As predicted, we predicted terribly

You might recall that Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I made our annual Cubs predictions last March. We predicted seven categories total; in five of them, all three predictions turned out to be higher than the actual result. So either the Cubs had a pathetic season in which they underperformed to an extreme degree, or all three of us are blindly optimistic fools with zero talent for predicting what will occur in a Cubs season. Or both. You know what, I think it's both.

Last year, Trevor and Andrew tied with three apiece while I had two.

*Actual result in parentheses

Cubs wins (75)

Trevor 88
Andrew 87
Brandon 86

Um ... yay? I don't feel good about benefiting from the Cubs' debacle of a season.

Had the Cubs won 86 games, the lowest of our three predictions, they would have lost the division by just three games and finished ahead of the Cardinals by two. Instead, they finished with the eighth-worst record in the majors. They were worse than teams such as the Astros, Brewers, Marlins and A's. They were even worse than the Mets. Not a great year.

Randy Wells wins (8)

Trevor 13
Brandon 11
Andrew 10

After winning 12 in his rookie season, Wells started five more games in 2010 but won only eight. His ERA went up by more than a point even though he actually gave up fewer hits/9 in 2010 compared to 2009. He was much less consistent this season--he had three starts of four innings or fewer.

Soto slugging percentage (.497)
Brandon .475
Andrew .445
Trevor .430

Here's the only category where we were all too pessimistic. Soto had a great bounce back season. While playing in only 105 games hurt his power numbers, his slash line was back to the level of his Rookie of the Year campaign. (Slash line is average/on-base/slugging.)

2008: .285/.364/.504

2010: .280/.393/.497

He also had a higher HR/AB ratio this season than in 2008. My win here puts me up 2-1 on Andrew.

Zambrano wins (11)
Trevor 20
Brandon 14
Andrew 14

Good guess, Trevor. No, really, I mean he averaged 11.5 wins over the previous two seasons and he's never won 20 in his life. As it turned out, Zambrano only started 20 games due to his time spent in the bullpen. 3-2 me over Andrew. (Trevor? You there?)

Derrek Lee HR (19)

Brandon 33
Trevor 33
Andrew 27

Ouch. If you don't count 2006 when he missed most of the season or 1999 when he only played 70 games, this was his lowest home run total since 1998. He also had his lowest average (.260) since 1998. His punishment? Being banished to the Orioles, where Cubs go to die.

By going low, Andrew's tied it at 3. This is dramatic ...

Carlos Marmol walks per 9 innings (6.0)
Brandon 6.4
Andrew 5.8
Trevor 5.1

This category was meant to be indicative of Marmol's season overall. As in: lots of walks per nine innings? He must be blowing lots of saves. Not many walks per nine innings? Wow, he must be doing well as the closer. Since I thought he was going to be a disaster as closer, I went high on this one. Turns out I lost to Andrew by just 0.2, yet Marmol had a great season. He was 38-for-43 in saves, had a 2.55 ERA and led the majors with a ridiculous 16 strikeouts per nine innings. He was in fact one of the few pieces of glitter on the turd that was the Cubs' season. And yet ... lots of walks. Oh well. You win this round, Andrew.

Theriot OBP (.321)
Andrew .380
Brandon .370
Trevor .365

And Trevor takes his first category despite being pretty far off on this one. A few players who had a higher OBP than Theriot in 2010:

Alfonso Soriano

Drew Stubbs

Ryan Ludwick

Yovani Gallardo

Dan Haren

Angel Pagan

Albert Pujols was walked intentionally 38 times in 2010. Theriot walked 41 times total. So anyways, Theriot is not good at getting on base. None of us realized that, but Trevor's guess sucked the least.

Final tally:

Andrew 4

Brandon 3

Trevor 1

Congratulations, Andrew! A tie for first last year and an outright victory this year. You are forcing me to slightly doubt my hypothesis that living in Texas for an extended period of time inevitably turns you into a babbling buffoon who wears spurs and eats your own poop. But only slightly.

Actual NL Central Standings

Reds

Cardinals

Brewers

Astros

Cubs

Pirates

Predicted
Brandon
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

Cardinal sin: Theriot now a redbird

Ryan Theriot is back in the NL Central. But instead of playing for the Cubs, he'll be playing for their biggest rival.

On Tuesday, the Cardinals acquired Theriot from the Dodgers in exchange for righthander Blake Hawksworth. Ken Rosenthal says the Cardinals view him as a shortstop, which is a rare act of stupidity on their part. The only position from which Theriot can easily throw to first is ... well, first; he should be a second baseman. Brendan Ryan is the Cards' shortstop but they might consider moving him to make room for Theriot.

I always hate to see a Cub head to St. Louis if for no other reason than they might pull a Lou Brock and suddenly be awesome. I liked Theriot as a person and would like to see him do well, but I pretty much have to root against him now that he wears red. I also have to root against him because he said he's "finally on the right side of the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry." A--hole.

It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals, who preach the importance of getting on base, can get Theriot to buy in; he had a .321 OBP last season.

Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot update

Dodgers fans are no doubt happy about the team's deadline trade with the Cubs, at least for now. Overall, the Dodgers are just 4-4 since they acquired Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot--certainly they'll have to do much better if they hope to catch the Giants or Padres--but the two former Cubs have performed well.

Theriot went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in his Dodgers debut, but is a respectable 8-for-27 (.296) in seven games since. He typically bats second in the lineup behind newly acquired Scott Podsednik.

Lilly has been even more impressive. In fact, he has nearly as many wins--two--with the Dodgers as he did with the Cubs--three. He went seven innings and allowed one run in a must-win game against the Padres, then pitched six innings and allowed three earned runs against the Nationals. He has yet to allow a walk and has struck out 11. Both of his starts have taken place at Dodger Stadium.

