2010 Cubs preview: Second Base

In 2008, Baker and Fontenot competed as members of opposing teams. This year, they'll battle for playing time at second base for the Cubs.

Ah, second base. The Newman of the Cubs' cast. If Cubs players were beers, Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot would be Milwaukee's Best and Natural Ice. Can Lou bat them 10th in the lineup?

Okay, perhaps I'm being a bit harsh. But I'm not very optimistic about the Cubs' pansy platoon at second. One can hope that before too long, Starlin Castro will be at short and Ryan Theriot will be at second base.

After batting an impressive .305 in 119 games in 2008, Fontenot looked completely overwhelmed last season. He batted just .236 and had a pathetic .301 OBP. His power numbers were nearly identical each of the last two years: 9 HR both years and 40 and 43 RBI, respectively.

It's too early to say exactly how this platoon will operate (or if the platoon will even happen--perhaps one of the two players will vastly outperform the other in spring training and get the lion's share of the playing time), but one would think Baker will at least play against lefties. After all, Fontenot hit just .212 against southpaws last year. Baker, on the other hand, has hit .288 against lefties over the last three seasons (.254 against righties).

While Baker was a nice mid-season pick-up for the Cubs last year, batting .305 with a solid .362 OBP in 69 games, those numbers are outliers when compared against the rest of his career. In the only two seasons in which he played 85 games or more (2007 and 2008), he batted .222 and .268, respectively, and had a TOTAL of 16 HR and 60 RBI.

Here's another way to look at the potential production of the Cubs' pair of subpar second basemen: you have to scroll pretty far down ESPN's second base fantasy rankings before you find a Cub--Baker is 39th, Fontenot 41st.

My true prediction is that Starlin Castro does in fact find his way to the big leagues this summer, which will significantly reduce the playing time of both Baker and Fontenot. But assuming they play a full season in a platoon fashion, I'm going to go with:

Baker: 85 games, .265 avg, 7 HR, 33 RBI
Fontenot: 95 games, .251 avg, 5 HR, 35 RBI

But what do you think?

Let's Go, Bears

Four days and counting

The Bears are all set to play a real football game in just four days. And it's not just real cuz it counts in the standings; we're talking Bears/Packers on Sunday Night Football. The blue and orange against the green and gold kicking off the 2009-2010 version of the black and blue division. Cutler vs. Rodgers, Forte vs. Grant, Urlacher and the 4-3 vs. A.J. Hawk and the Packers' new 3-4.

Will the Bears still get off the bus running despite having a gunslinger behind center? Will the secondary get their doors blown off? Will Urlacher rebound from a poor 2008 season and be the dominant force he once was? Do the Bears have anyone who can get open and subsequently catch the ball?

I don't know the answers to all these questions, but I absolutely cannot wait to find out. Hank Williams, Jr., you don't even need to ask: I am indeed ready for some football.

***Don't forget that the football fun begins tomorrow night with a matchup of the Super Bowl Champion Steelers against the AFC South Champion Titans.

One of the best things about baseball ...

is that very time you turn on a game, you might just see something you've never seen before.

That was the case last night when the Cubs banged out eight consecutive hits to begin the game, tying the major league record. And the reason I had never seen it before is because the last time it happened was in 1973 ... when the Cubs did the same thing against the Pirates. That game was at Wrigley.

The first few hits were of the "hit 'em where they ain't" variety, but then the Cubs started hitting Zach Duke around pretty hard. The first out only came when Dempster gave them an out with a sacrifice bunt.

The need for speed

The Trib suggests that the Cubs may go after speedy Angels leadoff man Chone (pronounced Shawn) Figgins this offseason. The Cubs are last in the league with 45 stolen bases, while Figgins has 39 all by himself. He has averaged 49 stolen bases in his six-year career.

He has played six positions in his career (all but pitcher, catcher and first base), but is primarily a third baseman. He has played 244 career games in center field.

My question is: Where would he play? Barring a trade, the Cubs are committed to Soriano in left, Fukudome in center, and Bradley in right. Ramirez will obviously man the hot corner, leaving only second base as a legitimate option. While Figgins has started 86 games at second in his career, he's played there just twice in 2009 and I wonder if he would sign with the Cubs knowing that's where he'd spend the majority of his time.

Also starting at second base in 2010 ...

Jeff Baker? The Daily Herald's Inside Pitch blog did an interesting comparison between Jeff Baker in his time with the Cubs vs. Mark DeRosa in his time with the Cardinals. Since they have played 46 and 47 games, respectively, it makes for a pretty good comparison.

There has obviously been a great deal of hand-wringing over DeRosa's departure this past offseason, so it's interesting to see that Baker has hit .341 with 3 HR and 13 RBI while DeRosa has hit .244 with 8 HR and 19 RBI with the Cardinals. Baker's OBP is .399 compared to DeRosa's .313.

In fact, if you add the Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a statistic I partially understand and won't delve into too deeply at the moment) values of Fontenot and Baker, you end up with a higher value than that of DeRosa. Obviously DeRosa could have also filled in for an injured Aramis Ramirez and provided some other flexibility, but claiming that DeRosa would have saved this team is not accurate.

Baker, 28, will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and may be back for another stint with the Cubs next year, perhaps as a platoon with Fontenot.

Shark!

Jeff Samardzija was recalled yesterday, and will likely get a start before the season is through. Samardzija struggled in his final AAA start, going just 4.2 innings and allowing five runs.

