Week 20 awards: Cubs find new ways to lose games ... and a manager

A 1-0 loss to former Cubs' prospect Jon Garland. A blown save courtesy of three walks by Carlos Marmol. A rare implosion by Sean Marshall. A 16-5 loss to the Braves that mirrored their Opening Day defeat.

Nope, no form of losing is off-limits for the Cubs these days. Thank God for the God-awful Pirates, for that giant piece of baseball feces out in Steel City is the only thing keeping the Cubs from crashing to the bottom of the NL Central. It's becoming as difficult to keep track of the revolving door of a roster as it is the mounting loss total--a 100-loss season remains unlikely but within the realm of possibility.

And the Cubs managed to lose their skipper as well. Lou Piniella's mother is ailing, but he is only able to skip town to care for her because his team's season has been dead for months. Surprisingly, Mike Quade will take over beginning tonight against Washington. I can't fathom that he would have any chance of keeping the post into 2011, but hopefully some new blood can at least inject some life into this flailing franchise.

Ryno of the Week: Though it's sad to say, Aramis Ramirez's .244 batting average marks his high point for the season. He also now leads the team in home runs with 20 after an 11-for-28 week with two home runs and seven RBI. He had at least two RBI in each game of the series against the Braves.

Honorable mention: Kosuke Fukudome

Goat of the Week: When hard-throwing Andrew Cashner was called up in late May, I surmised that he probably wasn't ready to be a successful major league pitcher. Unfortunately, it looks like I was right. In four appearances this week, Cashner allowed six earned runs in just 3.1 innings. He ERA sits at 6.69. He's got decent stuff and certainly I hope he can contribute in 2011, but he's a little too raw to get the job done in the 7th or 8th inning at the age of 23.

Dishonorable mention: Koyie Hill

Cubs use power to surge into third-place tie

Jim Prisching / AP

I will quickly dispense with the negative thought that can't help but run through my mind when it comes to Aramis Ramirez--that it would have been nice if a few of these home runs and RBI had come before the Grim Reaper took his scythe and hacked the 2010 Cubs season to pieces--and move on to the positive feelings that Cubs fans are feeling after 13 unanswered runs gave them a 14-7 victory over the Astros.

Ramirez is now hitting .404 since ... well, since he started hitting. He's had at least one hit in 10 of the last 13 games and at least two hits in nine of those games. He's also had at least one RBI in eight of those contests and scored at least one run in 10 of them. Actually, you know what--let's get a little crazy; I feel a list coming on:

Last 13 games:

19 hits

Most hits in any month, excluding July: 14

9 home runs

Number of games it took him to hit 9 home runs prior to the last 13: 75

24 RBI

RBI this season prior to last 13 games: 23

18 runs

Runs this season prior to last 13 games: 19

Last two games: 10 RBI

RBI in May and June combined: 10

Season stats extrapolating last 13 games to 162-game season: .404, 112 HR, 300 RBI

You can enjoy the ride he's on right now or be angry with him for mysteriously turning into a Single-A hitter for the first half of the season. I'm doing a little bit of both, myself, but trying to forget that the first three months ever happened. What do you mean Ramirez couldn't hit an 85 mph fastball down Broadway a month ago? I don't know what you're talking about, crazy person. The Cubs have scored over 6.6 runs per game over those last 13, and in this disappointing season, I'm choosing to be thankful for the fact that now, at least, the games are watchable.

While the offense has been hot, Silva and Dempster had perhaps the worst back-to-back starts we've seen all season the last two days, and hopefully Lilly can get the pitching back on track today. The team has scored more than three runs for Lilly just once in his last 11 starts, but it seems that he's taking the mound at the right time. They need a win to take their first series from Houston in three tries.

Week 14 awards: Aramis Ramirez asks us to kindly stop hating him

Yesterday's turd of a game notwithstanding, the Cubs seemed to be playing a better brand of baseball this week. I speak mostly of the offense, which put up 39 runs in the week's first six games. They drew walks, came through with runners in scoring position and generally enabled us viewers to refrain from expecting the worst for at least a few days.

The pitching was middling, however, and cost them two losses including Friday's in which Ted Lilly took the Cubs out of the game early even though the Cubs would eventually score seven runs. Lilly has not exactly boosted his trade value in the last couple weeks, but the deadline remains nearly three weeks away. Speaking of a possible Lilly trade, word is that the Mets would hope to take on much of his remaining salary so that they could part with lesser talent. I hope Hendry wouldn't go this route--Lilly's salary comes off the payroll after this season anyways, so what good does a trade do if it doesn't net some decent prospects?

Ryno of the Week: Who was that man blasting home run after home run, looking generally comfortable at the plate and enjoying the long-overdue opportunity to look up at the scoreboard and see a batting average starting with a "2"? Aramis Ramirez had at least one hit and one run in every game this week except yesterday's, and clubbed at least one extra-base hit in five different games. He was 12-for-28 with four home runs and nine RBI. It was utterly fantastic.

Honorable mentions: Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd

Goat of the Week: As happy as I am to write A-Ram's name above, I'm quite disappointed to be doling out the negative hardware to Tyler Colvin. His production has dipped noticeably in the last month or so, and he struggled to the tune of 2-for-17 this week with five strikeouts. Hopefully he can find his way through this slump and improve upon his .263 average.

