going to use him off the bench? I'm not sure that Thome, who has 23 home runs and 74 RBI this year, would be too thrilled with that.
Speaking of trades by the Dodgers...
L.A. also picked up starter Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks, and the best part of that trade is that Jon Garland found out during their game last night--against the Dodgers. So all Garland had to do was switch dugouts!
I predict that I'm about to toot my own horn
While the Twins apparently killed the White Sox' chances of making the playoffs, the Cubs have been turning twin killings at a rate very pleasurable to me this season. That's because heading into last night's game, the Cubs were on pace to turn 149 double plays. That happens to be the exact number that I predicted prior to the season.
What do you think Rich Harden was thinking about when he went to bed Sunday night? Was he hoping to be traded to Minnesota, where the Twins are 3.5 games behind the Tigers and where his good friend Justin Morneau resides? Or was he hoping to find himself on the mound at Wrigley Monday night, keeping open the possibility that he will remain in Chicago beyond 2009.
We may never know the answer to that, but while the Twins were dealing a knockout blow to the White Sox (the Sox traded Jim Thome and Jose Contreras after the game), the Cubs were turning in another meek performance en route to a 5-3 loss and an 11-17 August. It was the almost-former Cubs night, as Harden went five innings and then Aaron Heilman, who was claimed off waivers by the Giants over the weekend, came in for the next two. Former closer Kevin Gregg pitched the eighth and pretty new Cub John Grabow threw a perfect ninth.
Piniella says he'll play Koyie Hill "a lot more" instead of Geovany Soto, and I can't blame him. I just hope Soto finds his 2008 Rookie of the Year form when the calendar turns to 2010.
Back to Jim Thome getting traded: he went to the Dodgers, which makes me wonder where he's gonna play. Having played just 28 games at first base since 2005 (he was strictly a DH with the White Sox), are they just going to use him off the bench? I'm not sure that Thome, who has 23 home runs and 74 RBI this year, would be too thrilled with that.
Speaking of trades by the Dodgers...
L.A. also picked up starter Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks, and the best part of that trade is that Jon Garland found out during their game last night--against the Dodgers. So all Garland had to do was switch dugouts!
I predict that I'm about to toot my own hornWhile the Twins apparently killed the White Sox' chances of making the playoffs, the Cubs have been turning twin killings at a rate very pleasurable to me this season. That's because heading into last night's game, the Cubs were on pace to turn 149 double plays. That happens to be the exact number that I predicted prior to the season.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Harden and Heilman staying put
says Bruce Levine.
If the Cubs could have gotten a couple top prospects from the Twins, it would have been well worth it, in my opinion. But Twins GM Bill Smith was presumably (and understandably) leery about giving up top prospects for what could have turned out to be a five-week rental.
Getting absolutely anything for Heilman would have been worth it, but Brian Sabean must have made his way to his computer this morning and realized Heilman sucks.
If the Cubs could have gotten a couple top prospects from the Twins, it would have been well worth it, in my opinion. But Twins GM Bill Smith was presumably (and understandably) leery about giving up top prospects for what could have turned out to be a five-week rental.
Getting absolutely anything for Heilman would have been worth it, but Brian Sabean must have made his way to his computer this morning and realized Heilman sucks.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Wood you believe it?
Saturday: Cubs 6, Indians 5 (13 inn.)
I can't recall a more exciting three-game stretch. Three come-from-behind, walk-off victories. One against the Sox, two against Kerry Wood and the Indians. Two of them extra inning games. Wow.
I feel bad that Wood has had to endure two blown saves at his old stomping grounds, but them's the breaks. The Cubs finally look like a team that believes it can win every game.
All right, it's time to give some "mad props," as the kids say. Derrek Lee now has four home runs in the last three games, and his multi-homer game Friday was his first since 2006. He has also surpassed Theriot for the highest average on the team (.288), and is creeping his way toward the .300 mark. I don't know where he went for six months, but right now, he looks like the Derrek Lee the Cubs signed to a five-year, $65 million extension in 2006.