Meet the mets, meet the Mets, step right up and BEAT the Mets

Saturday: Cubs 11, Mets 4


Overall, the news was good on Saturday. The Cubs came back from two early deficits and pounded the Mets 11-4, winning back-to-back games for the first time since two weeks ago against the Pirates. Let's take a look at some other good news from Saturday, along with some corresponding bad news:

Good news: Ryan Dempster has now won back-to-back starts, and every Cubs starter is now over .500.

Bad news: It's the first time all season that Dempster has won consecutive starts, and how are the Cubs just three games over .500 despite every starter having more wins than losses?

Good news: Jake Fox hit his first career grand slam and had five total RBI.

Bad news: He was only playing because Soriano was at the hospital getting an MRI. The exam revealed only inflammation, and Piniella said Soriano will most likely play today. Why does Piniella continue to choose MRIs over RBIs? While Fonzie is batting .185 with just one home run and seven RBI in August, Fox is batting .327 with three home runs and 13 RBI in 16 starts this month. And after Soriano's Little League-esque defensive performance on Friday, we can officially put the "But Fox can't play defense" reasoning to rest. Fox has made just two errors in left field all year, and no one can tell me that Fox is a defensive liability compared to Sori-oh-no.

Good news: Fontenot went 1-for-2 with two RBI.

Bad news: He was playing because Jeff Baker took a ball off his pinky in batting practice, and was taken to the hospital. But wait, more good news! He's okay, and could be back as early as today. The rare good news, bad news, good news. Didn't see that comin', did ya?

Good news: Koyie Hill went 1-for-2 with an RBI.

That's bad news for Geovany Soto, who is quickly fading into the backstop background, at least when it comes to the remainder of the 2009 season.

Good news: The Rockies--with Jason Marquis on the mound--lost to the Giants, allowing the Cubs to pull within 5.5 games in the Wild Card race.

Bad news: The Cardinals beat the hapless (except when they play the Cubs) Nationals, so the Cubs remain nine back in the Central.

Is it football season yet?

Thursday: Nationals 5, Cubs 4


The good: Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies

The bad: Nationals, Padres

The ugly: The Cubs have lost to them all.

No matter which opponent takes the field against the Cubs right now, they're likely to be shaking hands after the last out is made. The Cubs are now 9-15 in August, and they have more problems than you can shake a bat at. Problems like:

-Milton Bradley taking the train back to Crazy Town, claiming that he faces "hatred" at Wrigley Field and that he prays each game goes only nine innings (no matter who's winning, presumably) so that he can get home. Phil Rogers says the Cubs should let him stay home, though that would mean eating the $21 million remaining on Bradley's contract.

-And his isn't the only contract the Cubs would love to shed but probably can't. Alfonso Soriano continues to be unproductive (0-for-4 Thursday to drop his average to .238), and the Cubs appear to be stuck with his indolence, inconsistency and ineptitude for five more years. I believe Hendry can fight his way out of this, but if he gets axed and someone else is charged with putting this team back together, I feel for them.

-No second baseman. The Cubs will need to address the hole in the middle of their infield this offseason, with Fontenot looking very much like a backup this season and Jeff Baker and Aaron Miles (shiver) the only other options on the current roster.

-Soto's demise. Wha' happened? From .285, 23 and 86 last year to .218, 9 and 31 this year. Koyie Hill--Koyie Freakin' Hill--is getting more and more playing time, and it's hard to argue with that decision; Soto's batting .150 in August after a .222 July.

-What to do with Rich Harden? Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and Wells appear to be cemented in the 2010 rotation, but should the Cubs offer Harden a big deal? I think the Cubs should offer one or two years at a moderate salary, say $6-7 million/year. I'm not sure he'll get many offers bigger than that, given the economy and his long history of injuries.

-Randy Wells's Rookie of the Year chances are fading along with the Cubs. Now 9-7 with a 3.06 ERA, he has clearly ceded front-runner status to Spring Valley, Ill. native J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63). Even the Braves' Tommy Hanson (9-2, 3.12) might have a leg up on Wells at this point. Wells has obviously had a fantastic season (and he deserves a better record to show for it), but his chances of picking up some hardware to remember it by have gotten a lot slimmer.

In fairness, the Cubs did get robbed Thursday on a bad call at the plate when Derrek Lee was called out trying to score on a wild pitch even though pitcher Sean Burnett tagged him with an empty glove. That's the way this season has gone on the North Side, as a chance to gain a game on the Cardinals was wasted perhaps in part because of the missed call, but mostly because the Cubs fell into a 5-0 hole against the worst team in the National League.

It's incredible that the Cardinals have the biggest cushion of any divisional leader (nine games). Last time they made the playoffs, in 2006, they scratched and clawed their way in with a mediocre 83-win season. No need for them to buckle up, put their seats in an upright position or put their tray tables up this September, for they appear headed for a soft landing in what has turned out to be a terrible division.

Like I said, is it football season yet?

Tellin' it like it is

I'm sick of talking about potential.

I'm tired of doubles that turn into singles.

I'm sick of being the worst fielding team in the league, or damn close.

I'm tired of hits that come only when no one is on base.

I'm sick of a bullpen that can't hold a lead.

I'm tired of the wrong players being kept on the major league roster while better options rot in the minors.

I'm sick of runners at second with nobody out staying at second with one out.

I'm tired of runners at third with less than two outs still standing at third when the inning ends.

I'm sick of a team that turns any park not called "Wrigley Field" into a house of horrors.

I'm sick of a $40 million outfield trio that has been outperformed by Josh Willingham ($3 mil; .304, 18, 46), Shane Victorino ($3 mil; .310, 9, 52), and Hunter Pence ($439,000; .291, 16, 52).

I'm tired of watching Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker and Aaron Miles try to replace Mark DeRosa.

