A recipe for success

Clearly, the Cubs' current lineup is not getting the job done. Hendry shook things up a bit on Sunday by firing hitting coach Gerald Perry and replacing him with Triple-A hitting coach Von Joshua (Joshua was the White Sox hitting coach from 1998-2001). I can't recall offhand a team firing their hitting coach and then suddenly scoring runs in bunches, but I suppose shaking things up is worth a try. It's certainly not fair to lay all the Cubs' woes at Perry's feet; after all, he was the hitting coach last year when the Cubs consistently worked good at-bats and tore the cover off the ball. But perhaps a new personality and some fresh perspective will give the bats a lift.

What else can the Cubs do to help right the ship? Here are a few thoughts:

Get Miles out of the lineup. Why is he starting every day? He's batting .202 and slugging a pathetic .254. Bobby Scales, who was inexplicably sent down when Harden came off the DL, was hitting just .241 but was slugging .466. He's also a better defensive second baseman. The Cubs could have sent Waddell down or gotten rid of the useless (and seldom used) David Patton instead. Even Andres Blanco would be an improvement over Miles.

Start Reed Johnson, even against righties. I'm not saying Kosuke should never play again, but let's give Johnson a chance. Fukudome has done absolutely nothing at the plate in the last few weeks, and Johnson (.272/.333/.437) deserves a chance to prove himself after a great season in '08.


Bring up Jake Fox. Fox will come up and DH when the Cubs head to Detroit on June 23. If he continues to rake, give him a shot at starting every now and then and let's see how bad is defense really is. He may be able to make up for his glove with his bat.

Move Soriano down in the order. If Soriano's going to strikeout no matter where he bats, then I suppose it doesn't matter all that much. But you simply cannot have a player with a .300 OBP (.268 in June) at the top of the order.

Start Hoffpauir occasionally. I hate to compliment Tony La Russa, but I believe part of the reason the Cardinals get so much out of so little year after year is because every player knows he needs to prove himself in order to stay in the lineup. Start Hoffpauir in left and/or right field every now and then. If he produces, give him more playing time. If not, you may see the residual effect of Bradley and/or Soriano stepping up their game to prove themselves.


Well, there are my two cents. What do you think the Cubs need to do to turn their offensive fortunes around?

**UPDATE**They're listening to me! Okay, maybe not, but the Cubs recalled Jake Fox Tuesday and placed Jason Waddell on the DL.

Puh-lease, lineup

Lou Piniella was not kidding when he said he was going to tweak his lineup for the Cardinals series. Five of the spots were different from what we've typically seen so far.

Old lineup

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Hoffpauir
Ramirez
Fontenot
Soto
Theriot

New lineup (* indicates change)

Theriot*
Fukudome
Soriano*
Ramirez*
Lee*
Fontenot
Soto
Johnson*

Theriot batting leadoff (yay!)? Lee dropped to five (yay!)? Soriano batting third?

That is some serious change. For the most part, I like it. But in the end, it's not as much about where players are hitting as it's a matter of how well they're hitting. And right now, no one on the Cubs is doing much of anything at the plate. Ramirez has been carrying much of the load, and he left Friday's game with a strained left calf. He's out for Saturday, leaving the Cubs with no back-up infielders.

After a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, the Cubs have now scored four runs in their last three games. The futility has gone on long enough that you have to figure when the Cubs finally do break out of it, they're going to do it in a big way. Saturday would be a good time for it, as they'll be facing Mitchell Boggs, who has six career starts to his name and a career 7.25 ERA.

Cubs notes
-I gotta admit, I'm already getting real sick of Milton Bradley. He's way less fun than his family-friendly name would suggest. He has started just one game since April 12, has exactly one hit on the season, boycotted the media for approximately one week, has been ejected from one game, and has been suspended by the league once. But perhaps what's most upsetting is that he's living up to his reputation of being a distraction. He's got this whole paranoia thing goin' on, like everyone in the world is after him for no apparent reason.

And why oh why will he not just serve his two-game suspension while he's too hurt to play anyways? Granted, that may be his status the entire season, so I suppose we shouldn't worry about that too much.

