Super Bowl Preview

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Storylines:

-The Steelers have won two of the last five Super Bowls, while the Packers last won it in 1997. Green Bay also lost the 1998 Super Bowl against the Broncos.

-The Packers, who have been around for, like, a long time, won the first two Super Bowls, giving them three total. Their supposedly "proud" history contains some bullshit about how they play on "frozen tundra" and are owned by random fat Wisconsinites.

-The Steelers won four titles in the 70s, giving them six total. They've been owned by the same family ever since Art Rooney founded the franchise in 1933. You just don't see that any more. How refreshing. We should all laud the Steelers for being a model of consistency, and should show our support by rooting for them on Sunday.

-While the Steelers, Patriots and Colts have combined for eight Super Bowl appearances in the last ten years, the NFC has incredibly had 10 teams make it over the last decade. The six who haven't played in February:

Lions: Bad.

Vikings: Even Favre couldn't save them.

Redskins: Because owner Daniel Snyder is a douche.

Cowboys: Haha.

Falcons: There's nothing worse than being the only team in the NFC South not to have made the Super Bowl in the last 10 years.

49ers: Check that. Being the only team in the NFC West not to have made it is WAY worse.

What to watch for: Blitzkrieg. And by that I mean, "a krieg's worth of blitzes." These two teams ranked 1 and 2 in total points allowed this season (with Pittsburgh being #1), and also in sacks (with Pittsburgh #1 there, too). Both defensive coordinators will surely cook up some exotic blitzes, and this game could come down to which "D" is able to pressure the opposing QB and get him out of his rhythm.

X factor: Rashard Mendenhall. I don't think Packers' rookie James Starks will be able to do much against a stout Steeler defense. But if Mendenhall can give the Steelers a running game and put Big Ben in short third down situations, it would give Pittsburgh a huge edge in what will likely be a close-fought game.

Prediction: Steelers 21, Packers 17. This is in no way an objective prediction. I would like nothing more than to see the Packers metaphorically sodomized with a traffic cone covered in pine needles. Again, metaphorically. I hate their organization, I hate their asshole fans, and I hate their stupid quarterback. He is awesome, though, which makes me hate him even more. So get out your Terrible Towel, put on your Troy Polamalu wig, and destroy all the cheese in your house. Or, put another way: Go Steelers!

Armageddon.

Reinforce the bunker. Stock up on non-perishables. The time draws near. It was prophesied:

There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. Men will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken.

Luke 21: 25-26

The Bears' last (and only) playoff game against the Packers was in 1941. So that means it's been, um, A LONG F--KING TIME since this happened, which is because THIS ONLY HAPPENS IN A CRAZY WORLD WITH NO RULES. Never before have two division rivals met in the NFC Championship, and when it happens on Sunday it will be a battle of the two oldest rivals in football. The Bears and the Packers. Good versus evil. One will go home, one will go to the Super Bowl. It's the end of the f--king world.

It's so right. Or maybe it's wrong, I don't know; the whole thing's just so nonsensical. How can the Bears be one win away from their second Super Bowl in five years, and how can it be the Green Bay Packers who stand in their way? It's awesome. It's scary. It's beautiful and daunting. Try to enjoy it. No matter what happens on Sunday, this has turned into one of the most exciting Bears seasons in history.

In my book, this will be the third-most important game the Bears have played in my lifetime, behind only their two Super Bowl appearances. And it might go down in history as the biggest game the Bears and Packers will ever play against one another. It's kind of a big deal.

They've played twice this year already, though both teams were rather different versions of themselves in the first meeting--back in September--when the Bears won 20-17 at home. The Bears' leading rusher was ... Jay Cutler, who, you might recall, is a quarterback. The Packers' leading receiver was ... Jermichael Finley, who is out for the year. And the Packers racked up 18 penalties in the loss.

Their second match-up, of course, was in Week 17. The Bears had nothing to play for but tried real hard, whereas the Packers had everything to play for. The Bears' D held the Pack in check but a strangely pass-heavy Bears offense mustered just three points. A 10-3 Packers victory launched them into the playoffs as the six seed and ultimately led to this Sunday's apocalyptic contest.