And props are due to Bob Brenly as well--he called Micah Hoffpauir's pinch-hit home run in the 6th after semi-calling Derrek Lee's home run in the 5th (he said: "You don't have to wait until the 8th to hit a home run, Derrek."). He must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
This is why Marmol cannot be an effective reliever with all these walks. Bringing him in with the bases loaded was almost sure to result in a run-scoring walk. It's one thing when he starts an inning and can get out of his own jam, but he's made himself practically useless when brought in in a tough situation.
Heilman had similar issues, walking three in his first inning of work. The Cubs' bullpen has walked more batters than only five other major league teams. I still think the Cubs will have to make a move to shore up their bullpen if they're going to win the division.
Cubs notes
-I appreciate the effort from Bradley trying to go first to third on a D Lee single in the 1st, but it was still a bad baserunning play--you can't make the third out at third base.
-Incredibly, the highest OBP on the team is owned by Fukudome (.399).
-Saturday marked the Cubs' 10th extra-inning affair in 64 games.
I can't recall a more exciting three-game stretch. Three come-from-behind, walk-off victories. One against the Sox, two against Kerry Wood and the Indians. Two of them extra inning games. Wow.
I feel bad that Wood has had to endure two blown saves at his old stomping grounds, but them's the breaks. The Cubs finally look like a team that believes it can win every game.
All right, it's time to give some "mad props," as the kids say. Derrek Lee now has four home runs in the last three games, and his multi-homer game Friday was his first since 2006. He has also surpassed Theriot for the highest average on the team (.288), and is creeping his way toward the .300 mark. I don't know where he went for six months, but right now, he looks like the Derrek Lee the Cubs signed to a five-year, $65 million extension in 2006.And props are due to Bob Brenly as well--he called Micah Hoffpauir's pinch-hit home run in the 6th after semi-calling Derrek Lee's home run in the 5th (he said: "You don't have to wait until the 8th to hit a home run, Derrek."). He must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
This is why Marmol cannot be an effective reliever with all these walks. Bringing him in with the bases loaded was almost sure to result in a run-scoring walk. It's one thing when he starts an inning and can get out of his own jam, but he's made himself practically useless when brought in in a tough situation.
Heilman had similar issues, walking three in his first inning of work. The Cubs' bullpen has walked more batters than only five other major league teams. I still think the Cubs will have to make a move to shore up their bullpen if they're going to win the division.
Cubs notes
-I appreciate the effort from Bradley trying to go first to third on a D Lee single in the 1st, but it was still a bad baserunning play--you can't make the third out at third base.
-Incredibly, the highest OBP on the team is owned by Fukudome (.399).
-Saturday marked the Cubs' 10th extra-inning affair in 64 games.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Mayday! Mayday! I mean, May Day.
It's the first of May, May Day, also my sister Mandy's birthday. And while some Cubs fans are screaming "Mayday!" because the Cubs are in 5th place, I'm simply taking May Day as an opportunity to analyze the first month of Cubs baseball.
The Cubs were 17-10 last year in the month of April, tied for first in the Central with the Cardinals. This year, they sit at 10-11 and if you check the standings, you'll see that they're just one line above the last-place Astros. Not real good, right?
Well, no, April wasn't real good. But it's too early to panic. Some teams who weren't in first place on May 1, 2008, include the Dodgers, Phillies and Rays. And the Dodgers, White Sox and Phillies were just one, one and two games over .500, respectively (they all won their divisions). Also, keep in mind that the Cubs were 10-14 in April '07, but they of course turned it around and won the first of their back-to-back division titles.
The Cubs as a team have played 21 games, but several individual players have missed significant time, including:
Ramirez (8 games)
Bradley (7)
Soto (6)
Also, the Cubs have the payroll flexibility to make necessary changes as the season moves forward, a luxury many teams don't have. And with the apparent lack of depth on this roster, Hendry will no doubt be taking advantage of said flexibility in the coming months. The Cubs will almost certainly need another reliever, and while Gathright has gotten a bit of a raw deal in terms of opportunities to prove himself, I'd be surprised if he were on the roster come August.