And just for the heck of it, Blake DeWitt's stats since joining the Cubs: 9-for-27 (.333), HR, 5 RBI, 4 runs, 2 BB

Analyzing the Cubs/Dodgers trade

Jim Hendry had to trade Ted Lilly, and he did. That Ryan Theriot was included in the deal with the Dodgers was a bit of a surprise, but not an altogether bad one. But was the move good or bad overall? How'd Hendry do?

First of all, no one will know the answer to that question for sure until several years from now. Analyzing trades at the time they happen, especially when prospects are involved, is always a guessing game. Ricky Nolasco was something of a throw-in in the trade for Juan Pierre, but he has 12 wins this year. On the other hand, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a key piece of the Mark Teixeira trade three years ago, yet he was still stuck in the Rangers' minor league system until he was traded to the Red Sox on Saturday (not because of struggles at the plate, but rather a mental block preventing him from consistently throwing the ball back to the pitcher accurately). So, you know, who knows?

But on the surface I'd say the trade was solid from Jim Hendry's standpoint. Let's break it into two parts:

1) Lilly for Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit

Once again, Lilly simply had to go. The Cubs would have gotten nothing for him had he left as a free agent at the end of the season, so it made sense to shop him around. While the Cubs had to pay a portion of his remaining salary, the trade netted two minor league pitchers. From Bleed Cubbie Blue:

While neither one is a Top Ten Prospect with either the Dodgers or us, both of them are potentially very useful players.

The bigger prospect of the two is Brett Wallach, the son of former major leaguer and current Albuquerque manager Tim Wallach. Wallach was a third-round pick last season for the Dodgers who throws a hard, 89-91 mph sinker. He's also got an above-average fastball, a good changeup and promising breaking ball. His biggest issue is that he hasn't been able to get the breaking pitches over the plate for strikes. He didn't concentrate on pitching until after he turned pro, so he's still raw. But like Chris Archer before him, the Cubs think that they can fix his control problems. His upside is probably a mid-rotation starter. I've also been told that the Cubs have had their eye on Wallach for some time now. I'm not saying he was the key to the deal or anything, but they do like him a lot.

The other pitcher is Kyle Smit, who was a fifth-round pick of the Dodgers in 2006. Smit struggled as a starting pitcher in their system for four seasons. This year they made him a reliever and he's thrived in that role. He's got a 5-3 record with a 2.49 ERA and six saves for Inland Empire in the Cal League, and if you know anything about the Cal League you know how tough it is to pitch there. He's got a 91-93 mph fastball and a hard curve. He's also been working on a splitter. Unlike Wallach, Smit throws strikes already: he's walked only ten batters in 53.2 innings this year. He was promoted to AA just before the trade, so I'd expect to see him start in Tennessee. His upside is probably middle-reliever, but potentially a good one.

Nothing fantastic, but two solid prospects. Given that the Diamondbacks didn't get any sure things for Dan Haren, it's understandable that Hendry couldn't get any studs in return for a (hard-luck) pitcher with just three wins. Given the Cubs' bullpen woes this season, they could use a couple more prospects in the system.

2) Theriot for Blake DeWitt

A swap of second basemen, though DeWitt has played third about as much as second in his career. DeWitt is definitely not a huge upgrade over Theriot, but the upsides are his age and his contract status.

Whereas Theriot is 30 and probably won't get much better than his career .287/.350/.362, DeWitt is just 24 and at least has the potential to improve upon his very similar-looking .277/.357/.381 slash line. DeWitt also hit double-digit home runs all five years he was in the minors. He probably won't ever hit for much power, but his OPS is over 70 points higher than Theriot's this season. From MLB Trade Rumors:

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein calls his the "prettiest swing you'll see never turned into results," calling DeWitt a "constant source of disappointment" for the Dodgers.

Well that's not great, but again, the potential seems to be there.

DeWitt's defensive Zone Rating (don't ask) is also significantly higher than Theriot's (3.8 compared to 2.9).

And while Theriot is already in his first year of arbitration and is only locked up through 2012, DeWitt is under team control through 2014, meaning the Cubs have found a cheap, long-term solution at second base and won't have to scour the free agent market this offseason. Given that DeWitt is a lefty, there may be a chance that Fontenot will get dealt after the season.

This trade certainly didn't blow anyone away, but it's nice to have a couple more arms in the minors and I have to appreciate Hendry's creativity as he found a way to not simply make the obvious trade, but to fill a future need (second base) in the process.

Week 15 awards: Cancel that shipment of new bats--these actually seem to be working now

It was a short week in the baseball world (and therefore a long week for fans). The Cubs were one Marmol-implosion away from a four-game sweep to begin the second half, and they've been a lot more fun to watch lately--they've scored 67 runs in their last 11 games. Even Roy Halladay had to bow down to the offensive juggernaut that is the Chicago Cubs. You are no match for our muscles and legendary hitting prowess, Roy.

Marlon Byrd may have had the best week of any Cub given the impact he had in the NL's first All-Star Game win in 14 years. And Joey Votto can freakin' suck it. Since when are the Cubs and Reds arch rivals? And it's the All-Star Game, Joey! I understand that fans have a tough time rooting for players they normally root against, but you really can't set that aside for a night and get into the spirit of things? Your team is in the playoff hunt and may need that home field advantage Byrd just earned you, you jackass. Your goal in the All-Star Game is to win the All-Star Game, and if Byrd helps you do that, you should feel free to congratulate him.

Ryno of the Week: This is hard, in a good way. (That's what she said.) Aramis Ramirez had five hits in the series and five RBI. Trevor Sierra, Brian Brennan and I were debating less than two weeks ago what Ramirez's average will be at season's end. He was in the .170s at the time, and we settled on .212 as the over/under. Eleven games later, he's up to .213.

Geovany Soto hit a home run to each side of the park in the series and had four hits overall. Soriano had a couple dingers and five hits. All four Cub starters posted a quality start.

But I'm going with Starlin Castro. He batted .600 in the series with two doubles, a triple and three runs scored, and also stole home.