Green Bay has put up 69 points in two playoff victories, and have suddenly found a respectable rushing attack with James Starks. Aaron Rodgers absolutely shredded the Falcons defense, but I think the going will get a lot tougher at Soldier Field against the Bears' quality defense. This is not a great match-up for the Bears, though. While they can take away any team's running game, the Packers don't really care--they're a pass-first team anyways. The members of the Bears' secondary better eat their Wheaties.

On the offensive side of the ball (stop me if I've said this before), the Bears will need to be balanced. Their successful running game has enabled them to go 8-2 overall since their bye, and they racked up 176 rushing yards against Seattle. Cutler will need to watch out for fourth-year cornerback Tramon Williams: he had six picks this year and has three more in the playoffs.

The game could hinge on the third phase--special teams. In kickoff return average the Bears are second compared to the Packers' 26th. And whereas Devin Hester set an NFL record for average punt return, the Packers rank just 22nd in the NFL in that category. Hester's first of three punt return TDs this season came against Green Bay.

I haven't really celebrated Christmas the last few years, nor have I made any New Year's resolutions. Can I cash all those in for one wish? Can I just wish for the Bears to rape and pillage the Green Bay Packers and earn a trip to Dallas on February 6th? Just for the Packers to die a football death worthy of a Quentin Tarantino movie? Y'know, just to hear the words "slaughter," "destruction" and "massacre" applied to the Bears' beat down of the Packers. I just want to cheer on Lovie and the Bears and then laugh as they manhandle Mike McCarthy and his merry band of asshats. HAHAHAHAHA, I will say. Ha.

Prediction: Locusts and hail ravage the Chicago area, the Earth bursts into flames, and the galaxy implodes. Also: Bears 23, Packers 21

The 1941 Bears, who defeated the Packers 33-14 in the playoffs in route to an NFL Championship.

As my mom said, I guess there's no spell check in Cheeseland. Also, people who live in Green Bay are stupid.

AFC Championship Preview

Prediction remix:

"Patriots in a game that's close but not really all that close."

Um, no. In fact, it was just the opposite--while the Jets won by just a touchdown, it never felt that close.

"This one comes down to the last play. ... Steelers by three."

Actually, seven. But I'll take it.

#6 Jets @ #2 Steelers

Sunday, 5:30 CST

Storylines:

-Amazingly, Mark Sanchez has led the Jets to the AFC Championship in each of his first two seasons; the franchise had only been to two prior to last year. The Jets haven't reached the Super Bowl since 1969.

-Sanchez has also already tied the record for road playoff wins by a QB with four.

-The Steelers won the AFC Championship in '06 and '09, winning the Super Bowl in those years as well.

-These two teams faced off in Pittsburgh in Week 15, with the Jets managing a 22-17 win.

-The Steelers traded receiver Santonio Holmes to the Jets this previous offseason after one too many off-the-field incidents. He had over 700 yards and six TDs this season, and had a beautiful touchdown grab against the Patriots last week.

What to watch for: The Steelers allowed an absurd 62 rushing yards/game this season; next-best in the NFL were the Bears at 90. In third? The Jets, at 91. I expect both teams to utilize short passes and screen passes so as to avoid third-and-long situations.

X factor: I have two:

1) Holmes. He's a big-play receiver (see: game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII) and would undoubtedly love nothing more than to burn his former team.

2) Brad Smith of the Jets. The receivers/running back/return man averaged eight yards per carry this year and had two kickoff return TDs, one against the Steelers.

(and Troy Polamalu too)

Prediction: The Jets have proved vulnerable to good defenses this season: they lost to the Ravens and Packers, and while they scored 22 against Pittsburgh earlier this year, nine of those points came on the aforementioned kickoff return TD and a safety. I've already picked against the Jets wrongly twice--why stop now? Steelers 21, Jets 13.

Bears' 2010 luck stretches into 2011

Tyler Thigpen. Drew Stanton. Joe Webb. A schedule that looked difficult prior to the season but turned out to be softer than Puffs Plus when patsies like Carolina and Buffalo helped the Bears crank up the Win Machine 11 times in the regular season.