Positives
Fukudome: 7th in the NL in average, 5th in OBP, 10th in slugging, 9th in OPS. Heading into the season, Fukudome was one of the biggest question marks on the roster. Through A
pril, he's been the biggest exclamation point.
Soriano: The weirdest thing about Soriano's hot start is his consistency. He had just four games in April without a hit. He's just one behind Pujols for the league lead in runs scored, and his seven home runs represent his fourth highest monthly total as a Cub.
Ramirez: .358, three home runs and 14 RBI. And though ESPN says his middle name is Nin, I'm pretty sure it's actually Clutch.
Heilman: He leads the team in relief appearances (12), and don't be misled by his 4.91 ERA--it was 0.82 before the Marlins lit him up on Thursday.
There's not a whole lot more positive things to say about the pitching, which is why the Cubs rank 12th in the NL in ERA (starters are 10th, relievers are 12th). One good thing, though, is that Cub relievers have pitched the third fewest innings in the league.
Negatives
Carlos Zambrano didn't have a hit until Tuesday, yet he still has a higher batting average than Bradley, Fontenot, Lee, Johnson, Miles, Soto, and Gathright. And I'm referring to the .231 average Big Z had before pinch-hitting Thursday and raising it to .286.
Bradley: It's been well-documented, but thus far Bradley has lived up to all the negative hype, and none of the positive. He's been suspended (a suspension he appealed rather than serving it while he was hurt), ejected and injured, and has just four hits in 14 games. Is he going to hit .118 all year? Of course not. But he needs to pick it up and make significant contributions for this team to win.
Fontenot: He's batting just .232, and while he's shown some "pop" with four home runs, it can't be ignored that the reason Hendry felt comfortable trading Mark DeRosa was because he felt Fontenot could step in full-time at second base. For the record, DeRosa is batting .236 with five home runs and 18 RBI with the Indians.
Lee: He's batting just .189 with one home run. I'll refrain from further criticism b
ecause you've heard it here before.
Soto: Last year's NL Rookie of the Year has looked like a completely different person. In 15 games, he's batting .111 with no home runs and just two RBI. Amazingly, Koyie Hill has completely outplayed him, batting .323 with one home run and six RBI in half the at-bats.
Rotation: Apologies to Sean Marshall who has the best ERA of the bunch (3.32), but the rotation's ERA is 4.55, their record just 7-6. Harden has thrown just 21 innings in four starts; Dempster and Zambrano have ERAs over 4.50.
Relievers: I realize the negatives are really piling up here, but you can't ignore a 4.88 relief ERA. You also can't ignore that we have just three saves as a team, or that Angel Guzman is the only reliever with an ERA under 4.00.
Well, that was cathartic. So why am I not shouting "Mayday!" while jumping ship? Because with struggling starters, terrible relief pitching, and very minor contributions from Bradley, Lee and Soto, the Cubs are just one game under .500. Teams like the Angels (9-12), Indians (8-14), Rays (9-14) and Mets (9-12)--who are also expected to compete--have fared even worse.
The offense may not be as productive as we anticipated, but it isn't going to be as bad as it was in April for the entire season. Nearly all of the starting pitchers will almost assuredly improve on their April numbers, and while the relief corps remains a huge question mark, one can hope that it will improve once Marmol is healthy and Samardzija gets settled in.
My biggest concern is that the Cardinals look like a real contender, as I thought they might. Despite Chris Carpenter finding his way to the DL once again, the Cards are an ML-best 16-7. However, the Cardinals were 18-11 in April last year, but eventually faded and finished 11.5 games out of first.
It was not a very pleasant April in Wrigleyville, but it's time to take a deep breath. We're only 21 games into the season, and the calendar wants you to know something--there's no need to panic, it's May Day.
The Cubs were 17-10 last year in the month of April, tied for first in the Central with the Cardinals. This year, they sit at 10-11 and if you check the standings, you'll see that they're just one line above the last-place Astros. Not real good, right?
