Sizing up the lineup

Before the season starts up (in eight days!!), I wanted to take a look at the Cubs lineup. The lineup has been controversial ever since the Cubs acquired Soriano, and with a few additions and subtractions this year, there's even more room for debate regarding the Cubs batting order. Here's what it will probably look like come April 6:

1. Alfonso Soriano, LF
2. Kosuke Fukudome, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Milton Bradley, RF
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
6. Mike Fontenot, 2B
7. Geovany Soto, C
8. Ryan Theriot, SS
9. Pitcher

So Soriano will still be belting leadoff solo home runs; Fukudome will either set the table nicely with his ability to get on base or create a black hole in the two spot with his complete inability to get on base; Lee, whose slugging percentage was better than that of only Fukudome and Theriot last year, will still bat third; Bradley provides the lefty 'tween the two sluggers; and Theriot would bring up the rear.

Baseball Musings, a great Web site, has a lineup analysis tool that uses players' on-base percentages and slugging percentages to determine the best and worst possible lineups. Plugging in last year's numbers for these players, Baseball Musings projects the following:

• Best lineup: 5.42 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game

The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008.

Their best lineup, interestingly, looks like this:

1. Bradley
2. Fontenot
3. Fukudome
4. Ramirez
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Pitcher
9. Theriot

Few things: 1) this is a very untraditional lineup that we would never see, but it's interesting to look at, 2) notice the little LaRussa-ism in there, with Theriot batting ninth behind the pitcher, and 3) all three lefties are at the top, eliminating all the lineup balance Piniella is seeking for this year's team.

Here's how I would fill out the lineup card:

1. Theriot
2. Fontenot
3. Ramirez
4. Bradley
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Johnson/Fukudome
9. Pitcher

This lineup generally places the strong OBP at the top, whereas Piniella's backloads them. Baseball Musings points out that the Cubs just may score more runs in the second inning this year than the first, with on-base guys like Bradley, Ramirez and Fontenot coming up in the second.

This lineup also provides nearly the same balance as Piniella's, with lefties batting 2, 4 and 8. I've placed the Cajun Connection and their +.380 OBPs at the top. While I hope I'm wrong, Lee seems to be to be on the decline, and I would take his subpar slugging percentage and move it down. Ramirez is the purest run producer on the team, so I move him into the all-important three hole, with lefty Bradley behind him. Soriano's .532 slugging percentage looks nice in the six spot, followed by the capable Soto and presumably the weakest (though hopefully not weak) part of the lineup, the Reed Johnson/Fukudome platoon.

Under the assumption Piniella doesn't read my blog and alter his lineup plans, the Cubs offense should still be in good shape. This is virtually the same lineup that led the NL in runs scored (855), OBP (.354), SLG (.443), and finished second in batting average (.278) in 2008. Can you BELIEVE the Cubs--the Chicago freakin' Cubs--led the NL in on-base percentage? If the Cubs maintain a focus on taking bad pitches, drawing walks, and getting on base however they can, this offense will be another force to be reckoned with. They've essentially replaced Fukudome with Bradley and Johnson/Edmonds with Johnson/Fukudome. Lee has room to improve over last year, Fukudome was useless for three months, Soriano missed over 50 games, and Soto was just a rookie. On the other hand, can Theriot and Fontenot keep it up? Will Bradley trot out to right field enough to justify his contract?

One note on Fukudome: I can understand giving him a chance to play everyday--he's making $12 mil, and he demonstrated potential last April and May. The Cubs' high OBP was even referred to as the Fukudome Factor until Fukudome himself was no longer a factor. But I am worried about him. He looked lost during the WBC, tallying no extra base hits and getting benched for the championship game. Reed Johnson plays the game hard and finds ways to contribute. So once again, I understand giving Fukudome a shot, but I personally would have him on a short leash.

So, what do you think about the lineup? Share your thoughts and suggestions in the comments.

Here's to setting another franchise record for walks and breaking the 900 run mark!