Honorable mention: Randy Wells hasn't been the beneficiary of the Cubs' recent offensive improvement--they've scored just 11 runs in his last six starts. His last four have all been quality starts and his ERA has dropped nearly a point since late June.

Goat of the Week: Again, not easy. Even Ryan Theriot had three hits, but he was still just 3-for-17. Plus his overall .311 OBP just angers me.

Dishonorable mention: Carlos Marmol (though in Friday's appearance he was absolutely nasty in striking out Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard and Ben Francisco)

Cubs do the unthinkable (win a series)

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Before Thursday's walk-off win:

Last time the Cubs won a series: May 25-27 against the Dodgers

Last time the Cubs won back-to-back games: May 22-25

Last time the Cubs won in their last at-bat: May 27

I guess we should have enjoyed the hell out of that Dodgers series.

Through seven innings yesterday, the Cubs offense looked like the offense we've become resigned to watching this year. They wasted prime scoring opportunities in the first and second and opted not to create any more opportunities for the next five innings. Yes, Dallas Braden threw a complete game earlier this season, but he had been awful in the six starts since. Nevertheless, he held the Cubs to just one run on five hits through six.

But the Cubs were able to get to the A's bullpen, loading the bases against former Cub Michael Wuertz and tying the game on a sac fly by Xavier Nady. Nady's RBI came against closer Andrew Bailey who had to be replaced in the ninth because manager Bob Geren failed to make a double switch when replacing Wuertz. Somebody didn't study their NL rulebook ...

So Jerry Blevins had to come into the game, and the Cubs utilized the power of cheese--oops, I mean the power of the walk (I've got that giant noodle on the brain). Three straight free passes set up Fukudome's game-winner through a drawn-in defense, and the Cubs celebrated their third walk-off of the season.

It was nice to see Randy Wells go deep into the game for once. Here are his innings pitched in his last four starts:

0

5

5.1

5

But he went seven yesterday and allowed just two runs, bucking a couple negative trends--a 6.47 home ERA and a 7.01 daytime ERA this season. He didn't get the win because of the Cubs' late rally, but he dropped his ERA below five and started off what he called his "new season" in solid fashion.

Though Theriot drew one of those ninth-inning walks, he went 1-for-13 in the series. Whatever happened to that one guy, what's his name, uh ... Fonso ... no, um ... Fontenot! It's hard to remember given that he's started once since June 8. He's batting .293 on the year and deserves some starts at second in light of Theriot's struggles. I know the Cubs faced a lefty yesterday, and will today too, but in general, Lou needs to get Fontenot some at-bats.

Cubs "ace" throws up, throws well

AP photo

8-0, 2.93 ERA

Those, my friends, are the numbers of Carlos Silva. What are we supposed to make of this? What kind of twisted, incomprehensible world are we living in? Those numbers are more mysterious than the numbers from Lost. They don't make sense. They hurt my brain, but in a good way.

The Tribune reported that Silva was battling the stomach flu yesterday and was constantly trying to throw up between innings. He did so at one point, but his illness did nothing to prevent him from another great outing.

Here are a few more numbers for you, because I just can't help myself:

• Silva is owned in 84 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. Many people thought he wouldn't make the team, let alone most fantasy team owners' rosters. Eight-four percent is more than Derek Lowe, Raul Ibanez and Orlando Hudson.
• Silva now has eight quality starts this season; he had 11 the last two seasons combined.
• He has won six straight starts.
• He is not only effective, but efficient. He has only reached the 100-pitch mark twice all year, in each of his last two starts.
• His WHIP is 1.06, fifth in the NL and just slightly worse than that of Ubaldo Jimenez (0.93). Jimenez is the only NL pitcher with more wins than Silva.

Pat Hughes referred to Silva as the Cubs' ace during yesterday's radio broadcast. I'm freakin' out, man. The snozberries taste like snozberries.

By the way, I think this calls for a Milton Bradley update: he's hitting .212 with three home runs and 21 RBI.

The Cubs still managed to waste some prime scoring opportunities yesterday, but they piled up double-digit hits (10) for the third straight game and put up enough runs to get the win. Marlon Byrd is scorching hot right now with four straight multi-hit games, and it was nice to see Soto come up with a couple knocks.

Interesting factoid: Did you know that it is in fact within the rules of Major League Baseball for Ryan Theriot to draw a walk? No, seriously, I looked it up! And he proved it with two walks Monday, giving him 10 on the year. The Cubs drew six walks in all yesterday, which was nice to see since they are 13th in the league in that category.

One final note: it really seems like the bullpen might be rounding into form. I mentioned yesterday that they allowed just one earned run all of last week, and yesterday Jeff Stevens and Sean Marshall combined for two scoreless innings. At the moment, there's no one Lou could summon from the 'pen who would really worry me: Howry? Perfect as a Cub (though I do acknowledge that could change in a hurry). Stevens has a 0.00 ERA. Russell has a 2.70 ERA, 14 K and just 3 walks. Gorzelanny? Tough to know how he'll transition to relief, but he was solid as a starter. Cashner has looked great, and we know what Marshall and Marmol have done. I don't know how long this feeling will last, but it's nice not to pee my pants a little every time Lou comes out of the dugout.

Next up are the Brewers, against whom the Cubs are 5-1 this year. They'll have to face Gallardo tonight, but it will get easier after that with Randy Wolf (4.66 ERA) and Dave Bush (4.97) taking the mound.

