"Start" of Spring Training

Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden--that's all set. But who will replace the supreme averageness of Jason Marquis as the Cubs' 5th starter? Piniella is in a good position, with two solid options and a potential wild card in 24-year-old Jeff Samardzija. Though of the three, only Marshall has appeared as a starter more often than a reliever in his career.

Heilman, 30, had been with the Mets his whole career, but was traded to the Mariners in December and then quickly flipped to the Cubs in January. Heilman was traded after struggling as a reliever in '08, going 3-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (walks + hits/inning pitched). However, he posted a 3.27 total ERA in the three seasons prior. Those numbers came mostly out of the 'pen, as he started just seven games in that time frame, all in '05. Heilman has not started since that year.

Marshall is a 26-year-old lefty who has provided versatility for the Cubs since coming up from the Minors in 2006. He has appeared in 79 games with the Cubs, 50 as a starter. Last year was arguably his best, as he posted: 3-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Marshall has generally fared better out of the 'pen (3.03 vs. 4.80 ERA).

It's actually somewhat ridiculous how similar these two pitchers are with their production. A look at their career numbers (Marshall listed first):

W-L ERA WHIP
16-22 4.62 1.41
22-33 4.24 1.33

More food for thought: Marshall, as more of a finesse pitcher, will post fewer strikeouts, but has also exhibited slightly better control. (Marshall listed first)

K/9 IP BB/9 IP
6.18 3.6
7.90 3.7

So: both have split time between starting and relieving, and both have been better as relievers. Their career win percentages are two percentage points apart, their ERAs and WHIPs are very similar, and Heilman is likely to strike out a few more guys, while walking slightly fewer.

Well, I'm exhausted. One thing to consider is that if Marshall starts, Neal Cotts is likely to be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Did you hear that? I said: Neal Cotts could be the only lefty out of the bullpen. Add in the fact that Cotts is actually better against righties than lefties, and this could be a serious factor in the final decision.

But wait: our wild card candidate. Jeff Samardzija came up last July and appeared in 26 games. He was exciting to watch, putting up a 2.28 ERA and notching 25 Ks in 27.2 IP. However, he also walked 15, and a similar struggle with control in a starter role would severely limit his ability to go deep into ballgames. Given that Zambrano and Harden tend to struggle in that arena, I'd prefer to see a 5th starter who can eat up some innings.

To me, it seems silly to prematurely choose between Heilman and Marshall, since neither really stands out. But as I said above, this is a nice situation for Lou. Both have the ability to perform satisfactorily in the 5th starter role, and whoever ends up in the 'pen will provide a nice insurance policy when another starter gets injured or struggles. Lou has rightly declared that he'll use spring training as a forum to help answer this particular question.

I lean toward Marshall because he's had more experience as a starter, but would have no problem seeing Heilman take the ball every fifth day. Ultimately, this is just one of many reasons to be excited about spring training baseball, which starts in just three short days (vs. Dodgers, Wednesday, 2:00 CST). And by the way, Samardzija will start the first game.