Dishonorable mention: Ted Lilly

Can anyone give me one good reason why the Diamondbacks shouldn't move to the NL Central?

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

The last time the Cubs scored 15 or more runs in a two-game span was May 7-8 at Cincinnati.

The last time Aramis Ramirez had a game with four or more RBI was April 8 ... of last year.

The last time the Cubs won back-to-back games by more than one run was May 18-19.

The Cubs are now 5-1 against Arizona this year.

(Bad) stat of the day

How fitting is it that Aramis Ramirez, who is batting .168 this year, batted .167 in a two-game rehab stint with Class A Peoria? We've always known he was consistent, and that holds true this year--but not in a good way!

-----------------

It was nice to see Tiger Woods play relatively well and compete in the US Open, but it was strange to watch him, Phil, and a number of other top golfers miss opportunity after opportunity even after Dustin Johnson opened the door--or rather, brought in a wrecking ball and knocked down the whole wall with a triple bogey followed by a double followed by a bogey within the first four holes. But Graeme McDowell has a really cool accent, so I was okay with him taking the trophy.

Aramis squares one up, Cubs win 4-2

(AP)

I wasn't going to write a recap of last night's game, but I simply couldn't resist putting pen to paper (er, whatever) after seeing Aramis Ramirez do something he hadn't done since Tax Day--hit a home run. There's no telling whether that walk-off bomb will finally get him going again, but it's fun to assume it will, so ... yay, Ramirez is back!

But seriously, that was easily the best moment of the season for me. In just 39 games, my feelings on Ramirez sank from having complete faith in him to extreme frustration to basically assuming he would never ever hit the ball hard ever again. I don't think I've ever taken that emotional journey quite so quickly. There were times the last couple years when I took part of that journey with Soriano, and I took that journey over a more extended time frame with Sammy Sosa, but this was different (I say "was" because, once again, I'm assuming Ramirez will bat at least .400 the rest of the year). I was to the point that if Ramirez would have hit a solo home run with the Cubs down by 10, I would have pretty much considered that game a success. For him to crush one in the 11th inning of a tie game? Well that's just downright delicious.

Sean Marshall claimed his second win in as many days with two perfect innings that included four strikeouts. The bullpen threw four innings in all and had success for the most part, but two walks by Grabow and a four-pitch walk from Marmol to a guy who has had three seasons in which he walked fewer than 10 times allowed the Rox to force extras. Randy Wells had a strong start, scattering seven hits and escaping a bases loaded, one-out jam in the fourth.

Derrek Lee made many, many outs, but Fukudome and Castro combined for five hits and two runs at the top of the order. Castro also stole a base easily (on the negative side, he failed to get a successful bunt down).

The only thing that tempered the Cubs' second walk-off win of the season was the elephant in the dugout, er, room--why was Carlos Zambrano in the dugout rather than available from the bullpen last night? It turns out he's moving to a long-relief role, which leads you to believe he's on his way back to the rotation. There have been a lot of calls lately for Z to be a starter again, and I'm okay with that. The only problem is, the bullpen will just get that much worse. The fact is, the Cubs just don't have enough good pitchers to form a good starting staff and a good bullpen, so they're sort of screwed either way. But Zambrano might have more success in a long-relief role since he often struggles in his first inning, as sinkerballers often do. He was not very effective as a one-inning set-up type guy.

The Cubs have just one sweep on the season (in Milwaukee), but I'm completely fine with their second coming in a short two-gamer.

Silva pitches well, offense does just enough in 4-3 win

It's May 13, the Cubs have played over 21 percent of their schedule, and Carlos Silva is still without a loss. He bounced back from two mediocre starts and moved to 4-0 with a solid outing against the Marlins yesterday. The Cubs are 6-1 in Silva's starts and three of their four wins in May have come in games in which he took the mound. It's quite possible that Silva could retire today and we would still say two years from now that Hendry fleeced the Mariners. I'm only half joking.

The offense didn't exactly bust out of their slump, but two big doubles by Mike Fontenot and Marlon Byrd--along with a wild pitch by Chris Volstad--enabled the Cubs to eke out a victory. Derrek Lee and Starlin Castro chipped in two hits apiece, and Aramis Ramirez was given another day off. Oh, that reminds me: a quick word on Aramis Ramirez saying he's his own hitting coach. Really, Aramis? Rudy Jaramillo and his $2.4 million contract beg to differ. Look, I know you're a veteran and all, and a player who's had a great deal of success in the past. Clearly you do have a pretty good idea how to hit a baseball. But right now, you don't. Your major league-worst .159 batting average indicates that if you are your own hitting coach, you suck at it. You're fired. Luckily, the Cubs happen to have another hitting coach on hand, and it just so happens that he's been paid to work with major league hitters for the last 20 years. Maybe just have a chat with him, chew the fat, a little tete-a-tete. Maybe drop the macho "I can do it all" shtick, because you can't. Not right now, anyway.

