Can the Bears steel a win?

Zack Bowman played at cornerback for nine snaps against the Packers, but he'll have a lot more chances this Sunday against the Steelers.

Bowman will take over the starting job from Nathan Vasher this weekend. While Vasher didn't do terribly in Green Bay (Rodgers was 17/28 for 184 yards), he let Greg Jennings get way, way behind him on what turned out to be the game-winning 50-yard touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. Bowman will need to bring his A game against Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.

The Bears will be forced to make another change as well, as Pisa Tinoisamoa says there's no way he can play this weekend. Nick Roach, who played the second half against the Packers due to Tinoisamoa's injury, will play at strong-side linebacker.

Bears vs. Steelers Preview

So other than trying to keep the remaining players healthy and on the field, what do the Bears need to do in order to keep from falling to 0-2?

The Steelers will be well rested, having played the NFL's opening game last Thursday at home against the Titans. They eked out a 13-10 win in overtime, and were unable to put the game away in regulation partly because they never got their running game going. Willie Parker averaged a paltry 1.5 yards per carry, and the longest rush by any Steeler was eight yards.

Roethlisberger, normally a game manager more than a gunslinger, carried the load with 43 pass attempts. He completed 33 of them and piled up 363 yards, adding a touchdown and two picks. The aforementioned Holmes and Ward both went over 100 yards receiving.

Here's some good news for Bears fans: though Pittsburgh allowed just 10 points, the Titans had 320 yards of total offense. And on top of that, safety Troy Polamalu sprained his MCL and will not be on the field this Sunday. There's no question in my mind that this is a bigger loss for Pittsburgh than Brian Urlacher is for the Bears.

Keys to the Game

Run the ball to set up play action. The Bears' pass/run ratio of 54/46 in the game against the Packers wasn't all that bad. But with the line unable to open up holes, the Packers were free to sit back in coverage, and cover they did: Cutler was just 17/36. The Bears need to have success in the running game, and the earlier the better. This will allow Cutler to settle in in his first home game, and will open up the possibility of the play action pass.

Tell Big Ben what time it is. And by that terrible, extreme stretch of a pun, I mean that when defenders get the chance to hit Ben Roethlisberger, they need to clock him (sorry, I can't help myself). Big Ben's biggest strength is his ability to shed defenders and keep the play alive. If the Bears get their hands on him, they need to bring him down.

Don't throw four interceptions. I know, brilliant analysis, right? But seriously, Cutler needs to remain at least slightly calmer than a gremlin that's just been exposed to bright light. In trouble? Throw the ball away if need be. Throw it at a guy's feet where at least the defender can't catch it. Just don't throw it to a guy wearing black and gold.

Special teams. One would think Pittsburgh's low-scoring, 13-10 victory in Week 1 was no fluke. Another defensive battle is certainly not out of the question, if not likely. That means Devin Hester's 7.5 yard punt return average from Week 1 won't cut it, and hopefully Brad Maynard can keep up his 49.5 yard punting average.

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I'm not great at knowing where NFL players went to college, so for my benefit but also hopefully for yours, I present to you:

Where'd he come from? (a look at the alma maters of some of the notable players whom the Bears are about to face, and not so notable players who attended a college of note)

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (OH)
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
LB LaMarr Woodley, Michigan
RB Willie Parker, North Carolina
WR Santonio Holmes, Ohio State
WR Hines Ward, Georgia
S Troy Polamalu, USC

Take your pick

Packers 21, Bears 15


I expected Jay Cutler to lose a game or two for the Bears this year with his gun-slinging mentality and penchant for interceptions (after all, he did throw 18 of them last year). But I didn't expect one of those games to be the first one, and I didn't expect him to be so bad that he'd essentially guarantee a loss. I'm not even ready for Halloween, but Cutler's already celebrating Christmas with gifts to division rivals.

There's no doubt that others deserve blame too. Offensive line? Hello? You there? Cutler made bad decisions when he was flushed out of the pocket, but he was put in those situations time after time because of subpar protection.