I'm sick of watching Geovany Soto flail away at the plate as if he's never heard the words "Rookie of the Year."

I'm tired of Carlos Zambrano's antics and inability to transform from a joker into an ace.

I'm even sick of fans throwing things at opposing players (by the way, did they eject the right person after that bleacher fan threw his beer on Shane Victorino?)

But mostly, I'm sick of rooting for a team that's so damned hard to root for. Remember how the Cubs just found ways to win in 2008? Clutch hitting, no excuses, a manager on his toes, consistency, fundamentals, hustle. How many of those descriptors fit the 2009 version of the Cubs?

Hey, don't get me wrong, I'm a Cubs fan. Always have been, always will be. But it sure takes a lot of the fun out of it when you watch them play and feel like they don't deserve to win.

Last year, casual baseball fans would say, "Wow, you gotta hand it to the Cubs. They're never out of a game, and they come to play."

This year, they say, "How are they only a few games out of first?" or "How did they not lose that game last night? They sure tried."

I don't have any answers. I honestly have no idea how a team can go from all out effort and 97 wins one year to lazy and overpaid and .500 the next, with much the same roster and the same man at the helm. What I do know is that the Cubs must have read a few too many preseason predictions this year, and thought they'd coast to the playoffs. This version of Cubs baseball is not what I signed up for when the season started.

I write all this knowing the season isn't over. There are exactly 50 games left, nearly a third of the season. The Cubs could sneak their way into the playoffs on the back of the Cardinals struggling. Or better yet, the Cubs could still turn it around. We've seen teams like the Astros, Marlins and Rockies put it together late and earn a postseason berth, and the Cubs could do it too.

And I'll certainly be rooting for that to happen.

But until and unless something changes, count me as one of the weary. I'm sick of the lack of leadership on this team, and I'm tired of the lack of effort. Play ball, dammit.

Zambrano scratched, Cubs overmatched

Friday: Rockies 6, Cubs 2


It was a day of bad news for the Cubs.

First, the Cardinals came back to beat the Pirates 6-4.

Then, Carlos Zambrano was scratched from his start when his back stiffened up while playing long toss before the game. How he made it five days--including a bullpen session--without any trouble, only to be scratched minutes before his start is beyond me. We'll see if Zambrano will be placed on the DL for the second time this season. Because his last start was August 1, he would already be halfway done with his DL stint if they make it retroactive.

Sean Marshall stepped in on (very) short notice, but showed why his career ERA is 2 1/2 points higher as a starter than as a reliever. He needed over 60 pitches to get through two innings, allowing three runs in his short outing. The Cubs may need to make a roster move this weekend, as four relievers were forced to throw all eight innings in the first of four games at hitter friendly Coors Field.

Let's get to the lineup changes: though the Cubs only tallied two runs on Friday, I like Bradley batting second. When the Cubs signed him, they thought they were getting an on-base guy with some pop in his bat. But so far, he's only lived up to the first part of that reputation. Despite a .252 average, he's got a .394 OBP, better than that of Adrian Gonzalez, Raul Ibanez and Ryan Braun (and nearly 50 points higher than Ryan Theriot's as well). For that reason, he's much better-suited for the two-hole, where he can get on base for Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano.

However, I'm not sure why Theriot was dropped all the way to eighth. He's hitting 60 points higher than Fontenot, and has the highest average on the team. It's a waste of his ability to have him right in front of the pitcher where he won't see many pitches to hit. I'd prefer to see Theriot seventh and Fontenot behind him.

The Cubs have started a lot of positive trends in the second half, but here's a negative one that they need to buck: they're now 2-5 against teams above .500.

Is Randy spelled ROY?

The Cubs could have the Rookie of the Year two years in a row for the first time since 1961-62 when Billy Williams and Ken Hubbs took the honors.

Randy Wells is making a serious case for himself. With 12 consecutive scoreless innings heading into Monday, Wells beat the Reds for the second time in less than two weeks, building up to 19 straight scoreless innings before allowing a solo home run to Alex Gonzalez in the 8th. He climbed to 8-4 with the win, and dropped his ERA to 2.73 along the way.

Among rookie pitchers, the Phillies' J.A. Happ is having a great season as well. Happ is 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA, but he might be on his way to the bullpen when the Phillies activate newly-signed Pedro Martinez.

Among rookie hitters, the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus has a .252, 11, 35 season going, and the Brewers' Casey McGehee is batting .319, but has a relatively modest nine home runs and 34 RBI.

If Wells keeps dealing, he will be a very viable candidate for the award. He's now just two innings shy of qualifying for the NL ERA leaderboard--if he did qualify, he'd be seventh in the league. If he gets up to 12 or 13 wins, the Cubs could have a catcher and a pitcher win Rookie of the Year in consecutive years.

Monday: Cubs 4, Reds 2

Great to see Fontenot put a charge into one. His last home run was also against the Reds, and the three-run shot matched his home run total (9) from last year.

Carlos Marmol eventually closed it out, but not without plenty of drama. With his 36-pitch outing, Piniella--who wanted to stay away from Gregg for a couple days--may have to go to Guzman or Marshall to close out tonight's game should a save situation arise.

Some want Marmol to be the closer after Gregg imploded in Florida over the weekend. I say there's not enough blood pressure medication in the world for that.

With the Cardinals taking a day off, the Cubs pulled into a tie for first. The Cardinals head to Citi Field for two with the Mets, followed by a three-game set in Pittsburgh.

Well, what did you expect?

We've reached the "halfway" point of the baseball season, and that means it's time to look back at the Cubs' performance thus far. We're going to take a look at the individual players, and in this analysis, like in life, it's all about expectations. For this reason, the following is brought to you by Dennis Green:

They are who we thought they were!!