On that note, I also think it's time for Piniella to move both Derrek Lee and Ramirez down in the batting order. It doesn't have to be permanent, of course. I still have faith that both of them will have solid seasons, but right now, they are two big black holes in the middle of the lineup. Theriot and Fukudome tend to get on base (.357 and .422 OBPs, respectively), then Lee and Ramirez strike out, pop it up, etc., and the inning ends. To wit: yesterday, Lee popped out with runners at first and second and nobody out, and grounded out with a runner at third and only one out.

After our resident minor leaguers are done stabbing a rally in the chest dozens of times, the bottom of the order does decently, but the pitcher comes up and it's all for naught once again. On Monday, Lilly's first two at bats came with runners and first and third and then with the bases loaded. Suffice to say, those situations did not work out in the Cubs' favor. Move Lee and Ramirez down until they finally get hot, Lou, and then move them back up where they can do some damage. Right now the only thing they're damaging is Ron Santo's heart.

Carlos Marmol raised Santo's blood pressure in the ninth yesterday (and mine), though he did escape with his fifth save of the season. For some reason, he seemed to be overly reliant on his slider. Against Brian Barden, he threw five sliders and one fastball. Against Gaby Sanchez, four sliders and a curveball. I haven't seen that many sliders since I got drunk and went to White Castle with a stolen credit card. He finally did strike out Hanley Ramirez looking with a fastball on the inside corner, but where was that pitch for the first five hitters of the inning? But I digress. Marmol got the job done and the Cubs avoided the sweep.

Up next are the Pirates, who were just swept by the Reds and failed to score in their last two games. Just over a week after the Cubs were embarrassed in Pittsburgh, they get a chance for some revenge.

Fun with statistics

jonestein.mlblogs.com/fantasy-baseball.jpg

• Starlin Castro had six RBI after three major league at-bats. The man he essentially replaced in the lineup, Mike Fontenot, had 71 at-bats before Castro's call-up. In those 71 at-bats, he had ... six RBI. Fontenot nearly doubled his season's RBI total in his 72nd at-bat of the season with a pinch-hit grand slam.
  
• Aramis Ramirez has the same number of strikeouts (31) as hits and runs combined (20 + 11 = 31). Ramirez also has a lower batting average (.159) than Ryan Dempster and a lower OBP than Carlos Silva who, prior to this year, had not played in the National League since 2003.
• Speaking of Silva, he has four quality starts this season; he had one all of last season (granted, he was injured for a significant portion of it). Silva has three wins on the season; he had five the last two seasons combined.
  
• Ryan Theriot had back-to-back games with two stolen bases on April 12 and April 14. He has stolen only two other bases this season.
• Marlon Byrd has 23 RBI this season. The man he essentially replaced, Milton Bradley, notched his 23rd RBI on July 25 of last year.
• Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez have combined for fewer hits than Tigers rookie Austin Jackson.
• Of the four Cubs starters with the most starts, Gorzelanny and Dempster have the best ERAs (2.83 and 3.44, respectively) but the fewest wins (1 and 2). Silva and Wells (3.50 and 4.57) have three wins each.
  

Week four awards

Can someone please adjust the calendar in the Cubs' clubhouse to make it seem like every day is either Friday, Saturday or Sunday? For the second straight week, the Cubs used a stellar weekend to turn what was shaping up to be a frustrating stretch into a 4-3 week; they're now 7-3 in their last 10 overall. After unloading for 25 runs last weekend against the Brewers, the Cubs put up 28 runs this weekend and came back to take three of four from the Diamondbacks. They're back to .500 and will try for the fifth time to get over the hump when they head to Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Ryno of the Week: These offensive outbursts are making it hard to choose--the Cubs are now fifth in the NL in runs scored and tied for fourth in OBP. Byrd continued to torch opposing pitchers this week, piling up 11 hits. Ryan Theriot had four multi-hit games this week and has a 12-game hitting streak overall. Kosuke Fukudome's solid week has him in the top ten in the NL in batting average, OBP and OPS. In fact, Byrd, Theriot and Fukudome are all in the top 10 in the NL in batting with Soriano close behind at 14th.

And it's Alfonso Soriano who gets the nod this week. He was 8-for-20 with six of those hits going for extra bases, including four home runs. One of his long balls gave the Cubs the lead and another tied the score in a game they eventually won. He also drove in 10, scored seven times, and drew four walks throughout the week. He consistently displayed patience as he watched sliders off the outside corner go by, waited for a hitter's pitch, and drilled it. He's in one of those zones we got used to back in 2008, and boy is it fun to watch.

Honorable mention: Tom Gorzelanny

Goat of the Week: It pains me to do this for the second week in a row, but Aramis Ramirez was just 5-for-25 (four singles and a double) and continued to be a virtual black hole in the middle of the Cubs' lineup. The highest his average got all week was .159. His current .156 average is the lowest in the NL by 24 points and higher than only Travis Snyder and Nick Johnson in the majors. Which is, you know, not good.

Dishonorable mention: Derrek Lee

Tom Gorzelanny wondering what a guy's gotta do to get some runs over here

The Cubs have yet to win a game started by Tom Gorzelanny, but he deserves very little of the blame for this unfortunate trend--the Cubs have scored two, three, one and one run(s), respectively, in those games while Gorzelanny has posted a 2.45 ERA.