Well, no, April wasn't real good. But it's too early to panic. Some teams who weren't in first place on May 1, 2008, include the Dodgers, Phillies and Rays. And the Dodgers, White Sox and Phillies were just one, one and two games over .500, respectively (they all won their divisions). Also, keep in mind that the Cubs were 10-14 in April '07, but they of course turned it around and won the first of their back-to-back division titles.
The Cubs as a team have played 21 games, but several individual players have missed significant time, including:
Ramirez (8 games)
Bradley (7)
Soto (6)
Also, the Cubs have the payroll flexibility to make necessary changes as the season moves forward, a luxury many teams don't have. And with the apparent lack of depth on this roster, Hendry will no doubt be taking advantage of said flexibility in the coming months. The Cubs will almost certainly need another reliever, and while Gathright has gotten a bit of a raw deal in terms of opportunities to prove himself, I'd be surprised if he were on the roster come August.
Positives
Fukudome: 7th in the NL in average, 5th in OBP, 10th in slugging, 9th in OPS. Heading into the season, Fukudome was one of the biggest question marks on the roster. Through A
pril, he's been the biggest exclamation point.Soriano: The weirdest thing about Soriano's hot start is his consistency. He had just four games in April without a hit. He's just one behind Pujols for the league lead in runs scored, and his seven home runs represent his fourth highest monthly total as a Cub.
Ramirez: .358, three home runs and 14 RBI. And though ESPN says his middle name is Nin, I'm pretty sure it's actually Clutch.
Heilman: He leads the team in relief appearances (12), and don't be misled by his 4.91 ERA--it was 0.82 before the Marlins lit him up on Thursday.
There's not a whole lot more positive things to say about the pitching, which is why the Cubs rank 12th in the NL in ERA (starters are 10th, relievers are 12th). One good thing, though, is that Cub relievers have pitched the third fewest innings in the league.
Negatives
Carlos Zambrano didn't have a hit until Tuesday, yet he still has a higher batting average than Bradley, Fontenot, Lee, Johnson, Miles, Soto, and Gathright. And I'm referring to the .231 average Big Z had before pinch-hitting Thursday and raising it to .286.
Bradley: It's been well-documented, but thus far Bradley has lived up to all the negative hype, and none of the positive. He's been suspended (a suspension he appealed rather than serving it while he was hurt), ejected and injured, and has just four hits in 14 games. Is he going to hit .118 all year? Of course not. But he needs to pick it up and make significant contributions for this team to win.
Fontenot: He's batting just .232, and while he's shown some "pop" with four home runs, it can't be ignored that the reason Hendry felt comfortable trading Mark DeRosa was because he felt Fontenot could step in full-time at second base. For the record, DeRosa is batting .236 with five home runs and 18 RBI with the Indians.
Lee: He's batting just .189 with one home run. I'll refrain from further criticism b
ecause you've heard it here before.Soto: Last year's NL Rookie of the Year has looked like a completely different person. In 15 games, he's batting .111 with no home runs and just two RBI. Amazingly, Koyie Hill has completely outplayed him, batting .323 with one home run and six RBI in half the at-bats.
Rotation: Apologies to Sean Marshall who has the best ERA of the bunch (3.32), but the rotation's ERA is 4.55, their record just 7-6. Harden has thrown just 21 innings in four starts; Dempster and Zambrano have ERAs over 4.50.
Relievers: I realize the negatives are really piling up here, but you can't ignore a 4.88 relief ERA. You also can't ignore that we have just three saves as a team, or that Angel Guzman is the only reliever with an ERA under 4.00.
Well, that was cathartic. So why am I not shouting "Mayday!" while jumping ship? Because with struggling starters, terrible relief pitching, and very minor contributions from Bradley, Lee and Soto, the Cubs are just one game under .500. Teams like the Angels (9-12), Indians (8-14), Rays (9-14) and Mets (9-12)--who are also expected to compete--have fared even worse.
The offense may not be as productive as we anticipated, but it isn't going to be as bad as it was in April for the entire season. Nearly all of the starting pitchers will almost assuredly improve on their April numbers, and while the relief corps remains a huge question mark, one can hope that it will improve once Marmol is healthy and Samardzija gets settled in.