Ryan Theriot: A solid top-of-the-order contact hitter. But 7 HR? Theriot must have BALCO's number on speed dial (kidding).

Derrek Lee: Whether Lee fits into this category actually depends on your levels of optimism and patience. A month into the season, I would have penciled him in for about 12 HR and a .265 BA. But it turns out, he is who we though he was at the beginning of last year.

Kosuke Fukudome: A hot starter with a penchant for dropping off the table when the temperature hits 75.

Koyie Hill: A backup catcher.

Ted Lilly: A great signing by Hendry. Top-notch left-handed innings-eater (enough hyphens for ya?).

Sean Marshall: Reliable, do-what-the-team-needs lefty. Has been better than expected out of the 'pen.

Kevin Gregg: Serviceable closer. Has 16 saves in 19 chances.

Aaron Heilman: Not-so-great reliever who walks too many people.

Carlos Zambrano: A bit frustrating at times, but gets the job done in the end.


They aren't who we thought they were! (the good version)

Angel Guzman: Not many Cubs have exceeded expectations, but Angel Guzman has been a godsend out of the 'pen. His 2.60 ERA has given Lou another reliable late-inning arm.

They aren't who we thought they were! (the bad version)

Milton Bradley: .321, 22, 77. Recognize those numbers? Those are Bradley's numbers last year with the Rangers. .243, 6, 21. Surely you recognize those. He needs to step it up, and he's not alone.

Aramis Ramirez: Well, we did think he was injury prone, but the fact that he missed two months means we have not had his big, clutch bat in the middle of the lineup like we expected.

Alfonso Soriano: .233 BA (lowest in any prior season: .268). 14 HR and 33 RBI (averages 36 and 93). But, he has stayed healthy! (Unless, of course, he's actually hurt and that's why he looks so terrible.)

Mike Fontenot: Won the 2B job after batting .305 last season. Batting .230 this year.

Geovany Soto: From Rookie of the Year to struggling, injury prone disappointment. Is the WBC at fault?

Aaron Miles: From my season preview: "He's scrappy and I like him." Never mind.

Ryan Dempster: Most of us didn't expect a repeat of his 17-6 performance last year, but he's got an ERA over a run higher and just five wins.

Jeff Samardzija: Made some waves last year, hoping to build on it this year. Not so much.

Rich Harden: Career ERA 3.47. 2009 ERA 5.47. But he's batting .304!

Carlos Marmol: I know, I know, his ERA is 3.64, but I can barely watch the guy any more with his 42 BB in 42 IP.


Who the hell are they?

Randy Wells: Nabbed by the Blue Jays as a Rule 5 last year, it sure is nice that we got him back. Two more quality starts than Harden.

Sam Fuld: Put his name on the radar screen last year, and has brought some energy to a listless left field this year.

Jake Fox: An up-and-coming prospect for several years, and now we know why. The ball just jumps off his bat.

Micah Hoffpauir: His average has slipped to .244, but his 8 HR and 25 RBI have provided some pop.


So that's how the Cubs stack up in relation to my expectations. It's obviously not good that there are so many players who have failed to meet expectations, but it could bode well for the second half. Teams that are in the playoff race due to guys playing out of their minds have to worry about them coming back to Earth. The Cubs just need to find a way to get guys like Soriano and Bradley back to this solar system in order to break away from the .500 mark and make a run in what to this point has been a very weak division.

The Cubs have the fourth best ERA in the league despite Zambrano and Harden spending time on the DL and the fact that they've used 14 relievers. If Marmol gets his act together, Guzman settles in again and guys like Samardzija and Stevens can contribute, the Cubs can add a solid bullpen to a strong rotation and continue to shut down their opponents' offense in the second half.

On the offensive side ... well, it was offensive. The Cubs' $214 million outfield of Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley has combined for 81 RBI; Ramirez checks in with just 17 due to the time he missed with an injury; and Ryan Freel, Joey Gathright and Aaron Miles were as useless as a catcher with no mitt. The lineup has seen more position changes than Ron Jeremy, and without Derrek Lee the Cubs would likely be out of contention by now.

But, with Reed Johnson and Aramis Ramirez back (and Milton Bradley says he's back too), combined with the emergence of guys like Jake Fox and Sam Fuld, perhaps Lou will be able to find a lineup that clicks as we head into the second half. There's nowhere to go but up for the offense, and even a slight improvement--even if it's just an improvement with runners in scoring position--should enable the starters to rack up the wins they deserve.

It was a first half of mediocrity, averageness, ordinariness ... fill in your own synonym here. The Cubs went 43-43 and outscored their opponents by two runs. It wasn't what we expected to see, to say the least, but with the Cubs needing to lose just one fewer game than the Cardinals in the second half, there's a lot to look forward to.

Ace of Cubs

You can make a pretty strong argument that since coming to the Cubs in 2007, Ted Lilly has been the Cubs' proverbial "ace." While it doesn't really matter who the "ace" is (since other than Opening Day and the first game after the All-Star break your best pitcher is not necessarily going to be matched up against the other team's best pitcher, anyways), Zambrano is constantly referred to as the Cubs ace. And while his track record and contract certainly justify the label to an extent, take a look at this:

Lilly:

2007: 15-8, 3.83 ERA, 207 IP
2008: 17-9, 4.09 ERA, 204 IP
2009: 7-4, 3.00 ERA, 78 IP

Totals: 39-21, 3.80 ERA, 489 IP

Zambrano:

2007: 18-13, 3.95 ERA, 216 IP
2008: 14-6, 3.91 ERA, 188 IP
2009: 4-2, 3.72 ERA, 55 IP

Totals: 36-21, 3.92 ERA, 459 IP

The numbers aren't that different, but Lilly has Zambrano beat in all three major categories: He's won more games, amassed a better ERA, and logged more innings than Zambrano since joining the Cubs. Jim Hendry deserves huge props for this signing, especially since he completed it from a hospital bed.