Though Gorzo allowed two runs last night almost before the pregame show was complete, he settled down after the first and notched a (everybody together now) quality start. He came just one out away from a QS his last time out (and would have had one were it not for an error by Mike Fontenot), and was knocked out, literally, of his previous start after three innings. Those two starts represent the only games in the last 12 in which the Cubs starter did not post a quality start. In fact, don't look now, but the Cubs have the sixth-best ERA in the National League. And yes, that includes the bullpen!

But Livan Hernandez, whose season has started as inexplicably well as Carlos Silva's, shut down the Cubs with his 85 mph fastballs and grab bag of random pitches that have no business working in the major leagues. The end result was one measly unearned run for the Cubs, giving Gorzelanny another loss and bringing the Cubs' record to 0-4 when he has taken the mound.

Hernandez lulled the Cubs offense to sleep even though they should have been energized by the opportunity to climb over .500. It was the fourth time this season the Cubs have had a chance to get their heads above water, but now they'll look to Ryan Dempster on Wednesday as they attempt to even their record at 11-11.

Though Aramis Ramirez was just 1-for-4 with a single, I think he's about to break out of it. He had a line drive single on Sunday as well as a hard line out to center. On Monday, he smoked a double in the first inning and later hit what would have been a home run on most days. And along with his single last night, he drove a ball to the warning track in center. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I think Ramirez is almost there.

Week three awards

Baseball can be a funny game. The Cubs were yet to have a winning week (2-4 in Week 1, 3-3 in Week 2), and, through Thursday, were 1-3 this week after barely being competitive against a Mets team that had been struggling. The Cubs then headed to Milwaukee to take on a Brewers team that had absolutely obliterated the Pirates in their previous series. Three dominant games later, the Cubs have their first three-game winning streak of the season, their first winning week (4-3), and have scored more runs than their opponents for the first time.

Ryno of the Week: Randy Wells put together two strong starts, but this week's award has to go to a hitter--several Cubs put up video game numbers over the last seven days. First, I thought: "It's got to go to Soto--he reached base 64 percent of the times he came to the plate!" But then I realized Marlon Byrd had 13 hits last week along with six runs scored and four RBI, despite the fact that he didn't even play yesterday.

But Ryan Theriot did him one better, literally. He had 14 hits, scored five runs and drove in six, capping his week with a 5-for-6 day that raised his average over 40 points.

Honorable mention: Alfonso Soriano

Goat of the Week: When it comes to the Cubs, I think the thing I want to see most right now is Aramis Ramirez bust out of his slump. It's painful to watch. He was 2-for-25 this week with seven strikeouts. It's really weird to see him swing and miss at 85 mph fastballs over the middle, isn't it? Please break out of it, Aramis. I can't take it any more.

Dishonorable mentions: Jeff Baker, Xavier Nady

Cubs finally find the road to victory

The Cubs scored just 319 runs on the road last year (compared to 388 at home), more than only Houston, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Every time they were in a park other than Wrigley, it seemed to be as difficult for them to score one run as it was for Frodo to trek to Mordor and destroy the ring. YOU SHALL NOT PASS ... third base. The offense constantly looked uncomfortable on the road. Or uninterested. Or unable. Definitely un-something.

Unfortunately, this trend has continued here at the beginning of the 2010 season. Nineteen runs in the first eight road games. One run combined in two games started by Jonathon Niese and Mike Pelfrey, respectively, to begin this series with the Mets. A road batting average (.195) that makes you wish Mario Mendoza was on the roster.

In fact, the Cubs had yet to score more than five runs in any road game this season. That is, until Wednesday. They finally broke out the bats, scoring nine runs by banging out 14 hits and drawing nine walks. Alfonso Soriano was 3-for-4 with a home run and came just a double shy of the cycle. He appears to be in one of his patented hot streaks--he has 13 hits in his last 28 at-bats.

On the mound, Carlos Silva continued his rather unbelievable early season success, allowing just two hits and one run in six efficient innings. There's no need to get carried away and assume Silva's name will be etched on the Cy Young Award when the season concludes, but it is worth stepping back and enjoying the apparent resurgence of a player the Mariners dumped in exchange for a guy who can't seem to count outs, and when he does, does so with his middle finger. Silva is now 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA, the latter being good for sixth in the majors. Pretty amazing, even if it is only three starts.

But Wednesday's game wasn't all positive. While I know he's the one guy we all just know is going to break out of it eventually, I'm going to allow myself a bit of worry about Aramis Ramirez. I'm honestly not sure that I've ever seen him look this bad. Normally a disciplined hitter, he has struck out in 20 of his 67 plate appearances and walked just five times. He has exactly one multi-hit game, way back on Opening Day. The Cubs' offense has had a lot of problems this year, but Ramirez's .194 OBP has to be at the top of the list.

But enough of that. The Cubs got a nice win and will look for the series split against (gulp) Johan Santana tonight. It will be a match-up of lefties with Tom Gorzelanny going for the Cubs.

2010 Cubs preview: Third Base

On June 20, 2008, Ramirez hit a game-winning home run off Scott Linebrink to lead the Cubs to a 4-3 victory over the White Sox. I watched it with Trevor Sierra and Andrew Kapral from the Cask 'n Flagon across the street from Fenway Park. Unfortunately, we didn't see enough of this last year due to Ramirez's shoulder injury.