My biggest concern is that the Cardinals look like a real contender, as I thought they might. Despite Chris Carpenter finding his way to the DL once again, the Cards are an ML-best 16-7. However, the Cardinals were 18-11 in April last year, but eventually faded and finished 11.5 games out of first.
It was not a very pleasant April in Wrigleyville, but it's time to take a deep breath. We're only 21 games into the season, and the calendar wants you to know something--there's no need to panic, it's May Day.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Puh-lease, lineup
Lou Piniella was not kidding when he said he was going to tweak his lineup for the Cardinals series. Five of the spots were different from what we've typically seen so far.
Old lineup
Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Hoffpauir
Ramirez
Fontenot
Soto
Theriot
New lineup (* indicates change)
Theriot*
Fukudome
Soriano*
Ramirez*
Lee*
Fontenot
Soto
Johnson*
Theriot batting leadoff (yay!)? Lee dropped to five (yay!)? Soriano batting third?
That is some serious change. For the most part, I like it. But in the end, it's not as much about where players are hitting as it's a matter of how well they're hitting. And right now, no one on the Cubs is doing much of anything at the plate. Ramirez has been carrying much of the load, and he left Friday's game with a strained left calf. He's out for Saturday, leaving the Cubs with no back-up infielders.
After a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, the Cubs have now scored four runs in their last three games. The futility has gone on long enough that you have to figure when the Cubs finally do break out of it, they're going to do it in a big way. Saturday would be a good time for it, as they'll be facing Mitchell Boggs, who has six career starts to his name and a career 7.25 ERA.
Cubs notes
-I gotta admit, I'm already getting real sick of Milton Bradley. He's way less fun than his family-friendly name would suggest. He has started just one game since April 12, has exactly one hit on the season, boycotted the media for approximately one week, has been ejected from
one game, and has been suspended by the league once. But perhaps what's most upsetting is that he's living up to his reputation of being a distraction. He's got this whole paranoia thing goin' on, like everyone in the world is after him for no apparent reason.
And why oh why will he not just serve his two-game suspension while he's too hurt to play anyways? Granted, that may be his status the entire season, so I suppose we shouldn't worry about that too much.
-Aaron Heilman has been a real bright spot out of the 'pen. He has appeared in 10 games, has gotten in the win column twice, and his ERA is 0.93. Heilman's success will be even more vital the next few days, given that Marmol left Friday's game with a sore knee and will miss at least 4-5 days.
-The Cajun Connection is really struggling to connect right now. Fontenot is 3-30 dating back to April 11, while Theriot is one for his last 13.
-The Cubs have turned 12 double plays, and are on pace for 129 this season.
Did you know ...
-The Phillies have allowed at least one home run in all 15 of their games this season, an MLB record to begin a season.
-The Pirates lead the National League in ERA.
Old lineup
Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Hoffpauir
Ramirez
Fontenot
Soto
Theriot
New lineup (* indicates change)
Theriot*
Fukudome
Soriano*
Ramirez*
Lee*
Fontenot
Soto
Johnson*
Theriot batting leadoff (yay!)? Lee dropped to five (yay!)? Soriano batting third?
That is some serious change. For the most part, I like it. But in the end, it's not as much about where players are hitting as it's a matter of how well they're hitting. And right now, no one on the Cubs is doing much of anything at the plate. Ramirez has been carrying much of the load, and he left Friday's game with a strained left calf. He's out for Saturday, leaving the Cubs with no back-up infielders.
After a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, the Cubs have now scored four runs in their last three games. The futility has gone on long enough that you have to figure when the Cubs finally do break out of it, they're going to do it in a big way. Saturday would be a good time for it, as they'll be facing Mitchell Boggs, who has six career starts to his name and a career 7.25 ERA.
Cubs notes
-I gotta admit, I'm already getting real sick of Milton Bradley. He's way less fun than his family-friendly name would suggest. He has started just one game since April 12, has exactly one hit on the season, boycotted the media for approximately one week, has been ejected from
one game, and has been suspended by the league once. But perhaps what's most upsetting is that he's living up to his reputation of being a distraction. He's got this whole paranoia thing goin' on, like everyone in the world is after him for no apparent reason.And why oh why will he not just serve his two-game suspension while he's too hurt to play anyways? Granted, that may be his status the entire season, so I suppose we shouldn't worry about that too much.