Lilly's only drawback? He apparently is not aware of the baseball phenomenon known as "the third base coach." Did you see him turn to look at the ball five times on his triple to right center last night? The Cubs are paying someone to help you with that, Ted!

After this series, the Cubs will have played the Astros 10 times in their first 57 games, yet another example of what a terrible schedule MLB is operating on this season. The Cubs are making their third trip to Minute Maid Park already, and if only they could face Brian Moehler every time there. In just the third game of the season, the Cubs knocked him out in the second inning of an 11-6 victory. Tuesday, Moehler improved upon that start by going three whole innings and allowing just five runs! His season ERA stands at 6.95.

A portion of last night's offense came from Mike Fontenot, which was great to see. Fontenot was 4-for-5 with his first home run since May 3. After batting just .216 in May, Fontenot appears to be getting his groove back: he's batting .385 in June.


Finally, Carrie Muskat reports that Jake Fox (who had a pinch-hit double last night and is now 5-for-6 as a pinch-hitter) will be sent back to Triple-A Iowa in order to activate Aaron Miles from the DL. All I have to say is that Miles better produce more than his current .204/.250/.265 line, because though Fox can't play much defense, he sure can rake. No doubt Fox will be back in the not-too-distant future.

Central intelligence

-The Brewers and Cardinals both lost. Lou Piniella will probably be sending a "Thank You" card along to Denver, as the Rockies have now defeated the Cardinals and Brewers a combined five consecutive games. In Florida, Chris Carpenter couldn't hold a 3-0 lead, and a ninth-inning homer off Jason Motte sealed their fate. The Reds beat the Nationals 3-2, so there's a three-way tie for second place, with the Brewers leading the pack by 2.5 games. Technically, the Cubs' winning percentage is just slightly better than that of the Reds and Cardinals, so take that, suckers!

Samardzija watch

Jeff has made two starts since the last udpate, one good and one bad. One June 4, he allowed four runs on nine hits in five innings of work. He followed that up, though, with a strong performance on Tuesday--6 IP, 5 H, o ER, o BB, 3 K. His Triple-A ERA sits at 4.05, an he has walked just 13 batters in 46.2 IP.

Cubs chop Braves in 11, end road woes

Let's take a look at some more ex-Cubs, NL West style:

Matt Murton, Rockies

Murton, who topped my "favorite Cubs" list during his tenure in Chicago, was traded to the A's last July in the Rich Harden deal. He played nine games for the A's and was just 3-for-30. He was then traded to Colorado this February, and has appeared in 20 games. He's batting .275 with a home run and four RBI, and because I like him so much, I'm even going to link to the video of him jacking one out of Coors Field.

Chad Gaudin, Padres

Gaudin and his beard were released in April and signed by San Diego later that month. Chad has made seven starts for the Padres, and is 2-3 with a 4.77 ERA. Oddly, six of his seven starts have been on the road this year, and his one start at Petco was a strong six-inning outing against the Giants.

Henry Blanco, Padres

Blanco is another guy that the Padres signed off the Cubs' scrapheap. Some, including myself, were surprised the Cubs didn't try to retain him, as he had a career year with a .292 average while throwing out 45% of potential base stealers. He's played in 21 games as a backup this year, and is struggling with a .194 average. On the bright side, three of his 12 hits have left the yard.

Bob Howry, Giants


Signed in December as a free agent, Howry has made the second-most appearances out of the 'pen for San Fran. His ERA is up there, though, at 5.12.




Wednesday: Cubs 3, Braves 2, 11 inn.

The Cubs bullpen showed some moxie, and the result was the team's first road win since May 10. Ted Lilly had another quality start (that's seven out of 10 for him), and Marmol, Guzman and Gregg combined for four innings with just one hit allowed and no walks. But the best moment of the game was when Micah Hoffpauir had a pinch-hit RBI single to put the Cubs ahead in the 11th--and the hit came off a lefty. Hoffpauir is batting just .154 on the season against southpaws.

The worst thing from Wednesday's game: Fontenot and Theriot combined to have three at-bats in the late innings with the goal of bunting a runner to second, and they failed all three times. When even your tiny players can't bunt, it's tough to play small ball.

After surviving Derek Lowe, the Cubs will face another tough pitcher Thursday in Jair Jurrjens. The 23-year-old is 5-2 with a 2.59 ERA, and has never faced the Cubs.

Why?

This movie's going to be terrible.

The streak is over: Cubs Marshall a wet win

Tuesday: Cubs 6, Pirates 1 (6 inn.)

The Cubs got an assist from Mother Nature to end their eight-game losing streak, and we'll take it. The offense scored in four of the five innings they came to the plate, and Sean Marshall was on cruise control when the rain washed the rest of the game away in the top of the sixth. It goes in the books as a complete game, and it's just the first of the season for the Cubs (they only had two all of last year).

I hate to dwell, but the two players who could have pinch-hit instead of Carlos Zambrano on Monday were Kosuke Fukudome and Mike Fontenot; Fukudome blasted a homer in his first at-bat, and Fontenot doubled to right in his. Fukudome walked as well and scored two runs, while Fontenot went 2-for-3 and is now 5-for-9 in his last three games.