On paper, this would seem to be the easiest position to predict. Since Aramis Ramirez joined the Cubs in 2003, you could pen him in (pen, not pencil) for about 30 home runs:

2003: 27
2004: 36
2005: 31
2006: 38
2007: 26
2008: 27

You also knew he'd be right around the 100 RBI mark:

2003: 106
2004: 103
2005: 92
2006: 119
2007: 101
2008: 111

While Ramirez had just 15 HR and 65 RBI in 2009 due to a shoulder injury that limited him to almost exactly half the season (82 games), translating those stats into a full season's worth of at-bats calculates to 27 HR and 116 RBI. Yup, sounds like A-Ram.

And let us not forget that the man can hit for average as well. Though he hit just .272 between the Pirates and Cubs in 2003, his lowest average since then was .289 in 2008. He topped the .300 mark in 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2009, reaching a high-water mark of .318 in 2004.

In short, Ramirez is the biggest key to success for the Cubs' offense. It's no coincidence that the Cubs scored 148 fewer runs in 2009 than in 2008 given that Ramirez had just over 300 at-bats last year. He opted not to have shoulder surgery in the offseason--let's hope he can remain healthy all year.

It's sort of a contract year for Ramirez. I say "sort of" because he has a player option for next year at $14.6 million (he'll be 32 years old at the end of the season, by the way). If he has a productive year, he can test the free agent market or at least try to force the Cubs to ante up with a longer contract. If he struggles, he would likely exercise the option. While he's not in the same situation as Derrek Lee, he still has plenty of incentive to have a strong year. I think he's hungry to once again put up the numbers he's accustomed to: .305 avg., 29 HR, 114 RBI.

What's on deck for the Cubs?

There are still home runs to be hit, strikes to be thrown, and rings to be won.

Just not at Wrigley Field.

For the Cubs, the sights are now squarely set on 2010. This season reminded many Cubs fans of the Cubs of old, and in fact many of the Cubs are getting old. But it's in with the new as owner Tom Ricketts takes over the controls, though he and Jim Hendry don't have a great deal of wiggle room given the big, backloaded contracts Hendry has passed out like candy corn over the last few years.

So where do the Cubs go from here? First, there are the free agents: Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and John Grabow.

There's no doubt Harden will test the free agent waters. I've said before that he's not worth big money and multiple years, but it's possible he won't find a suitor willing to give him either one. He's worth a mid-level, one-year deal. I think we all know that Hendry took white out to Gregg's name in the media guide right around mid-August. I would definitely welcome back Reed Johnson, who was of course hurt in 2009 but plays hard and is a solid platoon player or starter if need be. And Hendry's already working on a two-year deal for Grabow, who had success in his 30 games with the Cubs this year.

You can already fill out a good deal of the 2010 depth chart in pen:

• Soto isn't going anywhere, but needs to show up in 2008 shape so he can get back to 2008 form.
  
• Lee and Ramirez are set at the corners.
  
• Theriot seems a safe bet to be at short.
• Fukudome figures to be in center or right.
• Soriano's contract is unmoveable, so you can write his name in the spot marked "LF" (please let his bum knee be the reason he flailed away at the plate like a Little Leaguer and played left field like a Little Leaguer who's only on the team because his dad's the coach).

So second base and right field/center field are on Hendry's to-do list. With little payroll flexibility and what would seem to be an offense bound for a rebound, I still like the idea of Andres Blanco getting a shot at second. He would bat eighth and likely provide little pop, but he's the best defender on the Cubs' 40-man roster and it's always important to have good glove work up the middle. Free agent options include Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Again, I'd prefer the Cubs stay in-house at 2B.

Suggesting that there's a question mark in the outfield of course assumes that Hendry is able to pull off an offseason magic trick worthy of a show on the Vegas strip: unloading Milton Bradley and the $21 million remaining on his contract. But even though Hendry is behind the 8 ball and every GM in baseball knows it, he's also handcuffed and has almost no choice but to ship him out.

If Hendry hopes to make an upgrade somewhere, outfield would seem to be the place to do it. The free agent class in center includes Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli and Corey Patterson (kidding). In right, you've got Bobby Abreu, Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns (if his option is not picked up), and others.

If the Cubs choose instead to spend their money on a second baseman and/or bullpen help, there are in-house options in the outfield: Reed Johnson in center and Fukudome in right is one of them. Jake Fox is another option in right, perhaps in a platoon with Fukudome. Will Fox hurt the team with his glove? Most likely. But Bradley was no stud himself, and we all saw Soriano bumble his way around left, so how much of a drop-off would it really be?

With the chatter about Zambrano hitting the trade block cooling down, the rotation would figure to be Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and either Marshall, Gorzelanny or Samardzija (my money would
be on Gorzelanny).

And last, but definitely not least, the bullpen. Carlos Marmol will be the closer, having finished the season with 12 consecutive saves. Gorzelanny and Guzman should be the G-Men in the setup role. Aaron Heilman is (unfortunately) likely to be in the mix as well, along with Marshall and Samardzija (or Gorzelanny). Other unprovens will have the opportunity to make the squad, including Justin Berg (12 IP, 1 BB, 0.75 ERA), Esmailin Caridad (19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA), and Jeff Stevens (bad).