And now this. An 8-9 team coming to Soldier Field with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line. Really? Is this really happening? Why do I feel like any moment now I'm going to be telling my friends about this dream I had in which the Bears were playing the Seahawks in the second round of the playoffs? ("The Seahawks? And you believed that? Even for a dream, that's weird, dude ...")

Who is the Greek god of football anyway, whom we must thank? Wait, there IS no Greek god of football? That's ridiculous. There's a goddess of water-meadows. There's a god of forethought, for god's sake. There MUST be a god of football. After all, how could it be possible for the Bears to face a team that still hasn't won as many games as it's lost this season without the benevolent assistance of a merciful god of football?

But just to be clear, this isn't to say the Bears aren't a good team. Luck and talent aren't mutually exclusive. In fact, when it comes to sports, talent is best served with a nice hearty side of luck. The Bears have had their share this year, but they've also taken advantage of it.

In honor of the aforementioned god of forethought, let's think a bit more about this upcoming game. We'd be wise to remember that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL playoffs, as the Saints could attest. In fact, the Bears already lost to the Seahawks earlier this season, 23-20, in what turned out to be one of just two road wins for Seattle all year. Plus, if you weren't aware, this will also be Cutler's playoff debut. But there's good news. Here are a few of the very fixable things that went wrong on October 17:

• Cutler got sacked six times. While the offensive line still has its share of problems (the Packers got him six times in Week 17 as well), it has definitely improved since then. Cutler was sacked five times combined against New England, Minnesota and the Jets.
• As was common early in the season, the play calling was extremely unbalanced: 45 passes and 14 runs. Seattle's run defense is below average and the Bears committed to the run game in the second half of the season. Expect a very different offensive approach Sunday compared to what we saw in Week 6.
• The Bears were a horrific, pathetic 0-for-12 on third down and still lost by just three. Such an extreme lack of success on third down would be hard to replicate even if the Bears tried.
• Lance Briggs missed the game, but he'll be on the field Sunday.

While we certainly can't take anything for granted, the Bears will have the clear talent advantage this weekend and face a team that was 2-6 on the road this season. In their last three road games, the Seahawks lost by 15, 19 and 23. So while the Falcons worked hard to secure the #1 seed, they now face the red-hot Packers while the Bears get quite possibly the worst team ever to have made the playoffs.

Lastly, I am required by law to provide a prediction remix, wherein we find that I may or may not have analogized the Seahawks to an unhygienic, rather freakish girl who embarrasses herself in a beauty pageant by injuring herself after falling off the stage. I was just kidding, Seahawks! You took that seriously? Noooo, I was totally kidding. Toooootally kidding.

Prediction: The Seahawks are forced to rely on the pass while the Bears' balanced attack enables them to pull away. Bears by 13.

Divisional Round Preview: NFC (the not-Bears game)

Prediction remix:

"I'll go with the Packers. If it comes down to the end of the game and one defense has to step up and make a play, I like the Packers' D to make that play."

Nailed it!

#6 Packers (11-6) @ #1 Falcons (13-3)

Saturday, 7:00 CST

Storylines:

-These two met in Atlanta in Week 12. Green Bay tied it with under a minute to go but Atlanta returned the kick to the 49 and ultimately kicked a field goal to win it.

-Matt Ryan is 20-2 at the Georgia Dome in his career.

-The Falcons last reached the NFC Championship in the '04-'05 season, the Packers in the '07-'08 season.

What to watch for: Can the Packers remain balanced on offense? James Starks had 101 yards rushing all season but had 123 against the Eagles last week. While the Falcons have been balanced all year, it will be interesting to see if the Packers can have success on the ground once again.

X factor: Falcons defensive end John Abraham. He was fifth in the NFL this season with 13 sacks and got Rodgers once back in Week 12. You have to get pressure on Rodgers if you wanna beat the Packers, and Abraham is the key to the Falcons' pass rush.

Prediction: This should be a great game. But while the Packers did win on the road last week, they were just 3-5 away from Lambeau in the regular season. Combine that with Ryan's amazing home record ... I'm going with the trends in this one. Falcons in a nail-biter.