Fontenot's recent string of success is nothing, though, compared to fellow shorty (he's 5'10) Freddy Sanchez. After a 6-for-6 game Monday, Sanchez went 2-for-3 Tuesday, making him 8-for-9 at the plate over the last two days.

Zambrano takes the hill today in his second start since coming off the DL, while Zach Duke (5-4, 2.77) gets the nod for the Pirates. Duke won 10 games in 2006, but struggled in '07 and '08; he's off to the best start of his career this year. Hopefully Derrek Lee will be healthy and ready to go today, because though Hoffpauir has played well of late, he's batting just .182 against lefties this season.

Cubs notes

-With the Cardinals' win over the Brewers, the Cubs are back to four games out of first.

-Marshall's win means that every Cubs starter now has at least three wins on the season.

-After their horrendous six-game offensive malaise, the Cubs have now racked up 14 runs on 18 hits and 11 walks in their last 13 innings.

MLB note

-Zack Greinke pitched a complete game six-hitter against the Tigers, allowing just one run ... and his ERA went up! It was Greinke's fifth complete game of the year, and he's now 8-1 with a 0.84 ERA.

Offense on display

What is every Major League team's goal? To win series. And that's just what the Cubs did Wednesday, taking two of three against Houston to win their first season-opening series since 2003. The Cubs tried to put it away early, scoring four runs in each of the first two innings, but Houston stayed alive by belting five home runs in the game. The Cubs ultimately held off the charge, winning 11-6.

Had Lilly pitched Monday or Tuesday when the offense was more dormant, we'd probably be mad at him right now and talking about how the WBC affected his preparation (which it probably did), as he went just five innings and allowed five runs, but he got the win because he was staked to such a large lead. Why, though, did Piniella take him down after just 73 pitches? Is it indeed because the WBC messed with his prep? I know Lilly didn't have his good stuff, but I'd rather see him back out for the sixth.

One more complaint--why were both Gregg AND Guzman warming up in the top of the ninth? Gregg pitched in the first two games, and why get him stretched out again when Guzman was going to pitch in the bottom of the ninth anyways? Sure, if Guzman gets into trouble, you get Gregg up, but why you would warm him up prematurely is beyond me.

Cubs notes

• The best thing about Wednesday's offensive explosion? That's easy--Kosuke Fukudome drank some sort of magical hitting potion prior to the game and went 4-5 with a home run and four runs scored. He also--gasp--walked! Fukudome's last four-hit game was May 1 of last year. It's obviously just one game, but we haven't seen that type of pop off Fukudome's bat since, well, May 1 of last year. 'Dome also stole a base as part of a double steal.
• If you're a starting pitcher, is there anything better than coming up to bat before you've thrown a pitch? Yeah--how about batting again in the second inning? That's what Ted Lilly did Wednesday, as the Cubs batted around in each of the first two frames.
  
• David Patton began his Major League career by promptly serving up a home run to Hunter Pence. He settled down, though, getting through two innings with no more baserunners while striking out two.
• How freakin' good is the Cajun Connection? One reason I hate the Cardinals is because of all the little scrappy bastards they always seem to have who refuse to make an out despite apparently being members of the Lollipop Guild as a second job (think: David Eckstein, Fernando Vina), but now we have our own pint-sized studs in Fontenot (5' 8) and Theriot (5' 11). In the first series, they both batted over .385 and accounted for a combined four runs and six RBI.
• I have to give Milton Bradley props. Yes, he's still hitless, but his OBP is .357 and he's second in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance. He's not in a groove right now, and yet he's still exhibiting patience at the plate and getting on base at a pretty good clip.
  

MLB notes

• Who says chivalry is dead? The Braves walked in four runs in one inning against the Phillies Wednesday, kindly enabling them to come back from a 10-3 deficit. This could end up being one of the bigger comebacks all year.
• How often do the Padres wear those awful camouflage uniforms? I thought it was just for every Sunday home game (which is still way too often), but they were also wearing them Wednesday night, which is surely the reason they lost 5-2 to the Dodgers. Man, are those ever hideous.

Fifth time's a charm

Zambrano finally got his first Opening Day victory on his fifth attempt, pitching six innings of one-run ball before handing it over to the Cubs 'pen. Kevin Gregg allowed a run in the ninth, but the Cubs took the opener 4-2 over the Astros.

The season started off with a bang when Soriano deposited the second pitch he saw over the left field fence for the leadoffiest of leadoff home runs. Soriano was just the fourth Cub to leadoff the season with a homer, and the first since Tuffy Rhodes did so in 1994. My mom and I were at that game when I was 12, and Tuffy Rhodes didn't just hit a leadoff home run--he hit two more after that. Rhodes, though, tallied just 13 total home runs as a major leaguer, but has had a successful career in Japan, belting 442 dingers there.

Perhaps the only low moment for the Cubs was when Milton Bradley pulled an Adam Dunn, tripping over himself as he let a soft liner bounce off his glove. In fairness, he was not charged with an error on the play, but in fairness, it looked like an error to me.

Notes

• Fukudome, Lee and Bradley were a combined 0-11

• The Cubs turned two double plays, one on an outfield assist by Milton Bradley

• Fontenot had three of the Cubs' nine hits

Cards bullpen struggles out of the gate
It's only one game, but Cardinals fans can't feel good about the fact that their supposed weakness--the bullpen--cost them a win in their opener against the Pirates. They actually managed to blow two saves in their opener, putting them on a solid pace to exceed last year's league-leading 31 blown saves. In fact, the Cardinals had twice as many blown saves Monday as all of the other Major League teams combined.