Week eight awards: Meh

The Cubs kept their momentum by taking two of three against LA, but their mojo ran out at the hands of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Two one-run duds were sandwiched around yet another win by Carlos Silva, and the week ended with the Cubs in pretty much the same position they were in when the week started. That's been the team's tendency at home this season; their four homestands have looked like this:

3-3

4-3

4-4

3-3

They just can't seem to put together any type of streak at home, mostly because they can't score runs consistently. This was a bit of a strange week in that despite scoring just 16 runs in six games, the Cubs won three times by shutting out their opponents in each win. While Derrek Lee and Mike Fontenot heated up a bit, most of the hitters were ice cold. Averages from last week:

Byrd: .238

Fukudome: .222

Castro: .217

Soto: .214

Theriot: .160

Soriano: .111

It's hard for a team to get hot when two-thirds of the order is batting like ... well, like Aramis Ramirez. Perhaps it's time to see more of Tyler Colvin? Please? And perhaps it's well-past time to move Ramirez down in the order? Might I suggest 10th?

Ryno of the Week: Ted Lilly looked great and deserved a win when he helped the Cubs beat the Dodgers 1-0, but Carlos Silva edges him out because of this stellar in a very important game against the Cardinals: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K. His performance ultimately prevented a sweep, and Silva became the first Cubs starter to begin a season 7-0 since Ken Holtzman went 9-0 in 1967.

Honorable mentions: Derrek Lee, Mike Fontenot

Goat of the Week: The choices for this "award" on the offensive side were detailed above. John Grabow also threw his name in the hat by allowing five earned runs in two appearances, and then he was placed on the DL with what I believe is being called a "strained ability to pitch effectively in the major leagues." But overall, I have to go with Ryan Theriot who reached base in just 19 percent of his plate appearances and has a .313 OBP for the season. One could say his job is to "set the table," but instead, he's been getting up halfway through dinner and angrily knocking all the plates and glasses off the table.

Week six awards: "Why are they doing this to us?"

Despite a win to finish out the week, the Cubs lost two more series in the last seven days. They've won three series this year and lost nine. It's like people always say: just win one of out of every three and you'll be in good shape at the end of the season. No wait, that doesn't sound right.

The Cubs needed two nail-biter 4-3 victories to keep from getting swept in back-to-back series and to stave off an to 0-6 record against the Pirates this year, a team they lost to eight times the last two years combined. The 2-4 week leaves them six games under .500 with three teams ahead of them in the division. At the top of the heap is a team that wears red but not the one you'd expect: Dusty Baker's Reds. Incidentally, the Cubs have scored just three fewer runs than the Reds and have a better ERA. Either the Reds are over-performing, the Cubs are under-performing, or both.

Here's the other good news: though it may have felt like 50, the Cubs were outscored by only five runs in the last two series. They lost two one-run games and also a two-run decision as they failed to turn the corner offensively. While it's good they're not getting blown out, their tendency to lose pretty much every close game they play is immensely frustrating and the reason for the title of today's post. Why, Cubs? Why must you torture us?

They still have two more games at Wrigley to try to get momentum on their side before hitting the road again.

Ryno of the Week: Tom Gorzelanny went 1-for-2 at the plate, and he was pretty much the Cubs' offensive star. Okay, okay, Soriano did go 8-for-22 with five RBI, which ain't bad. But Sean Marshall gets the nod this week after he earned a hold and a win, playing an instrumental role in both of the Cubs' wins. The man quietly goes about his business every year--he has a 2.45 ERA and a miniscule 0.87 WHIP, which would be the lowest in the league if he had logged enough innings to qualify.

Honorable mention: Carlos Silva

Goat of the Week: Though I feel badly for him after he got plunked on the elbow and had to miss Sunday's game, Ryan Theriot was just 3-for-17 last week with no walks. He also had a chance to tie Saturday's game in the ninth inning, needing only a fly ball to do so. Instead, he struck out.

Dishonorable mention: Carlos Zambrano

Fun with statistics

jonestein.mlblogs.com/fantasy-baseball.jpg

• Starlin Castro had six RBI after three major league at-bats. The man he essentially replaced in the lineup, Mike Fontenot, had 71 at-bats before Castro's call-up. In those 71 at-bats, he had ... six RBI. Fontenot nearly doubled his season's RBI total in his 72nd at-bat of the season with a pinch-hit grand slam.
  
• Aramis Ramirez has the same number of strikeouts (31) as hits and runs combined (20 + 11 = 31). Ramirez also has a lower batting average (.159) than Ryan Dempster and a lower OBP than Carlos Silva who, prior to this year, had not played in the National League since 2003.
• Speaking of Silva, he has four quality starts this season; he had one all of last season (granted, he was injured for a significant portion of it). Silva has three wins on the season; he had five the last two seasons combined.
  
• Ryan Theriot had back-to-back games with two stolen bases on April 12 and April 14. He has stolen only two other bases this season.
• Marlon Byrd has 23 RBI this season. The man he essentially replaced, Milton Bradley, notched his 23rd RBI on July 25 of last year.
• Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez have combined for fewer hits than Tigers rookie Austin Jackson.
• Of the four Cubs starters with the most starts, Gorzelanny and Dempster have the best ERAs (2.83 and 3.44, respectively) but the fewest wins (1 and 2). Silva and Wells (3.50 and 4.57) have three wins each.
  

Week three awards

Baseball can be a funny game. The Cubs were yet to have a winning week (2-4 in Week 1, 3-3 in Week 2), and, through Thursday, were 1-3 this week after barely being competitive against a Mets team that had been struggling. The Cubs then headed to Milwaukee to take on a Brewers team that had absolutely obliterated the Pirates in their previous series. Three dominant games later, the Cubs have their first three-game winning streak of the season, their first winning week (4-3), and have scored more runs than their opponents for the first time.

Ryno of the Week: Randy Wells put together two strong starts, but this week's award has to go to a hitter--several Cubs put up video game numbers over the last seven days. First, I thought: "It's got to go to Soto--he reached base 64 percent of the times he came to the plate!" But then I realized Marlon Byrd had 13 hits last week along with six runs scored and four RBI, despite the fact that he didn't even play yesterday.

But Ryan Theriot did him one better, literally. He had 14 hits, scored five runs and drove in six, capping his week with a 5-for-6 day that raised his average over 40 points.