-Aaron Heilman has been a real bright spot out of the 'pen. He has appeared in 10 games, has gotten in the win column twice, and his ERA is 0.93. Heilman's success will be even more vital the next few days, given that Marmol left Friday's game with a sore knee and will miss at least 4-5 days.
-The Cajun Connection is really struggling to connect right now. Fontenot is 3-30 dating back to April 11, while Theriot is one for his last 13.
-The Cubs have turned 12 double plays, and are on pace for 129 this season.
Did you know ...
-The Phillies have allowed at least one home run in all 15 of their games this season, an MLB record to begin a season.
-The Pirates lead the National League in ERA.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Piniella Marshals the rotation
Piniella unsurprisingly announced Thursday that Sean Marshall will be the Cubs' 5th starter. This gives the Cubs two lefties in the rotation, and signifies that Aaron Heilman will take over the 7th/8th inning role, setting up for Gregg and Marmol.Marshall has a decent ceiling, and could probably be a 3rd or 4th starter on many teams. The rotation is in good shape.
As for the bullpen, Piniella said there's essentially a six-man race for two remaining spots. With Heilman, Neal Cotts, Gregg and Marmol locked in, and Luis Vizcaino in good shape, it's down to Jeff Samardzija (9.90 spring ERA), Chad Gaudin (11.17), Angel Guzman (14.40), Kevin Hart (6.14), David Patton (1.17) and lefty Jason Waddell (1.13) for the last two spots.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Spring training position battles
Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez got into the swing of things today with their first spring homers, and the Cubs won 6-4 behind three perfect innings from Sean Marshall as well as scoreless appearances from Neal Cotts, Luis Vizcaino and Kevin Gregg.
There isn't a whole lot of news out of Mesa this year, partly because the Cubs roster is so set. You can pretty much bet your house on the following players breaking camp:
C: Soto
IF: Lee, Miles, Fontenot, Theriot, Ramirez
OF: Soriano, Johnson, Fukudome, Bradley
SP: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden
RP: Marshall (could start), Vizcaino, Gregg, Marmol, Heilman, Gaudin
That's 20 players, which means there are five spots up for grabs, and some of these are pretty darn set, but not set enough to fulfill the above criteria of being worthy of "betting your house." Apartment, maybe, but not house. Not in this economy.
Anyways, this situation is not exactly a recipe for spring training excitement, especially when you factor in that the Cubs are playing 750 spring training games this year. But here are the decisions Lou will have to make this spring:
- 5th starter: Marshall vs. Samardzija vs. Heilman (side note: since Lou Piniella has to make this decision, could we call it a "manager a trois"?), with Samardzija a slight question mark to make the team, as it's possible the Cubs would prefer him in AAA preparing to fill in as a starter if needed, as opposed to coming out of the 'pen with the big club.
- Reserve 1st baseman: Hoffpauir vs. Jake Fox, with Hoffpauir having a significant edge because he's a lefty and hit .342 in the majors last year.
- Lefty reliever: Cotts vs. Mike Stanton, with Cotts having a huge leg up due t
o Stanton being 112 years old (actually 41) and not having pitched since '07, when he had a 5.93 ERA, and he has a 9.00 ERA thus far in spring. Translation: Mike Stanton is old and bad.
- Reserve outfielder: Joey Gathright vs. Sam Fuld/So Taguchi, with Gathright having the edge. If MLB ever allows cars to be used on the field, Gathright will definitely be on the team: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cySfw8f0beg
- Starting centerfielder: For now, the plan is to platoon Fukudome and Johnson, but perhaps Lou will use spring training to help determine who should start the majority of games. That being said, their performance during the regular season will likely mean more than spring, especially with Kosuke playing in the WBC this month.