Sizing up the lineup

Before the season starts up (in eight days!!), I wanted to take a look at the Cubs lineup. The lineup has been controversial ever since the Cubs acquired Soriano, and with a few additions and subtractions this year, there's even more room for debate regarding the Cubs batting order. Here's what it will probably look like come April 6:

1. Alfonso Soriano, LF
2. Kosuke Fukudome, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Milton Bradley, RF
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
6. Mike Fontenot, 2B
7. Geovany Soto, C
8. Ryan Theriot, SS
9. Pitcher

So Soriano will still be belting leadoff solo home runs; Fukudome will either set the table nicely with his ability to get on base or create a black hole in the two spot with his complete inability to get on base; Lee, whose slugging percentage was better than that of only Fukudome and Theriot last year, will still bat third; Bradley provides the lefty 'tween the two sluggers; and Theriot would bring up the rear.

Baseball Musings, a great Web site, has a lineup analysis tool that uses players' on-base percentages and slugging percentages to determine the best and worst possible lineups. Plugging in last year's numbers for these players, Baseball Musings projects the following:

• Best lineup: 5.42 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game

The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008.

Their best lineup, interestingly, looks like this:

1. Bradley
2. Fontenot
3. Fukudome
4. Ramirez
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Pitcher
9. Theriot

Few things: 1) this is a very untraditional lineup that we would never see, but it's interesting to look at, 2) notice the little LaRussa-ism in there, with Theriot batting ninth behind the pitcher, and 3) all three lefties are at the top, eliminating all the lineup balance Piniella is seeking for this year's team.

Here's how I would fill out the lineup card:

1. Theriot
2. Fontenot
3. Ramirez
4. Bradley
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Johnson/Fukudome
9. Pitcher

This lineup generally places the strong OBP at the top, whereas Piniella's backloads them. Baseball Musings points out that the Cubs just may score more runs in the second inning this year than the first, with on-base guys like Bradley, Ramirez and Fontenot coming up in the second.

This lineup also provides nearly the same balance as Piniella's, with lefties batting 2, 4 and 8. I've placed the Cajun Connection and their +.380 OBPs at the top. While I hope I'm wrong, Lee seems to be to be on the decline, and I would take his subpar slugging percentage and move it down. Ramirez is the purest run producer on the team, so I move him into the all-important three hole, with lefty Bradley behind him. Soriano's .532 slugging percentage looks nice in the six spot, followed by the capable Soto and presumably the weakest (though hopefully not weak) part of the lineup, the Reed Johnson/Fukudome platoon.

Under the assumption Piniella doesn't read my blog and alter his lineup plans, the Cubs offense should still be in good shape. This is virtually the same lineup that led the NL in runs scored (855), OBP (.354), SLG (.443), and finished second in batting average (.278) in 2008. Can you BELIEVE the Cubs--the Chicago freakin' Cubs--led the NL in on-base percentage? If the Cubs maintain a focus on taking bad pitches, drawing walks, and getting on base however they can, this offense will be another force to be reckoned with. They've essentially replaced Fukudome with Bradley and Johnson/Edmonds with Johnson/Fukudome. Lee has room to improve over last year, Fukudome was useless for three months, Soriano missed over 50 games, and Soto was just a rookie. On the other hand, can Theriot and Fontenot keep it up? Will Bradley trot out to right field enough to justify his contract?

One note on Fukudome: I can understand giving him a chance to play everyday--he's making $12 mil, and he demonstrated potential last April and May. The Cubs' high OBP was even referred to as the Fukudome Factor until Fukudome himself was no longer a factor. But I am worried about him. He looked lost during the WBC, tallying no extra base hits and getting benched for the championship game. Reed Johnson plays the game hard and finds ways to contribute. So once again, I understand giving Fukudome a shot, but I personally would have him on a short leash.

So, what do you think about the lineup? Share your thoughts and suggestions in the comments.

Here's to setting another franchise record for walks and breaking the 900 run mark!

Cubs news and notes

Fifth starter battle all but over?
Sean Marshall is making a great case for himself as the fifth starter. He pitched into the fifth inning against the Mariners Friday, allowing three hits and one unearned run, lowering his ERA to .68. We all know this doesn't mean he'll lead the NL in ERA this season, but combine his spring success with the fact that Piniella has hinted at Marshall winning the starting job already, and Sean's gotta be feeling pretty good about his chances right about now. Aaron Heilman also threw just two innings in his start Saturday, another good sign if you're Sean Marshall.

From fifth starter to first
Piniella announced that Carlos Zambrano will make his fifth consecutive Opening Day start for the Cubs. This one's a catch-22: Big Z is an emotional guy, and he could have reacted adversely had he lost his #1 starter status; but on the other hand, Z's emotion often gets the best of him in these season-opening games, as he's 0-1 with a 5.57 ERA in such starts. Good news, though: Zambrano threw 6.2 scoreless innings on Opening Day against the Brewers last year, walking just one and striking out five.

Side note, courtesy of the Sun-Times: Zambrano will become just the third Cubs pitcher to make five consecutive Opening Day starts, joining Fergie Jenkins and Rick Sutcliffe.

Beyond Opening Day
Dempster will follow Zambrano in the rotation, followed by Lilly and Harden. Since the Cubs will skip the fifth starter the first time through, Lilly is slated to start the Cubs' home opener April 13 against Colorado.

Murphy's Law at work for Marmol
Carlos Marmol went back and forth about whether to play for the Dominican Republic in the WBC, and while he surely would have felt some regrets had he decided not to, he can't feel all that great about his performance in the event. Marmol blew a save as the DR was stunned by the Netherlands, getting bounced in the first round. Overall, Marmol allowed two runs (one earned), two hits, a walk and a hit batter in 1 2/3 innings. Marmol says he's still glad he went, and hopefully any negative emotions from the experience won't linger as he fights for the closer spot this spring. I would expect him to make an appearance with the Cubs very soon.

