2009 Cubs season preview

PLAY BALL!

Opening Day is upon us.

Opening Day is not simply the first day of baseball. Rather, it is like Christmas to the committed Cubs fan. It is an annual celebration of the birth of a new season; a day on which we can rekindle our belief that anything is possible. Starting today, we anticipate miracles of a Major League magnitude. We prepare to sacrifice hours in front of the television and beside the radio in the hopes that we will reap that elusive and eternal reward--a resurrection of Cubs greatness.

Opening Day is also a defiant meteorological statement. Snow and sweatshirts be damned, for the pinstripes will be donned today and when Soriano steps to the plate, two seasons will simultaneously commence--baseball, and spring. Baseball will slide us into the long-awaited sixty degree weather, and then slowly, spring shall unfold into a summer splashed with sunshine, strikes and the scintillating stylings of Ron Santo. Then, as summer begins to fade away and we see the first signs of fall's foliage, the fight for first place will become frantic and then finally--finalized.

So where will the Cubs be when the regular season is over in October? In an attempt to answer that question, here is my analysis of the 2009 Cubs (apologies for the length of this post, but this is a Cubs blog, after all). Get ready, Cubs fans--the wait 'til this year is over. This year is here.

Roster
The Cubs won 97 games last year following a successful 85-win campaign in 2007. Lou Piniella led the Cubs to back-to-back playoff appearances, the first time the Cubs have achieved that feat since 1907-08. While the Cubs retained many key players from last year, they had a surprising amount of turnover. Players who will be listed on this year's Opening Day roster who weren't in pinstripes last April include: Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Aaron Miles, Joey Gathright, Milton Bradley, Rich Harden, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, David Patton, Angel Guzman, and Kevin Gregg. Amazingly, that's 44% of the Cubs roster.

Of course, some of these players were on the roster when the season ended, including Rich Harden. The Cubs got a little more left-handed (Bradley and Miles), a little more speedy (Gathright), perhaps a little less powerful (loss of Mark DeRosa), and quite possibly a little shakier out of the 'pen (Kerry Wood et al were replaced with some question marks and mediocre talent).

Starting rotation
Despite some changes, the Cubs' core returns. The top four starters from a year ago (the end of the year, anyways, after acquiring Rich Harden from the A's) will man the hill once again, in Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden, while Sean Marshall replaces Jason Marquis at the back end.

Zambrano is a safe bet to win 15 or more; Lilly has been impressive since coming over to the NL, posting 15-8 and 17-9 records with the Cubs--the league might catch up to him a bit in his third year, but he should remain solid. Ryan Dempster was unbelievable in his transition to starter last year, and hopefully he can follow up his 17-win season with a 14- or 15-win season this year, if not better. Rich Harden is of course a constant injury risk, and has only won 10 or more games three times in his six year career. If he's healthy, he's lights out, and hopefully he can make more than the 17 starts he has averaged in his career. And while it's a significant drop off, the Cubs could slot Aaron Heilman into the rotation if Harden has to miss significant time.

In 2008, Cubs starters led the league in wins and ERA, and the staff as a whole led the NL in strikeouts for the 8th year in a row. I think Dempster and Lilly have the potential to decline a bit, but Harden and Marshall over Sean Gallagher/Rich Hill and Jason Marquis should be an improvement. This should still be a very potent rotation, and with the Cubs offense, they should once again rack up the wins.

Offense
The story is similar on the offensive side: Jim Hendry made some changes, but the core remains. Soto will still be behind the plate, while three of the four infield positions stay pat with Lee, Theriot and Ramirez. Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles replace Mark DeRosa (though DeRosa played a lot of right last year and Fontenot did get significant playing time) at second base. The outfield will look a bit different with a Fukudome/Johnson platoon in center (as opposed to an Edmonds/Johnson platoon), newly acquired Milton Bradley in right, and Soriano still hopping out in left.