And the receivers. They showed big play ability with two bombs down the right sideline, one by Knox and one by Hester, but they also showed their inexperience by breaking off routes when they needed to finish them and finishing them when Cutler thought they were going to break them off. Cutler and the receivers weren't just on different pages--they were in different literary movements.

But still. Exactly what species of prehistoric butterflies were those in your stomach, Jay?

The amazing thing is that the Bears were in it. They were winning with under two minutes to go! But then Nathan Vasher got blowed up on a third-and-1; if the secondary had a question mark after it heading into the game, it now has two. And then Cutler and Knox cooked up another pick, and that was that.

Kyle Orton, by the way, never threw four interceptions last year. Cutler choked in his Bears debut even worse than Orton's beard must have choked him all of last year. (Did you happen to catch the ridiculous conclusion to Orton's Broncos debut yesterday? And yes, that's announcing deity Gus Johnson on the call.)

The running game wasn't much help, either. Fifty-five yards on 25 carries for Forte; just over two yards per carry. That said, though, it seems like Ron Turner got pass happy even though so few of Cutler's passes ended happily.

The Bears did hold their own on defense, especially when you consider that Urlacher and Tinoisamoa missed most of the second half. If the defensive line had a question mark after it heading into the game, it's now an exclamation point. Someone on the line needs to have a significantly better year than they did last year, and it looks like it will be the guy who's in a contract year: Adewale Ogunleye had two sacks and helped the Bears tally four total sacks, including one that resulted in a safety.

The game went pretty much the opposite of what everyone expected. About the only thing more relentless than the surprises were the injuries. Urlacher. Tinoisamoa. Desmond Clark. Offensive lineman Frank Omiyale. Backup corner Trumaine McBride.

And the news on Urlacher isn't good: he's out for the season. Ouch. Most people, including myself, believed that Urlacher had to have a big year for the Bears to return to top form. I'm way too excited about the Bears season to give up on it already, but this one hurts. A lot.

Perhaps a trip home will help settle Cutler's nerves. I sure hope so, because when we looks to redeem himself this Sunday, he'll be looking across the line at the Super Bowl Champion Steelers' "D."

Shot of the Day

A predilection for prediction

While Sports Illustrated picked the Bears to win the NFC North and go to the Super Bowl, ESPN has no such love for da Bears. Just one of their 16 experts picked them to win the division, and just two others picked them to grab a Wild Card spot.

Minnesota and Green Bay share ESPN's adoration pretty equally, and while I don't fault them too much for respecting their respective rosters, the Bears' near-complete absence from their predictions seems a bit odd.

SI seems too hot on the Bears, ESPN too cold. No doubt my prediction will be juuuuust right.

The Bears finished 9-7 last year, and choked in the season's final game against the Texans with a playoff spot on the line. The Vikes won the division with a 10-6 record while the Packers went 6-10 and pulled up the rear in what essentially turned out to be a three-team division and will be once again in 2009.

Minnesota

The Vikings return the core of last year's 6th ranked defense, including the "Williams Wall" of Pat and Kevin Williams, who still have not served their respective four-game suspensions. In fact, it looks unlikely that the legal proceedings will be completed during the 2009 season.

Ranked 25th in passing last year, the Vikings have gotten stronger at the QB position with the addition of some guy named Brett Favre. Like the Bears, they lack a true #1 wide receiver with Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade running routes for the 40-year-old vermin.

They do, however, have the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson. But therein lies the problem: Will Favre be able to handle playing second fiddle to the running back all season? Can the primo primadonna of sports take the back seat? Not to mention there have already been stories about Favre not fitting in in the locker room. Things could get interesting when Favre--the QB with the most interceptions of all time--puts the ball in the hands of the defense a few too many times down the stretch. You'll recall that his Jets went 1-4 in their final five games last year, with Favre throwing nine interceptions during that stretch.