Kosuke to bat second
The 2008 pre-All Star Game Fukudome would fit great in the second spot in the order. The post-All Star Game Fukudome would be a black hole between Soriano and Lee. As I said earlier, it's very difficult to know what Fukudome is going to do this season. If he can provide a strong on-base percentage as he did early on last season, I absolutely love him in the two spot. The good news is, if he struggles, Piniella can turn to Reed Johnson, a reliable backup whom the Cubs can afford to start given the firepower in their lineup.

Fontenot wins 2B job
Yes! I have nothing against Aaron Miles--in fact, I think he'll be a nice little scrappy addition to the team--but Fontenot deserves to play. Piniella said Fontenot will be the everyday second baseman, at least against righties. Miles will no doubt fill in at times and will probably get some starts against lefties, as he is a switch-hitter. Expect Fontenot to bat sixth, providing the lefty-righty-lefty-righty situation that Piniella dreams about. I'll do a more in-depth post about the Cubs lineup at a later time.

Meaningless spring stats
Players having a strong spring thus far:
Ryan Theriot batting .444
Mike Fontenot batting .371
Micah Hoffpauir batting .302 with 2 HR and team-leading 9 RBI
Sean Marshall 13.1 IP, 9 H, .68 ERA
Aaron Heilman 8 IP, 4 H, 1.13 ERA

Players struggling to this point:
Derrek Lee batting .182 with one RBI
Alfonso Soriano batting .148
Jeff Samardzija 8 IP, 10 H, 6.75 ERA
Chad Gaudin 8.2 IP, 13 H, 10.38 ERA

Cubs quote of the day

From Paul Sullivan of the Tribune:

"Mike Fontenot and his girlfriend bought Ryan Theriot's kids a trampoline for Christmas, much to the Theriots' chagrin.

'It's only like a foot off the ground,' Fontenot said. 'They'll only break their arms, not their necks, so he's happy about it. He told me when I have kids, he's going to get them steak knives.'"

Movin' on Down?

Word out of Mesa is that Piniella is finally considering moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot (click post title for Tribune blog post). Many Cubs fans have banged their heads against the wall for two years about this, as Soriano seems suited for the middle of the lineup rather than the top. Sori has averaged 36 home runs over the last four years, and while he had 71 combined stolen bases in '05 and '06, he's had just 19 each of the last two seasons.

On-base percentage is often cited (correctly, if you ask me) as the most important statistic for a leadoff man, and Soriano's career OBP is .329. Last season, his OBP as a leadoff man placed him 22nd among 32 players with at least 200 plate appearances.

So: Soriano can mash the hell out of the ball, doesn't run much, and is not prone to getting on base. Analysis: bad leadoff man.

The one thing people mention in defense of him batting leadoff is his ability to "spark the offense" when he starts the game with a dinger. I agree that it's sweet to be up 1-0 about 30 seconds into the game, but you could say the same about Ryan Braun, A-Rod, or any other home run hitter. If he hit lower in the order, the Cubs might be up 3-0 in the first, instead of just 1-0.

But here's the rub: Soriano doesn't seem to produce when hitting down in the order. Over the last three years, he boasts a .297 average in the leadoff spot, while hitting an atrocious .144 in all other spots, including a .243 average in the 5-hole, where he could possibly bat in a reshaped Cubs lineup (Fontenot, Theriot, Lee, Bradley, Soriano, Ramirez, Soto, Johnson). One could certainly argue that this is partly due to attitude, as he has typically cried foul when not batting leadoff. Can you imagine if he got over his leadoff obsession and had one of his patented hot streaks in the 5- or 6-hole instead of the leadoff spot? Last year, Soriano was 29th in the majors in home runs, but just 81st in RBI! He had fewer runs batted in than Hunter Pence! Two years ago, the disparity was even more dramatic, as he was 11th in the majors in homers, but just 102nd in RBI, behind legendary run producers like Ray Durham and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

The two most natural leadoff options would probably be Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot. Fontenot's career OBP is .369, and was a superb .395 last year. Theriot's career mark is .362, and he's averaged 21 stolen bases over the last three seasons.

Theriot played very well last season, and is a great slap hitter with an amazing ability to hit the ball to the right side. This is a great skill for a 2-hitter, as he could often produce a first-and-third situation if Fontenot gets on ahead of him. However, you'd like to have a base-stealing threat, and Fontenot is far from it (seven career stolen bases).

Theriot is a bit of a threat to run, and Fontenot, as a lefty, has a natural ability to hit the ball to the right side. I wouldn't mind seeing:

Theriot
Fontenot
Ramirez
Bradley
Lee
Soriano
Soto
Johnson/Fukudome

I hope Lou at least experiments this spring with some different options. Sure, the Cubs won 97 games last year with Sori leading off, but a) that doesn't mean there's no room for improvement, and b) in the playoffs, when every at-bat counts and pitchers tend to make fewer mistakes, Soriano goes from a spark plug to a dead battery.

I have no idea why Piniella has babied Soriano throughout his tenure in Chicago, and his quotes from today don't sound all that geniune either (“So, we’ll see. To me, he’s still my leadoff hitter. I love him in the leadoff spot. I like him in the leadoff spot. But, look, we can see how it looks. We’ve got plenty of time in the spring to see where things shake out.”). So this is all premature and probably pointless, but I'm glad Soriano finally seems amenable to a change, and it'd be nice to see Lou play around with the lineup a bit during spring training.