Honorable mention: Alfonso Soriano

Goat of the Week: When it comes to the Cubs, I think the thing I want to see most right now is Aramis Ramirez bust out of his slump. It's painful to watch. He was 2-for-25 this week with seven strikeouts. It's really weird to see him swing and miss at 85 mph fastballs over the middle, isn't it? Please break out of it, Aramis. I can't take it any more.

Dishonorable mentions: Jeff Baker, Xavier Nady

Rally caps a great day at Wrigley

AP Photo/Charles Cherney

While I'm stuck in "high of 65 degrees" Maryland, everyone back in Illinois has enjoyed unseasonably warm days in the 80s this week. And while it was slightly cooler at Wrigley--the game-time temp was a perfect 73--it must have been about as beautiful as it will ever be for a Cubs game in April. I've been to Opening Day games where the most popular vendors were selling hot chocolate and you could see more blankets in the stands than jerseys.

But the sun-splashed field wasn't the only sight for sore eyes; the action on said field was quite enjoyable as well. In the middle of the 8th, I thought to myself: "Many other teams could stage a rally in this situation. Why is it that it seems so impossible for the Cubs to do so?" The 2009 season conditioned me to expect pretty much any deficit to remain a deficit. But instead, the Cubs surprised me with a 2008-like rally, scoring four runs after the first two batters were retired. And I'll admit that I took some enjoyment from the fact that it all happened against LaTroy Hawkins.

Other positives of note:

• Ryan Theriot banged out four hits including a two-run single in the 8th inning. He also stole two bases for the second consecutive game.
• Tyler Colvin has now walked three times in the regular season after walking zero times this spring. Batting with two outs and runners at first and second in the 8th--a situation that could have easily brought out some over-aggression--Colvin drew a walk and eventually scored in the four-run inning.
• Kosuke Fukudome is off to another fast start: he knocked in the winning run and now has an OPS of 1.048 (.900+ is very good). Of course, we've seen this movie before. Will Fukudome be able to avoid the mid-season slump we've become accustomed to?
  
• Marlon Byrd made a great throw to nail a runner trying to go from first to third. (In contrast was Soriano's outfield play--he bobbled a ball to turn a double into a triple and later misplayed a ball off the wall.)
• Carlos Marmol has so far proved me wrong. His last two save opportunities have produced the following combined line: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 6 K. Six batters faced, six strikeouts. That'll do, Carlos, that'll do.

Randy Wells was cruising early in the game but lost his mojo when he walked pitcher Dave Bush with two down in the 5th. Newly recalled Jeff Gray had a rough 2010 debut, but got the win due to the Cubs' rally (Reason No. 64,507 that wins and losses are absurd statistics).

So the Cubs have their first series victory in the books. How about adding their first sweep with a win today?

2010 Cubs Preview: Shortstop

I hope we see a lot less of this uppercut swing in 2010.

There's a lot to discuss when it comes to the Cubs' shortstop position. Obviously Ryan Theriot will be the starting shortstop come April 5, so let's start with him. There are a few stats we need to explore:

Career HR prior to 2009: 7
HR in 2009: 7

2007 + 2008 strikeouts: 108
2009 strikeouts: 93

When Theriot shocked the Wrigley Field fans with a go-ahead grand slam against the Marlins on May 1 of last year, it seemed that he had found a new weapon. "This scrappy singles hitter can put a charge into one? This is great!"

But it wasn't. Theriot seemed to become addicted to the idea of trying to hit the long ball. This resulted in a very un-Theriot-like uppercut swing, way too many warning track fly balls, and a tendency to pull off the ball instead of staying inside of it and hitting the ball to the right side.

From a successful '08 season to a so-so '09 season, Theriot's average dropped from .307 to .284, his OBP dropped from .387 to .343, and his walks fell from 73 to 51. To put it mildly, I was ecstatic to hear Theriot say this:

"I had a stretch where I hit some out of the park last year, but that's not my job. I need to get on base and set the table for the big boys."

-From an AP story by Mike Nadel

Precisely. It was almost ridiculous how good Theriot was in 2008 at stroking the ball through the right side of the infield. It was ridiculous how rarely he did so in 2009. If Fukudome ends up being the main leadoff man, these types of hits will serve the Cubs well as Fukudome, a good base runner, will be able to go from first to third.

The second thing we need to talk about is the possibility that Theriot will be moved to second base if Starlin Castro is brought up at some point to play short. This wouldn't necessarily affect his offensive production, but it does obviously make a difference for the Cubs defensively. In my opinion, Theriot is the second-weakest link in the Cubs' defense, behind Soriano. While his range is decent (though not great), his arm is terrible. Though he seems to prefer playing short, I think the overall infield defense would be considerably stronger with him at second. So I wasn't ecstatic to read that he's quite defensive about his defensive position:

"Competition is good because it brings out the best in all of us. But to be quite honest with you, 'What have you [referring to Castro] done at the major league level?' Those expectations and that pressure, everybody deals with that differently. I think it takes a little bit more than just ability."

-AP story by Mike Nadel

When asked earlier in the spring about Castro possibly taking over at short, Theriot said, "He's going to have to come get it." Theriot did back off a bit in later comments:

"It would be wonderful to see a guy come up with those tools and use every single one of them. It could change my role, sure, but that's all right. My role's been changed quite a bit. The good news is, I've always had a role.

"Be a part of it. Contribute. Win. That's the ultimate goal of everybody here. You put your personal feelings aside and do what's best for the club."

Nice. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not proclaiming that Starlin Castro is the Cubs' savior, or that it's even close to a guarantee that he'll be a productive member of the Cubs' big league club this season. But if Castro proves capable and Piniella asks Theriot to move to second, I hope he would do exactly what he said--put his personal feelings aside and do what's best for the club. The Cubs are already very strong defensively at the corners. Having Castro and Theriot in the middle infield would give them one of the better defensive infields in the league.