Prediction: 9-7

Green Bay

The Packers had the 8th best offense in the league last year, but were done in partly by their 20th ranked defense and mostly by suffering seven losses by four points or less. They made a bold move by moving to the 3-4 defense this season, and return most of the key players on both sides of the ball.

They figure to be able to light up the scoreboard with aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Ryan Grant, et al. It remains to be seen whether their new defensive scheme will be an overdue adjustment or a misguided misuse of personnel. Aaron Kampman, formerly a defensive lineman, will now be the fourth linebacker. Force him to cover a speedy tight end (cough Greg Olsen cough) and you might be able to exploit their D.

Prediction: 10-6

Chicago

And now to the Bears. While Brett Favre's return has drawn more attention than the health care debate, the quarterback garnering the second most headlines this summer was Jay Cutler. As time went on, rumors of his prowess became exaggerated, like a senior citizen telling the story of when he singlehandedly won the state championship 60 years earlier: "I heard he once threw three touchdowns in a game ... with his left hand." "I heard he stopped eating anything yellow or green once he was traded to the Bears." "I heard he agreed to build the Olympic Village all by himself if Chicago gets the bid."

The Vanderbilt grad has played just two full seasons in the NFL, and his passer rating ranked 16th of 32 last year. Dan Marino he is not. However, he did throw 25 touchdown passes and finished third in passing yards. Cutler is young, his stock is rising, and given that Bears fans have dealt with a conspicuous lack of talent at this unfamiliar position known as the "quarterback" for the past few decades, fans have every right to be excited.

Plus, when Cutler's not slinging the ball downfield, he'll be handing off to 1,000-yard rusher Matt Forte. And having Adrian Peterson to put in there every so often is just fine with me--Peterson averaged 5.0 yards per carry last year and has averaged 4.1 for his career; Forte averaged 3.9 last year.

But lo, that receiving corps. Greg Olsen should have a great year at tight end, but I can't help but worry about a group of wideouts led by a guy who's never caught a pass in the NFL (Earl Bennett) and return man turned cornerback turned return man turned receiver Devin Hester. The first few games might be a bit of an experiment when it comes to the passing game, and if Aromashodu, Knox, Davis or Iglesias steps up big at some point, they could find themselves in the starting lineup pretty quickly.

Worries aside, the Bears are all but guaranteed to improve upon their 26th ranked offense from a year ago. They should be able to keep opposing defenses on their heels a bit more by staying out of predictable patterns such as always running on first down or always running on third and short (I refer you to Cutler's play action bullet to Desmond Clark on third-and-1 against the Broncos). And the offense should be able to move the sticks even when they can't score points, keeping the defense off the field more than they did last year when they ranked 28th in time of possession.

Speaking of the defense, they get the lion's share of my concern. They ranked in the bottom third of the league last year, and with Tillman coming off back surgery, Kevin "Missed Tackle" Payne at strong safety, and a very similar-looking defensive line as the one that invited opposing quarterbacks to enjoy a sandwich and a cold glass of milk before throwing the ball last year, you can see why I'm concerned.

The Bears had just 28 sacks last year, less than half that of the league leader, Dallas. Ogunleye needs to live up to his contract, Tommie Harris needs to get back into form, and the rest of the line needs to produce more pressure for the Bears to win.

And last, but not necessarily least: special teams. Hester looked more decisive on his preseason punt returns, and while the Bears garnered the advantage of teams kicking away from him last year, they need Hester to prove he's still an explosive threat in the return game this year in order to maintain that advantage.

Robbie Gould and his 90% success rate return this year, and there's no reason to believe he won't continue his solid footwork this season.

All in all, the Bears seem markedly improved on offense, but not to the point that they'll be one of the elite groups in the league. There's certainly room for improvement on defense if Urlacher is in fact significantly healthier than last year and the defensive line can create a little more havoc than they did a year ago, but on paper, they seem pretty similar. And their special teams could improve if Hester runs upfield instead of sideways on punt returns.

Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card berth