Divisional Round Preview: AFC

One thing I hate is when radio and TV personalities make predictions and then don't own up to them after the games take place. So here you go:

Prediction remix:

"The Ravens can stop the run just about as well as anyone ... Ravens by seven."

The Ravens actually won by 23. I'll take it.

"I'm not ready to pick against Peyton Manning ... I don't trust Mark Sanchez ... Jets kicker Nick Folk has one of the lowest field goal percentages in the league ... Colts in a close one."

Sanchez led the Jets down the field with under a minute to go and Folk hit the game-winner. I suck.

THEME SONG FOR THIS WEEKEND'S AFC MATCH-UPS (fast-forward to 1:00 mark):

Turns out that video's kind of weirdly inappropriate. But what I'm trying to say is: I'm so excited. And I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control and I think I like it. I mean, a classic Ravens/Steelers match-up AND another Jets/Patriots game? That's fantastic!

#5 Ravens (13-4) @ #2 Steelers (12-4)

Saturday, 3:30 CST

Storylines:

-They've split 2-2 over the last two seasons, every game has been decided by three points and each team has scored 67 points total.

-In the 2008-09 AFC Championship, Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 23-14 en route to a Super Bowl victory.

What to watch for: Both teams rank in the top five in rush defense. Will Ray Rice or Rashard Mendenhall be able to carve out any success, or will the game's outcome rely on the arms of the QBs?

X factor: Troy Polamalu. In my view, he's the most important defensive player in the NFL. He's a forced turnover waiting to happen.

Prediction: This one comes down to the last play. When in doubt, take the home team: Steelers by three.

#6 Jets (12-5) @ #1 Patriots (14-2)

Sunday, 3:30 CST

Storylines:

-I wanted a third Jets/Patriots game. I needed a third Jets/Patriots game. These coaches hate each other like Brett Favre hates retirement.

-They split their regular season match-ups, but the Patriots won 45-3 in New England in Week 13.

-The Jets are trying to make it two straight years in the AFC Championship; the Patriots last made it in '08.

What to watch for: When the two coaches shake hands after the game, will Rex Ryan make any attempt to eat Bill Belichick? Will Belichick use his secret knowledge of the rare form of martial arts known as aikido to kill Ryan in 1.2 seconds?

X factor: The tight ends. The middle of the field is often the easiest place to attack the Jets given their strength at cornerback. That works just fine for the Pats as Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowki combined for 16 TDs this year. On the other side, Dustin Keller had five TDs of his own this year including one against New England in Week 2.

Prediction: Belichick is a Master Technician (seriously, that's the name for those who are Level 6 aikido), and now he has a chance to game plan against a team he's already seen twice this year. Plus, he's got some dude named Brady on his sideline. Patriots in a game that's kind of close but not really all that close.

Wild Card Weekend Preview: AFC

#6 Jets (11-5) @ #3 Colts (10-6)

Saturday, 7:00 CST

Storylines:

-The two faced off in last year's AFC Championship game with the Colts winning 30-17 on the strength of a 17-0 second half. Rex Ryan, whose defenses are 1-5 against Peyton Manning (and in the one win, Manning didn't even play the second half), says it's personal against the QB, that he has "waited a full year for this" and wants to "put the shoe on the other foot" by knocking him out of the playoffs. Bad wording there, Rex. No mention of shoes or feet for you for at least, like, six months.

-The Colts are the go-about-your-business bunch with the low-key coach; the Jets are an in-your-face team with a coach who predicted his team would win the Super Bowl before the season. Makes me want the Colts.

-Peyton Manning returns to the playoffs for the 800th year in a row, while Mark Sanchez is now two-for-two in his short career. This game has something of an old guard vs. new guard theme goin' on, or something like that. Sanchez going to the playoffs his first two years but getting knocked out by the always-in-the-playoffs Manning? Makes me want the Jets.

What to watch for: Prior to the game, will Rex Ryan use Lucas Oil Stadium as a refreshing new setting for a foot fetish video? And if so, will the NFL allow him to use their cameras so it will be in hi-def?