Prediction: .296 avg, .385 OBP, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 65 K, 60 BB

Thoughts?

Marmol avoids arbitration, but will Theriot do the same?

MLB.com's Carrie Muskat shares with us that Carlos Marmol and the Cubs have settled on the midway point between his and the team's respective salary figures; Marmol will make $2.125 million this season.

Ryan Theriot is the only arbitration-eligible player remaining for the Cubs. While Hendry has never gone to arbitration--and no Cubs GM has done so since Larry Himes and Mark Grace duked it out in 1993--Bruce Miles feels that this streak is about to come to an end. Theriot, 30, made $500,000 last season but is asking for $3.4 million this year. The Cubs have offered $2.6 million.

Miles said on 670 The Score this weekend that Hendry has always been rather fair with arb-eligible players (or even overly generous, some might say), and that for Theriot to ask for his salary to multiply ninefold is something he won't stand for. Theriot, on the other hand, might have some lingering bad feelings from way back in 2006 when he was 26 years old but still stuck in Triple-A despite putting up solid numbers.

It is often bad blood that leads to arbitration in the first place, and its usually badder blood that results from the no holds barred meetings. Let's hope Hendry can keep the Cubs' long streak alive.

Keep in mind that if the case goes to arbitration, there's no middle ground--the arbitrator will decide on one of the two salary figures. Check out Miles' piece to get a sneak peek at what that meeting might look like.

Hat tip: MLB Trade Rumors

Dempster gets first win since July 2, Cubs hope for good news on Zambrano, Ramirez

Saturday: Cubs 6, Rockies 5


A strange win, but a big one.

Lou trotted out a brand new lineup, the Cubs made several defensive mistakes, and the Rockies had 11 hits, yet the Cubs got a big win to bring them back to 4-4 on the road trip.

I may have liked Saturday's lineup even more than Friday's. When I heard Fukudome was out of the leadoff spot, I was not happy. He has clearly made himself a nice home at the top of the order. However, the downside of batting Bradley second is that Theriot has to bat too far down in the order. Theriot can certainly hold his own in the leadoff spot, and if Fukudome can carry over his success to the five spot, then Lou can bide some time until Soto (hopefully) gets his swing going. Fukudome had a double and a home run, while Theriot had three singles, an RBI and a run scored.

And with a quality start from Ryan Dempster and three scoreless innings from the bullpen (including Marmol's best outing in a long time), the Cubs were able to remain one game behind the Cardinals. Bradley reached base two more times, Derrek Lee connected for his 23rd home run of the season, and even Aaron Miles connected for a triple and came around to score.

But still I ask: why oh why was Aaron Miles starting again? (Actually, I'll tell you: he was 6-for-16 against Marquis in his career.) If you ask me, he shouldn't even be on the roster, but for goodness' sake, at least stop trotting him out there as part of the starting lineup. There is absolutely no reason why Andres Blanco, who was batting 40 points higher than Miles and is 10 times the fielder (he may be the best fielder the Cubs have had all year), is in the minors while Miles is wasting space on the Cubs roster.

Speaking of who is and isn't on the roster, Carlos Zambrano was placed on the DL for the second time this season due to back spasms. Reliever Jeff Stevens was recalled to replace him. Because he hasn't pitched since Aug. 1, Zambrano will be eligible to return next Monday, Aug. 17. It sounds like Jeff Samardzija will start in his place on Wednesday against the Phillies. With John Grabow now in the bullpen, I would prefer Marshall to get the start, but on the bright side, Samardzija won't be coming on in relief over the next few days!

On top of Zambrano's injury, the injury bug bit the Cubs yet again, as Aramis Ramirez appeared to tweak his shoulder early in the game, and left in the 5th. Hopefully he'll be okay, but we'll at least see Jake Fox at the hot corner today, if not for a few days.

The Cubs have the third worst fielding percentage in the National League this year, and their glovework was perhaps the main reason Saturday's game was so close. In the 4th inning, the Cubs infield did their best impression of the Washington Generals.

First, Theriot was unable to grab a grounder up the middle that would have resulted in at least one out, if not two. On the very next play, Ramirez booted an easy double play grounder, and the stage was set for a big Rockies inning. One was inclined to feel bad for Ryan Dempster, but then he failed to cover first base on what could have been a double play later in the inning. Good ol' Aaron Miles then ran away from second base after Soto threw to second on a wild pitch, conceding the base as he looked to see if the runner at third was going to break for home (he didn't). That's FIVE extra outs the Cubs gave the Rockies in one inning.

All muscle, no hustle

Piniella needs to start benching or fining guys for a lack of effort. That may sound old school or overreactive, but the fact is, the Cubs may put out less effort than any team in baseball. The lineup is loaded with primadonnas who can't bring themselves to run hard when they put the ball in play. Soriano turned a double into a single on Friday, and Bradley came within a split-second of costing the Cubs a run when he decided to admire a ball he hit instead of running hard. He was tagged out at second for the third out just after Theriot crossed the plate with the go-ahead run. I don't care who you are or how much you make, RUN! This isn't football or soccer--you really don't have to run full speed all that often. Props to Bob Brenly for voicing a similar position during last night's broadcast.

Remember him?

Jason Dubois was traded to the Mets Friday, and was assigned to the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. He played 72 games for the Cubs between 2004 and 2005, batting .236 with eight home runs and 27 RBI.

Zambrano scratched, Cubs overmatched

Friday: Rockies 6, Cubs 2


It was a day of bad news for the Cubs.

First, the Cardinals came back to beat the Pirates 6-4.

Then, Carlos Zambrano was scratched from his start when his back stiffened up while playing long toss before the game. How he made it five days--including a bullpen session--without any trouble, only to be scratched minutes before his start is beyond me. We'll see if Zambrano will be placed on the DL for the second time this season. Because his last start was August 1, he would already be halfway done with his DL stint if they make it retroactive.