As always, the free agent market provides an array of options, including Chad Cordero, Danys Baez, Joe Beimel and Darren Oliver (the last two being lefties). Signing relievers will always and forever be a complete crapshoot (see: Brad Lidge in '08 vs. '09, or B.J. Ryan, or Ryan Franklin coming out of nowhere).

Hendry doesn't have much choice but to bring back a near mirror image of the 2009 team. But it's reasonable to assume it will be one of those goofy, distorted mirror images. Zambrano with just nine wins? Soriano with only 55 RBI? Ramirez missing half the season?

You can accuse me of being overly optimistic, but I think the Cubs have a very good chance of turning things around without turning the roster over. The fact is, there's over $130 million of talent in their dugout, and a whole slew of players fell so far below their career averages in 2009 that, well, their career averages now look nothing like they did heading into the season. In this case, what comes down must go up.

The off-field action will all go down starting in just about a month. Players can declare free agency starting 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series, and Hendry's real work will begin at that time. Hopefully his work will lead to Cubs fans enjoying playoff baseball one year from today instead of looking forward to 2011.

Should I stay or should I go? The Jim Hendry version

Jim Hendry is under contract for three more years, but you'd never know it with all the recent chatter about his potential ousting. Having made more bad moves in the offseason than did Tom DeLay on "Dancing with the Stars," his future is filled with more question marks than a Spanish exam. The Trib's Rick Morrissey says he deserves another shot; the Sun-Times says the Milton Bradley signing may have sealed his fate.

There's no doubt this past offseason was a bust. From The Useless One (Joey Gathright) and The Awful One (Aaron Miles) to the trade of Mark DeRosa and the signing of Milton Bradley, Hendry turned a great, 97-win team into a slightly above average, 83-win team. It was a huge disappointment, no doubt, though they did finish five games over .500 and second in the NL Central. It was nice to see them on the right side of .500 for the third consecutive season, but with a $134 million payroll, that wasn't exactly the goal.

The decline wasn't all Hendry's fault: there were injuries, including those to Ramirez, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly and others. There were unexpectedly subpar seasons, including those by Soriano and Soto.

But Hendry does deserve the lion's share of the blame, having built a team unprepared to weather these storms. He removed leadership by trading DeRosa and letting Kerry Wood walk (though I'm still okay with the latter). He failed to build a reliable bullpen. He has now spent $78 million on average/terrible left-handed right fielders over the last two years.

The Cubs' team ERA actually improved slightly from last year, down to 3.84 from 3.87. And on defense, they committed six more errors this year versus last. But the big problem (if you hadn't yet figured this out after 161 games) was the offense: 707 runs this year after leading the league with 855 last season.

In the general managing world, Hendry didn't just strike out on 2009, he got the golden sombrero. But just as a player or manager can't be judged by one season alone, neither can a general manager. I think it's only fair that new owner Tom Ricketts look at Hendry's entire resume before deciding his fate. At the moment, Hendry's name is synonymous with Milton Bradley's, but that doesn't tell the entire story.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled a detailed history of Jim Hendry's moves as Cubs GM. It was posted last July, so it doesn't include the debacle of this past offseason, but it's interesting to look at the many moves he has made since Andy MacPhail promoted him seven years ago.

Can you recall Hendry's first move as Cubs GM? Of course you can: he traded Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen. Who could forget that? But wait. That trade wasn't as insignificant as it sounds. Less than five months later, Hendry traded Hermansen and Todd Hundley for Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros, a move that helped lead to a division title for the Cubs. It was also the first sign that Jim Hendry might be a direct descendant of King Midas. This is the kind of rabbit Hendry will need to pull out of his hat when it comes to unloading Milton Bradley.

But it was 2003's trade deadline fleecing of Pirates GM Dave Littlefield that really ignited a love affair between Hendry and Cubs fans: Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and Bobby Hill for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, and cash! Littlefield then gave the Cubs Randall "Sausage Beater" Simon a few weeks later (that nickname sounds dirty, but in case you've forgotten the incident that begot such a nickname, please click the link).

In an attempt to out-GM himself, Hendry pulled off a Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee trade in the 2003 offseason. He also got Michael Barrett for Damian Miller and traded for Nomar at the 2004 deadline, and the Cubs won 89 games that year, though they choked away a playoff spot in the final week of the season.

Hendry has other good moves he can point to, such as trading Sammy Sosa after he turned his back on the Cubs (and integrity), and getting rid of Michael Barrett at the right time. He also made mistakes beyond those of this past offseason, such as giving up three young pitchers for Juan Pierre and giving away Greg Maddux for Cesar "♪ You can ring my be-e-ell, You can ring my bell ♪ " Izturis.

Those are the specifics, here's the bottom line: Hendry has produced three NL Central titles in his seven years at the helm. The Cubs hadn't seen that kind of consistent success since 1938 when they accomplished the exact same feat. In fact, the Cubs have made the playoffs just 16 times in their long history, and Hendry has been behind the desk for three of them. The 182 wins in 2007 and 2008 were the most in back-to-back seasons for the Cubs since 1935-36. It's fine to lay the blame for 2009 at Hendry's feet, but you also have to give him some credit for the products he put on the field in the years prior.

