Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Spring training position battles

Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez got into the swing of things today with their first spring homers, and the Cubs won 6-4 behind three perfect innings from Sean Marshall as well as scoreless appearances from Neal Cotts, Luis Vizcaino and Kevin Gregg.

There isn't a whole lot of news out of Mesa this year, partly because the Cubs roster is so set. You can pretty much bet your house on the following players breaking camp:

C: Soto

IF: Lee, Miles, Fontenot, Theriot, Ramirez

OF: Soriano, Johnson, Fukudome, Bradley

SP: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden

RP: Marshall (could start), Vizcaino, Gregg, Marmol, Heilman, Gaudin

That's 20 players, which means there are five spots up for grabs, and some of these are pretty darn set, but not set enough to fulfill the above criteria of being worthy of "betting your house." Apartment, maybe, but not house. Not in this economy.

Anyways, this situation is not exactly a recipe for spring training excitement, especially when you factor in that the Cubs are playing 750 spring training games this year. But here are the decisions Lou will have to make this spring:

  • 5th starter: Marshall vs. Samardzija vs. Heilman (side note: since Lou Piniella has to make this decision, could we call it a "manager a trois"?), with Samardzija a slight question mark to make the team, as it's possible the Cubs would prefer him in AAA preparing to fill in as a starter if needed, as opposed to coming out of the 'pen with the big club.
  • Reserve 1st baseman: Hoffpauir vs. Jake Fox, with Hoffpauir having a significant edge because he's a lefty and hit .342 in the majors last year.
  • Lefty reliever: Cotts vs. Mike Stanton, with Cotts having a huge leg up due to Stanton being 112 years old (actually 41) and not having pitched since '07, when he had a 5.93 ERA, and he has a 9.00 ERA thus far in spring. Translation: Mike Stanton is old and bad.
  • Reserve outfielder: Joey Gathright vs. Sam Fuld/So Taguchi, with Gathright having the edge. If MLB ever allows cars to be used on the field, Gathright will definitely be on the team: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cySfw8f0beg
  • Starting centerfielder: For now, the plan is to platoon Fukudome and Johnson, but perhaps Lou will use spring training to help determine who should start the majority of games. That being said, their performance during the regular season will likely mean more than spring, especially with Kosuke playing in the WBC this month.
  • Starting second baseman: Miles vs. Fontenot. When Piniella mentioned the lineup he's currently got in mind, he put Miles in the two hole. I would have thought Fontenot would start after his .305/.395 campaign last year. Lou has said he hopes to get both of them a bunch of at-bats during the season, but perhaps spring will vault one above the other before Opening Day arrives.
  • Reliever if Samardzija goes to AAA: Angel Guzman vs. Kevin Hart. Guzman pitched in six games last year (5.59 ERA), and has been a hot prospect for a while but has dealt with injuries. Hart appeared in 21 games last year (6.51 ERA).
  • Reserve catcher: Paul Bako (remember him?) vs. Koyie Hill. I don't even want to talk about this one. These guys both suck. Hill is 29 and has a .190 career average. Paul Bako is thirty-freakin'-six and weighs in at .231. Both have thrown out under 30% of base runners in their careers. What happened to Henry Blanco? Crap, I got carried away with anger and just talked about Bako and Hill for like seven sentences. If Soto gets injured for an extended period of time this year, are we allowed to just use the backstop as a catcher and skip that position in the batting order? If someone knows the rule on this, please let me know.

There's a good chance we'll see Bako behind the plate, Hoffpauir off the bench, Mike Stanton's arm fall off in the next three weeks (so Cotts in the bullpen), and Joey Gathright patrolling the outfield. That leaves us with the 5th starter battle and the relief spot associated with it. Piniella has said Marshall gets the first crack at starting, and if that's how it shakes out, my guess is the Cubs decide to have Samardzija throwing flames out of the 'pen (2.28 ERA last year), which shores up every spot on the 25-man roster.

These certainly aren't guarantees, but either way, there isn't a whole lot of drama in camp this year unless a trade is made, someone gets injured, or Milton Bradley punches Lou Piniella in the trachea at some point. Lack of drama is not a bad thing; the Cubs have a lot of talent and a lot of veteran players, and there just aren't that many decisions to be made.

I'll be watching the 5th starter competition (previous blog post here), Miles and Fontenot, and Hoffpauir/Fox. I will be trying my darndest to completely ignore Paul "I really wasn't all that good the first time I was on the Cubs" Bako and Koyie "I batted above .250 one time, but that's because I only had three at-bats" Hill.

It's great not to have 10 roster spots to fill and huge questions to deal with during spring training. Sit back and enjoy it!

UPDATE: Piniella said Tuesday that Fukudome will start against right-handers. I can't say I feel strongly about this one way or the other. Fukudome looked like a great slap-hitter and on-base guy in the first couple months of the season, and then completely fell off the table. With a whole year in the states under his belt and a year of major league experience behind him, he almost can't be worse in 2009. At the same time, Johnson was extremely productive in his role last season, so I don't want to see him get limited at-bats this year. Like I said above, I still think their performances during the regular season will dictate their playing time.

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