Sean Marshall stepped in on (very) short notice, but showed why his career ERA is 2 1/2 points higher as a starter than as a reliever. He needed over 60 pitches to get through two innings, allowing three runs in his short outing. The Cubs may need to make a roster move this weekend, as four relievers were forced to throw all eight innings in the first of four games at hitter friendly Coors Field.

Let's get to the lineup changes: though the Cubs only tallied two runs on Friday, I like Bradley batting second. When the Cubs signed him, they thought they were getting an on-base guy with some pop in his bat. But so far, he's only lived up to the first part of that reputation. Despite a .252 average, he's got a .394 OBP, better than that of Adrian Gonzalez, Raul Ibanez and Ryan Braun (and nearly 50 points higher than Ryan Theriot's as well). For that reason, he's much better-suited for the two-hole, where he can get on base for Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano.

However, I'm not sure why Theriot was dropped all the way to eighth. He's hitting 60 points higher than Fontenot, and has the highest average on the team. It's a waste of his ability to have him right in front of the pitcher where he won't see many pitches to hit. I'd prefer to see Theriot seventh and Fontenot behind him.

The Cubs have started a lot of positive trends in the second half, but here's a negative one that they need to buck: they're now 2-5 against teams above .500.

We Hart-ly knew ye

Thursday: Cubs 12, Astros 3


Kevin Hart had a good start and a strange finish. His start (6 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) netted him his third straight victory, but his Cubs career was finished shortly thereafter, as he was traded to the Pirates after the game. Hart, along with Jose Ascanio and Single-A third baseman Josh Harrison, were shipped to one of Hendry's favorite trading partners for lefty reliever John Grabow and lefty starter Tom Gorzelanny.

It was a good pick-up for the Cubs, who will now have two lefties in the pen once Lilly returns from the DL. Marshall will presumably return to the rotation for now given that Hart was involved in the trade.

Grabow had the third-lowest ERA among NL left-handed relievers last year, and was the Jewish Pitcher of the Year (seriously). 2008 and 2009 have been the best years of his career. He has control issues at times, as he's walked 28 men in 47.1 innings, and he's actually better against righties (.234 average against) than lefties (.275).

Gorzelanny, 27, was 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 2007, but has struggled since and finds himself in the minors this year.

The trade seems pretty fair on paper: Hart could turn into a back-end starter, Gorzelanny already proved he has the potential to contribute at the major league level, but hasn't harnessed his talent consistently; the Cubs get the lefty they need and give up a serviceable arm in Ascanio; and the Pirates get a Single-A OBP guy.

The trade makes the Cubs bullpen--which has been very strong of late--even stronger, improves the rotation slightly while Lilly is out, and gives them a lefty with the potential to be a mid-rotation starter in a year or two.

The Cubs' second consecutive pounding of the Astros puts them a season-high eight games over .500. The offense feasted on Houston pitching once again, putting up double-digit runs in back-to-back games for the first time since ... well, not that long ago, actually: August 25-26 of last year in Pittsburgh, when they won 12-3 and 14-9. The bats looked so good Thursday, they knocked Russ Ortiz right out of the Astros organization--he was released after the game.

The lineup seems to have a different hero every day, and Thursday it was Fukudome: a single, a double, a triple and two walks, along with four RBI and two runs. Theriot also drove in four runs, and Derrek Lee was the only starter (including Kevin Hart) who didn't record at least one hit. Fox and Bradley added long balls, and the Cubs are now up to 10th in the NL in runs scored (not great, but up from 15th).

A 6-1 homestand on the heels of a 5-2 road trip is just what the doctor ordered out of the break, and it's nice to have momentum heading into a nine-game road trip to Florida, Cincinnati and Colorado. The Cardinals used a 15-for-29 start from Matt Holliday to take three of four from the best team in the majors, but lost to the Dodgers in 10 innings Thursday, 5-3. So the Cubs regain possession of first place, 1/2 game up on the Cardinals, with the Astros and Brewers four games back at .500 exactly.

***UPDATE***I stand corrected. According to the Trib, Gorzelanny will take over the fifth starter role, and Marshall will remain in the bullpen. Gorzelanny has a 0.96 ERA in his last six minor league starts.

Phillies finally stop streaking; Cubs 5-2 since the break

Wednesday: Cubs 10, Phillies 5

What was your favorite thing about Wednesday's win?

A) Ryan Theriot: 3-for-5 to raise his average to .300 for the first time since May 9, 3 SB
B) Milton Bradley: Returns from Lou's doghouse, 2-for-4 with a run, an RBI and a walk
C) Aramis Ramirez: 2-for-4 with two runs, two RBI and two walks

D) Alfonso Soriano: 2-for-5 with a run and an RBI, July average at .328
E) Carlos Zambrano: 6.2 IP, win #7

It was that kind of game. The kind of game where bloggers can make lists of positive statistics and ask their readers which one is their favorite.

The Cubs had 13 hits--Koyie Hill and Carlos Zambrano were the only starters without one. The offensive outburst finally put that Phillies winning streak to bed, and it masked an okay-but-subpar outing by Zambrano.

It also netted a successful 5-2 road trip to begin the second half. And none of us can be shocked about a series loss in Philadelphia--the Cubs haven't won a series there since 2001. But by taking care of business in Washington, the Cubs stand at 7-3 in their last 10 as they head into a 7-game homestand (3 vs. Cincinnati, 4 vs. Houston).

I've certainly taken my shots at Milton Bradley, but this is still worth pointing out: the Cubs are 11-5 in the last 16 games he's played, and just 1-3 in the last four he hasn't.

Central Intelligence

The Astros scored two in the 9th off Ryan Franklin (just his second blown save in 24 chances) to secure the sweep, pulling themselves and the Cubs within one game of first. The Brewers lost on a walk-off as well, so they remain two games back.