Expectations-wise, 2009 was a disaster of a campaign for the Cubs. But the "W" flag still flew 83 times, and we've also seen some promise from young players such as Randy Wells, Jake Fox and Andres Blanco.

Hendry has created some serious work for whomever is in charge this offseason, but in my opinion, he's earned the chance to do that work himself. As Tom Ricketts takes over the helm, I hope he'll keep Jim Hendry on board.

Stop the presses

Friday: Cubs 6, Reds 4

With two clutch hits by Aramis Ramirez, a home run by Geovany Soto, and four shutout innings by Aaron Heilman, Esmailin Caridad and Carlos Marmol, the Cubs pulled to within 10.5 games of the Cardinals, who were denied their third 15-game winner as Joel Pineiro was outdueled by Jair Jurrjens in a 1-0 loss.

Why do I even take the time to mention how far back the Cubs are in the standings? Because while it took 39 days and 71 combined games, the Cubs finally gained ground on the Cardinals for the first time since August 3. If we keep up this pace, we'll catch 'em by 2012 for sure!

On the dangers of running

Quote of the Day

"I tried to catch the ball after I lost my balance, but I think the grass was too big."

-Alfonso Soriano

Having closely followed several sports for a couple decades, I've heard a lot of excuses. But grass being too big? That's definitely a new one. Never have I seen Soriano work harder than he apparently did in coming up with this reason for slipping and dropping a fly ball in Friday's loss to the White Sox.

Soriano will have arthroscopic knee surgery soon, and could be out for the rest of the season. Hallelujah!

If there's a silver lining in this terrible season, perhaps it's the fact that guys like Soriano, Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez have played a lot fewer innings than they normally would, and maybe this will help them come 2010. I didn't say it was a real great silver lining, but that's all I got.

Another preseason injury

Running back Kevin Jones is out for the season after injuring his ankle in the Bears' final preseason game. It's unfortunate that a guy the Bears signed to a two-year deal last offseason will miss the second of those two years. However, I'm a fan of Adrian Peterson, and this should significantly increase his chances of making the 53-man roster. Garrett Wolfe, a Northern Illinois alum, is the other option.

Soriano, no, no, yes!

Friday: Cubs 5, Nationals 2

The three fingers represent the number of runs he drove in with his game-winning home run, as well as the number of fielding miscues he had in the game.

The Cubs are 10th in the National League in runs scored, but it doesn't feel like they should even be that high, does it? They're 13th in batting average, but have used the long ball to help their cause--they've hit the fourth most home runs in the league, though it feels like they should be lower in that one too. Several key players have seen their home run tallies drop significantly from '08:

Player-----2008--2009

Ramirez----27-----11
Soriano-----29-----20
Soto---------23------9

The Cubs also had 17 HR from the second base position last year, but have just seven this year. But with 137 home runs, the Cubs are on pace to hit just eight fewer home runs in '09 compared to '08.

Nevertheless, a precipitous decline in batting average, walks, on-base percentage, and a host of other offensive statistics has them in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and reveals why Cubs pitchers lead the league in batting average--because they know the only way they're going to get any run support is if they do it themselves.

On Friday, Ted Lilly was taking his fourth shot at his 10th win, and while he pitched well enough to get it, the offense managed just one first-inning run by the time Lilly had left the game in the eighth inning. When the Mets went up 2-1 in that inning, it looked like another lackluster offensive performance would do the Cubs in.

But the Cubs got Lilly off the hook for the loss when Bradley--who was on base after banging out his third hit of the game--scored on Ramirez's single through a drawn-in infield. After a walk to Jeff Baker, Soriano did the one thing the Cubs do well, launching a three-run homer to become the second Cub to reach the 20 home run plateau this year (aside: the Yankees have six players with 20 or more home runs). It was Soriano's first home run in August.

So while the Cubs will have to wait at least a few more days to get a pitcher into double digits in wins, they at least managed to beat a Mets team with guys like Angel Pagan, Fernando Tatis, Omir Santos, Cory Sullivan, Wilson Valdez, and starting pitcher Pat Misch ("Who?" "Misch." "Oooooh," as the routine between the PA announcer and the crowd used to go at Kenosha Twins games) in their starting lineup.

Lee, Ramirez and Soriano combined to go 6-for-11 with all five RBI in the game. Bradley was the only other player with any hits in the contest, notching two doubles along with a single, though he was booed after miscommunicating with Jeff Baker and dropping a fly ball.

On the mound, Ted Lilly continued to look comfortable since coming off the DL, Kevin Gregg got the win despite allowing the game-tying hit (though the run was charged to Lilly, and Soriano probably should have caught the long fly ball that resulted in said run, just one of several fielding miscues for Soriano in the game), and Carlos Marmol walked the leadoff man in the ninth but retired the next three batters to record his sixth save.

The Cardinals are now 20 games over .500 after Khalil Greene tied the game in the eighth with his first career pinch-hit home run and then Albert Pujols unloaded off Jason Bergmann in the ninth, hitting a tape measure, walk-off home run to beat the Nationals. The Cubs remain nine games back.

Like Brett Favre coming out of retirement, it was only a matter of time until ...