The Cubs led the NL in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage last season en route to their 97-win season. They've added some balance (as it stands, the typical lineup will be R-L-R-S-R-L-R-R) and despite the loss of DeRosa, they still have some versatility with guys like Miles, Gathright and Hoffpauir. About the offense, I have four main concerns:

1) Depth. We have no solid backup to either Soto or Ramirez. If either player ends up on the DL, production will drop off significantly.
2) Will Fukudome's sophomore year be better than his freshman year? He spun his way right out of the lineup last season, and Piniella's clearly counting on better results this year as he slots him into the 2-spot in the lineup. If he struggles, the pressure could mount and the Cubs could have to shuffle their lineup.
3) This is an obvious one: can Milton Bradley remain healthy? He has played more than 120 games just twice in his nine-year career.
4) Can Derrek Lee get his power stroke back? He hit five home runs after the All-Star break last year and slugged a pathetic .390.

Concerns aside, this is a lineup similar to the one that owned NL pitching in 2008, and if they can continue to draw walks and get on base, they should put up a lot of runs once again. My favorite thing about Milton Bradley is that he's not just a power guy--he's an on-base guy. He's not a free agent who's going to come in and mess with the Cubs' newfound philosophy of taking pitches and working the count.

Bullpen
This is where the real change begins. The Cubs used a total of 18 pitchers out of the 'pen last year, but the seven pitchers with the most appearances were:

Marmol
Howry
Wood
Cotts (L)
Wuertz
Marshall (L)
Samardzija

Jon Lieber and Chad Gaudin also deserve mention. Here's how the relievers stack up going into this season:

Marmol
Heilman
Vizcaino
Gregg
Cotts (L)
Guzman
Patton

That's five new faces out of seven. Bullpens are always difficult to predict--would you have listed Toronto, Philadelphia, the Dodgers, Oakland and Tampa Bay as your top five bullpens going into last year? Fortunately, the Cubs don't have to dominate in order to match last year's performance, when the 'pen ranked 15th in the majors in ERA.

If I had to guess, I'd say this bullpen will be slightly below average. Marmol is talented but young; Gregg is solid but was demoted from the closer role with Florida last year; Vizcaino carries a 4.34 career ERA; Heilman's is similar at 4.24; Neal Cotts is OK but essentially made the team because he throws with his left hand; Patton is a 24-year-old unknown who has never pitched above Class A; and Guzman has appeared in just 33 games in his career, 19 of them as a reliever.

Bench
From Blanco, Cedeno, Ward, Edmonds, and Pie to Koyie Hill, Hoffpauir, Miles, Johnson and Gathright. Now that's turnover. The bench is an underrated part of a baseball team, especially with a manager like Piniella who likes to keep people fresh. Hill will most likely be terrible (please God don't let Soto get hurt); Hoffpauir should provide some nice pop; Miles is scrappy and I like him; Johnson plays the game right and should get plenty of playing time; and Gathright adds some speed and glovework. As I said before, this bench provides some nice flexibility and should serve the Cubs pretty well.

Prediction
It seems clear that the Cubs are in a "win now" mode (and they have the pieces to do just that), and Hendry most likely has the flexibility to add payroll at the trade deadine if need be (Jake Peavy, anyone?). I won't make this post even more ridiculously long by previewing the other NL Central teams, but I think the Cubs have the firepower to take their third straight division title. I have to admit: this season feels a little scary, like the Cubs could be that team that suddenly falters when everyone isn't looking. There's always a team--in any sport--expected to do really well that just doesn't gel and doesn't get it done. Absolutely no one is predicting the Cubs NOT to finish first in the Central, and while we know all too well that the real prize we're seeking resides in October (technically November this year), the Cubs need to remain focused in order to win a division with a Cardinals team that appears to have a healthy Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright, a Brewers team that won 90 games last year, and an Astros team that could make noise (especially if they pick up another pitcher at some point). Heck, even the Reds and Pirates have some young pitchers that could come into their own.

Anyways, read the post below for my predictions.

And Go Cubs!