X factor: The kickers. While the Jets' Nick Folk has one of the lowest field goal percentages in the league, the Colts' Adam Vinatieri has missed just two all season.

Prediction: These ain't your older brother's Colts. Injuries to receivers, a tight end and safety Bob Sanders have transformed the Colts from the near-infallible squad we've become used to into a 10-6 team that didn't put the Jaguars away until last Sunday. But they were 6-2 at home this year and I'm not ready to pick against Peyton Manning. After all, it is a night game. On top of that, I don't trust Mark Sanchez. Colts in a close one.

#5 Ravens (12-4) @ #4 Chiefs (10-6)

Sunday, 12:00 CST

Storylines:

-The Ravens won two more games than the Chiefs this year but are forced to go on the road because they're in a division with the Steelers while the Chiefs ... well, aren't.

-The Chiefs bring their league-best running game against the Ravens' top-five rush defense.

What to watch for: Are the Chiefs ready for playoff football? They haven't been to the postseason since 2006, haven't hosted a playoff game since 2003, and haven't won a playoff game since 1993. The Ravens, on the other hand, have been invited to the playoff party four of the last five years.

X factor: Ravens safety Ed Reed. Matt Cassel has been very protective of the ball this year--just seven interceptions--but Reed had an insane eight interceptions in just 10 games this year.

Prediction: The Chiefs didn't lose at home until Sunday against the Raiders, and their league-best running game is nothing to sneeze at. But the Ravens can stop the run just about as well as anyone, and besides, this is a passing league. Ravens by seven.

Wild Card Weekend Preview: NFC

#5 Saints (11-5) @ #4 Seahawks (7-9)

Saturday, 3:30 CST

Storylines:

-So we do in fact have to let the Seahawks play in the playoffs just because they won their division? That's official? Okay, fine, just checking.

-The Seahawks as a playoff team are like the smelly girl from down the street whom we have to let participate in the town beauty pageant because, well, I mean she got all her paperwork in on time, so what can we really do? Yes, I know the neighbors say she doesn't brush her teeth because she says "toothbrushes feel prickly" and yes, I know her talent portion is likely to be that weird, disturbing dance she can sometimes be seen practicing on her front lawn with her pet mouse, but dammit I'm not gonna be the one to tell her parents she can't participate.

What to watch for: Will it be Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck behind center? In a 34-19 loss earlier this season, Hasselbeck had a very good game but a balanced Saints team still beat the Seahawks easily. With that in mind, does it really f--king matter who starts at quarterback? Unless Pete Carroll decides to start himself, no, no it does not.

X Factor: Turnovers. I can't see how it's possible for the Seahawks to win this game unless they somehow dominate the turnover battle.

Prediction: The girl from down the street falls off the stage and sustains life-threatening injuries. (i.e. Saints win easy.)

#6 Packers (10-6) @ #3 Eagles (10-6)

Sunday, 3:30 CST

Storylines:

-These two met up in Philly way back in Week 1, back during the Kevin Kolb Experiment. Vick came in after Kolb got hurt and made it close, but the Packers won 27-20.

-Both teams lost in the first round last season. The last time they faced each other in the playoffs was the '03-'04 season when Donovan McNabb led the Eagles to victory after converting a late 4th-and-26 to send it into overtime. (Yes, I had to look that up.)

What to watch for: Both Mike McCarthy and Andy Reid suck at time management, but which will make the terrible decision that cripples his team at a critical time? Will McCarthy go for two after a game-tying touchdown? Will Reid call a timeout before the game starts? Will either of them, late in the game, opt to punt from the red zone?

X factor: Special teams. The Packers' kickoff and punt return averages suck, whereas the Eagles of course have DeSean Jackson. Jackson only has the one touchdown against the Giants, but he has a solid return average and could help the Eagles win the field position battle.

Prediction: I don't know, I don't know ... I DON'T KNOW, OK?? I guess I'll go with the Packers. If it comes down to the end of the game and one defense has to step up and make a play, I like the Packers' D to make that play. The Eagles' offensive line scares me. Rooting for the Eagles, picking the Packers. Now lay off.