- Starting second baseman: Miles vs. Fontenot. When Piniella mentioned the lineup he's currently got in mind, he put Miles in the two hole. I would have thought Fontenot would start after his .305/.395 campaign last year. Lou has said he hopes to get both of them a bunch of at-bats during the season, but perhaps spring will vault one above the other before Opening Day arrives.
- Reliever if Samardzija goes to AAA:
- Reserve catcher: Paul Bako (remember him?) vs. Koyie Hill. I don't even want to talk about this one. These guys both suck. Hill is 29 and has a .190 career average. Paul Bako is thirty-freakin'-six and weighs in at .231. Both have thrown out under 30% of base runners in their careers. What happened to Henry Blanco? Crap, I got carried away with anger and just talked about Bako and Hill for like seven sentences. If Soto gets injured for an extended period of time this year, are we allowed to just use the backstop as a catcher and skip that position in the batting order? If someone knows the rule on this, please let me know.
There's a good chance we'll see Bako behind the plate, Hoffpauir off the bench, Mike Stanton's arm fall off in the next three weeks (so Cotts in the bullpen), and Joey Gathright patrolling the outfield. That leaves us with the 5th starter battle and the relief spot associated with it. Piniella has said Marshall gets the first crack at starting, and if that's how it shakes out, my guess is the Cubs decide to have Samardzija throwing flames out of the 'pen (2.28 ERA last year), which shores up every spot on the 25-man roster.
These certainly aren't guarantees, but either way, there isn't a whole lot of drama in camp this year unless a trade is made, someone gets injured, or Milton Bradley punches Lou Piniella in the trachea at some point. Lack of drama is not a bad thing; the Cubs have a lot of talent and a lot of veteran players, and there just aren't that many decisions to be made.
I'll be watching the 5th starter competition (previous blog post here), Miles and Fontenot, and Hoffpauir/Fox. I will be trying my darndest to completely ignore Paul "I really wasn't all that good the first time I was on the Cubs" Bako and Koyie "I batted above .250 one time, but that's because I only had three at-bats" Hill.
It's great not to have 10 roster spots to fill and huge questions to deal with during spring training. Sit back and enjoy it!
UPDATE: Piniella said Tuesday that Fukudome will start against right-handers. I can't say I feel strongly about this one way or the other. Fukudome looked like a great slap-hitter and on-base guy in the first couple months of the season, and then completely fell off the table. With a whole year in the states under his belt and a year of major league experience behind him, he almost can't be worse in 2009. At the same time, Johnson was extremely productive in his role last season, so I don't want to see him get limited at-bats this year. Like I said above, I still think their performances during the regular season will dictate their playing time.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
"Start" of Spring Training
Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden--that's all set. But who will replace the supreme averageness of Jason Marquis as the Cubs' 5th starter? Piniella is in a good position, with two solid options and a potential wild card in 24-year-old Jeff Samardzija. Though of the three, only Marshall has appeared as a starter more often than a reliever in his career.
Heilman, 30, had been with the Mets his whole career, but was traded to the M
ariners in December and then quickly flipped to the Cubs in January. Heilman was traded after struggling as a reliever in '08, going 3-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (walks + hits/inning pitched). However, he posted a 3.27 total ERA in the three seasons prior. Those numbers came mostly out of the 'pen, as he started just seven games in that time frame, all in '05. Heilman has not started since that year.
Marshall is a 26-year-old lefty who has provided versatility for the Cubs since coming up from the Min
ors in 2006. He has appeared in 79 games with the Cubs, 50 as a starter. Last year was arguably his best, as he posted: 3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Marshall has generally fared better out of the 'pen (3.03 vs. 4.80 ERA).
It's actually somewhat ridiculous how similar these two pitchers are with their production. A look at their career numbers (Marshall listed first):
W-L ERA WHIP
16-22 4.62 1.41
22-33 4.24 1.33
More food for thought: Marshall, as more of a finesse pitcher, will post fewer strikeouts, but has also exhibited slightly better control. (Marshall listed first)
K/9 IP BB/9 IP
6.18 3.6
7.90 3.7
So: both have split time between starting and relieving, and both have been better as relievers. Their career win percentages are two percentage points apart, their ERAs and WHIPs are very similar, and Heilman is likely to strike out a few more guys, while walking slightly fewer.