Bears nose tackle Dusty Dvoracek suffered a season-ending injury. For the fourth time in his four-year career, Dvoracek will be placed on injured reserve, this time with a torn right ACL. Dvoracek's injury turns a three-man race into a two-man race between Anthony Adams and Marcus Harrison.

A position battle on the same side of the ball has been decided, as Pisa Tinoisamoa (whose name might just be harder to spell than Jeff Samardzija's) will be the starting strongside linebacker alongside Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Tinoisamoa, who was released by the Rams last season despite leading the team in tackles, was battling Nick Roach, Jamar Williams, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Hillenmeyer.

It's a good thing he won the battle given that he's the starter on the already-released Madden 10.

Wells deserves better, Cubs can't get much worse

Friday: Dodgers 2, Cubs 1


An error by the sure-handed Ramirez and a two-run double by a career .185 hitter.

That pretty much sums up Friday's performance, at least when you add in the fact that the Cubs tallied one--uno, un, unus, eins--hit on the night. The Cardinals and Rockies lost, but they needn't look in the rearview mirror for the Cubs, for they are now 1-4 on this all-important West Coast road trip and appear to have no interest in working their way back into the thick of the playoff race.

On the bright side, Randy Wells lowered his ERA to 2.84, Sam Fuld stole a home run from Manny Ramirez, and Carlos Marmol pitched a scoreless inning (thanks in part to Fuld's catch).

Despite pitching 6 2/3 innings and allowing no earned runs (two runs total), Wells' record dropped to 9-6 because of the minimal support provided by the offense. Here's hoping J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson stumble in their next outings as we root for Wells in the Rookie of the Year race.

Today's game should be interesting, with Ted Lilly making his second start since coming off the DL and knuckleballer Charlie Haeger taking the mound for the Dodgers. The Cubs have two more chances to right the ship on the road before coming home for a 10-game homestand.

Did you know ...

Mark Reynolds is just one home run off the NL-leading pace of Albert Pujols (Phat Albert has 39). However, Pujols has struck out just 51 times compared to Reynolds's 169.

Adam Wainwright and Jason Marquis are tied for the NL lead in wins (14).

Zach Greinke leads the AL in ERA (2.44), but is just 3-7 since May 31.

Gregg gets stung, then demoted

Monday: Padres 4, Cubs 1


That one hurts. The Cubs are now six games behind the Cardinals and failed to take advantage of an opportunity to gain a 1/2 game in the Wild Card race with a horrific loss to the third worst team in the National League.

Until the 9th inning, the story was the return of both Ted Lilly and Aramis Ramirez.

We hadn't seen Lilly in nearly a month, when he allowed 10 runs in Philadelphia on July 20. Before that, he had three consecutive strong starts. He pitched well last night, giving the Cubs six scoreless innings despite being on an 85-90 pitch count. With only 70 pitches thrown, I'm not sure why Piniella took him down for a pinch-hitter given how well he was pitching. I know the bullpen was at full strength after the rainout on Sunday, but I'd rather see Lilly go one more inning than see three innings from our bullpen.

And while Aramis singled in a pinch-hit appearance on Saturday, he hadn't started since August 8 at Colorado when he left with shoulder soreness. Last night, he had two of the Cubs' seven hits
and drove in their only run.

And that run looked like it would hold up, but Kevin Gregg allowed a walk, a double, an intentional walk and a three -run homer, blowing his sixth save of the season. Ouch. And it sounds like Gregg is now out as the Cubs' closer. I don't think that's necessarily a terrible move given Gregg's recent struggles, but I don't think we should trot Marmol out there every game.

The Padres, by the way, are the only non-NL Central team the Cubs face three times this season. The Cubs swept them at home and got swept at Petco earlier in the season; let's hope a third sweep is not in the works.

While Gregg is the main culprit, you also have to look at an offense that once again looked completely disinterested in scoring any runs on the road. The Cubs had a grand total of two extra base hits, and gave Lilly and the 'pen just one measly run to work with.

Heading into the game, the 6-7-8-9 hitters in the Cubs lineup (Fontenot, Soto, Miles, Lilly) were batting .227, .225, .185 and .073, respectively. Shockingly, they combined to go 0-for-13, and they also left 10 men on base. Aaron Miles is 1-for-20 since coming off the DL. I would be happy if the Cubs traded him for a bag of peanuts. I don't even care if they're unsalted peanuts. Expired, even.

When Carlos Zambrano returns next Tuesday, the Cubs will essentially be back at full strength. Let's hope it's not too late.

Strasburg signs at the last minute

The Nationals came within minutes of failing to sign their top draft pick for the second straight year.

Because Stephen Strasburg is represented by super (evil) agent Scott Boras, baseball's top draft pick nearly remained unsigned at the signing deadline. He scoffed at $12.5 million, asking for multiple times that. But ultimately, he signed for about $15 million. That breaks the record for a draft pick's contract, formerly held by Mark Prior. It would have been a damned shame if a player who has not yet played a single major league game walked away from an eight-figure contract despite the fact that it would have been nearly impossible to improve upon the college numbers he put up last year at San Diego State.

Rookie of the Year Watch

J.A. Happ won his ninth game for the Phillies Sunday night, matching Randy Wells' win total. Tommy Hanson beat the Diamondbacks last night, moving his record to 8-2.