Did you see who started for the Yankees on Tuesday? Sergio Mitre.

Mitre, you'll recall, was a Cubs prospect in the early part of this century and then started 18 games for them from 2003-2005. I remember sitting three rows behind the Cubs dugout when he beat Roy Halladay and helped his own cause with an RBI double (click on the link to see the box score from that 2005 game--take a look at the Blue Jays' leadoff man too).

Mitre was shipped to the Marlins in December, 2005, in the Juan Pierre deal. He started 27 games in 2007, going 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He then underwent Tommy John surgery last July, and did not throw a pitch the entire season. He signed with the Yankees last November.

But in January of this year, Mitre was suspended 50 games for violating MLB's steroid policy. He served his suspension while on the DL, and was called up Tuesday due to Chien-Ming Wang landing on the DL. He allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Orioles, getting his first win since '07 along the way.

Say what?

T.J. Houshmandzadeh says he won't play Madden any more because Madden '10 has his rating too low. He's the 6th highest-rated receiver in the NFC! Besides, we all know he can't resist the lure of Madden.

Comeback Cubs

Friday: Cubs 8, Indians 7 (10 inn.)


What do you call an additional cup of coffee?

Wait for it ...

Mojo.

And the Cubs are all about it.

Down 7-0 with reigning Cy Young winner Cliff Lee on the mound, the Cubs scratched and clawed their way back to tie it, scoring four in the 8th (for the second straight game) and another in the 9th. And when Theriot's 10th-inning game-winning single took a bounce that the laws of physics couldn't possibly explain, it seemed that maybe the tide had finally turned. I was definitely excited when Lee pounded his second home run of the game to tie off Kerry Wood, but I would prefer the Cubs win the next two in 8 1/2 innings--I don't particularly enjoy seeing Wood get knocked around.

The Cubs have climbed out of four- and seven-run deficits in consecutive games. Friday's comeback was the biggest for the Cubs since this game from last year in which the Cubs beat the Rockies after trailing 8-0. One of the heroes from that game was, ahem, Mark DeRosa. (Even the Cubs' own Web site couldn't believe what happened: the headline for the game recap--even after it was over--was "Cubs can't dig out of early hole vs. Tribe.")

Speaking of DeRosa, it was really nice to see him get a standing ovation when he came to bat in the first. Too often fans boo a former hero simply because they've left town. DeRosa obviously did not make the choice to leave, and he deserves applause for the contributions he made while he was in Chicago.

What a boost to get a win in a game pitched by Cliff Lee when you consider that the weekend pitching match-ups favor the Cubs with Ohka (0-1, 4.24) facing Lilly (7-4, 2.94) on Saturday, and lefty Sowers (1-4, 5.14) battling Wells (0-3, 2.55) on Sunday. Something tells me Wells is in line for his first career win.

On the negative side, it was a tough day at the office for Rich Harden as he continued to get burned by the long ball. The two home runs he allowed gave him 11 on the season, the same number he allowed all of last year.

Good to see Jake Fox get a start at third base. He did fine defensively and was robbed on a grounder up the middle that would have scored a run had it sneaked through.

One complaint: Why did Lou take down pinch-hitter Mike Fontenot when Indians manager Eric Wedge brought in lefty Rafael Perez? Perez has allowed a ridiculous .436 average against lefties this season, and in general, you'd prefer to see Fontenot at the plate rather than Koyie Hill. In the end, it worked out as Hill reached on an infield single.

Okay, two complaints: Marmol will not--repeat, will not--be an effective reliever if he continues to walk people at this pace. With two more walks Friday, he has now walked 34 batters in less than 33 innings. He has survived to the tune of a 3.69 ERA by allowing just 17 hits, but you can't give away that many free passes and succeed consistently in the big leagues.

But enough of that. The Cubs are over .500 and have their mojo back, baby.

What the sell?

It's one step forward and two steps back with the sale of the Cubs. Sam Zell (who may still lose control of the Tribune Co.) is now talking to bidders other than Ricketts.

MLB notes

-Brothers Jeff and Jered Weaver will start against each other on Saturday. It's the first time since 2002 that siblings have opposed each other on the mound. (hat tip: Baseball Musings)

-The Padres are now down two starters as Chris Young joins Jake Peavy on the DL.

Cubs get a big win, pull closer to first in mediocre NL Central

Sunday: Cubs 3, Twins 2


Ahhhh.

Doesn't that feel good? A nice walk-off win at home got the Cubs back to .500 for the 12th time this season. Theriot's game-winning single ended the four-game losing streak and gave the Cubs some good mojo heading into a big series with the crosstown rival White Sox (who, by the way, beat the Brewers again to help the Cubs pull within 2.5 games of first).

Ted Lilly pitched well enough to get the win, but left the game with the score tied 2-2. Interestingly, despite having a team-leading seven wins, Lilly has won in just two ballparks this season: Wrigley Field four times and Minute Maid Park three times.

Enjoy the day off on Monday--the Cubs will play the next 23 days.

Cubs note

Ryan Theriot, who struck out once Sunday, has seen his strikeout total rise significantly this season. He already has 39 K's this year; he had just 58 all of last year and 50 in 2007. He seems to have a completely different approach at the plate this year--he of course has the six home runs, and he seems to shoot for the right side of the field much less often. Hit clutch single on Sunday was more like it.

MLB notes

-You couldn't make this up.

-Caught in a rundown Sunday, Johnny Damon took a page out of A-Rod's playbook and swiped the ball out of Alex Cora's glove. Fortunately, the ump saw it and called Damon out. Just another reason to hate the Yankees.

-The combined lines of NL East aces Derrek Lowe and Johan Santana Sunday: 5.1 IP, 17 H, 16 ER (ERA of 27.00) .

-Two AL pitchers hit home runs Sunday: Mark Buehrle and Josh Beckett. Beckett, of course, used to play in the NL with the Marlins.