Well, I'm exhausted. One thing to consider is that if Marshall starts, Neal Cotts is likely to be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Did you hear that? I said: Neal Cotts could be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Add in the fact that Cotts is actually better against righties than lefties, and this could be a serious factor in the final decision.
But wait: our wild card candidate. Jeff Samardzija came up last July and appeared in 26
games. He was exciting to watch, putting up a 2.28 ERA and notching 25 Ks in 27.2 IP. However, he also walked 15, and a similar struggle with control in a starter role would severely limit his ability to go deep into ballgames. Given that Zambrano and Harden tend to struggle in that arena, I'd prefer to see a 5th starter who can eat up some innings.
To me, it seems silly to prematurely choose between Heilman and Marshall, since neither really stands out. But as I said above, this is a nice situation for Lou. Both have the ability to perform satisfactorily in the 5th starter role, and whoever ends up in the 'pen will provide a nice insurance policy when another starter gets injured or struggles. Lou has rightly declared that he'll use spring training as a forum to help answer this particular question.
I lean toward Marshall because he's had more experience as a starter, but would have no problem seeing Heilman take the ball every fifth day. Ultimately, this is just one of many reasons to be excited about spring training baseball, which starts in just three short days (vs. Dodgers, Wednesday, 2:00 CST). And by the way, Samardzija will start the first game.
Heilman, 30, had been with the Mets his whole career, but was traded to the M
ariners in December and then quickly flipped to the Cubs in January. Heilman was traded after struggling as a reliever in '08, going 3-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (walks + hits/inning pitched). However, he posted a 3.27 total ERA in the three seasons prior. Those numbers came mostly out of the 'pen, as he started just seven games in that time frame, all in '05. Heilman has not started since that year.Marshall is a 26-year-old lefty who has provided versatility for the Cubs since coming up from the Min
ors in 2006. He has appeared in 79 games with the Cubs, 50 as a starter. Last year was arguably his best, as he posted: 3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Marshall has generally fared better out of the 'pen (3.03 vs. 4.80 ERA).It's actually somewhat ridiculous how similar these two pitchers are with their production. A look at their career numbers (Marshall listed first):
W-L ERA WHIP
16-22 4.62 1.41
22-33 4.24 1.33
More food for thought: Marshall, as more of a finesse pitcher, will post fewer strikeouts, but has also exhibited slightly better control. (Marshall listed first)
K/9 IP BB/9 IP
6.18 3.6
7.90 3.7
So: both have split time between starting and relieving, and both have been better as relievers. Their career win percentages are two percentage points apart, their ERAs and WHIPs are very similar, and Heilman is likely to strike out a few more guys, while walking slightly fewer.
Well, I'm exhausted. One thing to consider is that if Marshall starts, Neal Cotts is likely to be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Did you hear that? I said: Neal Cotts could be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Add in the fact that Cotts is actually better against righties than lefties, and this could be a serious factor in the final decision.
But wait: our wild card candidate. Jeff Samardzija came up last July and appeared in 26
games. He was exciting to watch, putting up a 2.28 ERA and notching 25 Ks in 27.2 IP. However, he also walked 15, and a similar struggle with control in a starter role would severely limit his ability to go deep into ballgames. Given that Zambrano and Harden tend to struggle in that arena, I'd prefer to see a 5th starter who can eat up some innings.To me, it seems silly to prematurely choose between Heilman and Marshall, since neither really stands out. But as I said above, this is a nice situation for Lou. Both have the ability to perform satisfactorily in the 5th starter role, and whoever ends up in the 'pen will provide a nice insurance policy when another starter gets injured or struggles. Lou has rightly declared that he'll use spring training as a forum to help answer this particular question.
I lean toward Marshall because he's had more experience as a starter, but would have no problem seeing Heilman take the ball every fifth day. Ultimately, this is just one of many reasons to be excited about spring training baseball, which starts in just three short days (vs. Dodgers, Wednesday, 2:00 CST). And by the way, Samardzija will start the first game.
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