-Aaron Heilman has been a real bright spot out of the 'pen. He has appeared in 10 games, has gotten in the win column twice, and his ERA is 0.93. Heilman's success will be even more vital the next few days, given that Marmol left Friday's game with a sore knee and will miss at least 4-5 days.

-The Cajun Connection is really struggling to connect right now. Fontenot is 3-30 dating back to April 11, while Theriot is one for his last 13.

-The Cubs have turned 12 double plays, and are on pace for 129 this season.

Did you know ...
-The Phillies have allowed at least one home run in all 15 of their games this season, an MLB record to begin a season.

-The Pirates lead the National League in ERA.

Sizing up the lineup

Before the season starts up (in eight days!!), I wanted to take a look at the Cubs lineup. The lineup has been controversial ever since the Cubs acquired Soriano, and with a few additions and subtractions this year, there's even more room for debate regarding the Cubs batting order. Here's what it will probably look like come April 6:

1. Alfonso Soriano, LF
2. Kosuke Fukudome, CF
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Milton Bradley, RF
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
6. Mike Fontenot, 2B
7. Geovany Soto, C
8. Ryan Theriot, SS
9. Pitcher

So Soriano will still be belting leadoff solo home runs; Fukudome will either set the table nicely with his ability to get on base or create a black hole in the two spot with his complete inability to get on base; Lee, whose slugging percentage was better than that of only Fukudome and Theriot last year, will still bat third; Bradley provides the lefty 'tween the two sluggers; and Theriot would bring up the rear.

Baseball Musings, a great Web site, has a lineup analysis tool that uses players' on-base percentages and slugging percentages to determine the best and worst possible lineups. Plugging in last year's numbers for these players, Baseball Musings projects the following:

• Best lineup: 5.42 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game

The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008.

Their best lineup, interestingly, looks like this:

1. Bradley
2. Fontenot
3. Fukudome
4. Ramirez
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Pitcher
9. Theriot

Few things: 1) this is a very untraditional lineup that we would never see, but it's interesting to look at, 2) notice the little LaRussa-ism in there, with Theriot batting ninth behind the pitcher, and 3) all three lefties are at the top, eliminating all the lineup balance Piniella is seeking for this year's team.

Here's how I would fill out the lineup card:

1. Theriot
2. Fontenot
3. Ramirez
4. Bradley
5. Lee
6. Soriano
7. Soto
8. Johnson/Fukudome
9. Pitcher

This lineup generally places the strong OBP at the top, whereas Piniella's backloads them. Baseball Musings points out that the Cubs just may score more runs in the second inning this year than the first, with on-base guys like Bradley, Ramirez and Fontenot coming up in the second.

This lineup also provides nearly the same balance as Piniella's, with lefties batting 2, 4 and 8. I've placed the Cajun Connection and their +.380 OBPs at the top. While I hope I'm wrong, Lee seems to be to be on the decline, and I would take his subpar slugging percentage and move it down. Ramirez is the purest run producer on the team, so I move him into the all-important three hole, with lefty Bradley behind him. Soriano's .532 slugging percentage looks nice in the six spot, followed by the capable Soto and presumably the weakest (though hopefully not weak) part of the lineup, the Reed Johnson/Fukudome platoon.

Under the assumption Piniella doesn't read my blog and alter his lineup plans, the Cubs offense should still be in good shape. This is virtually the same lineup that led the NL in runs scored (855), OBP (.354), SLG (.443), and finished second in batting average (.278) in 2008. Can you BELIEVE the Cubs--the Chicago freakin' Cubs--led the NL in on-base percentage? If the Cubs maintain a focus on taking bad pitches, drawing walks, and getting on base however they can, this offense will be another force to be reckoned with. They've essentially replaced Fukudome with Bradley and Johnson/Edmonds with Johnson/Fukudome. Lee has room to improve over last year, Fukudome was useless for three months, Soriano missed over 50 games, and Soto was just a rookie. On the other hand, can Theriot and Fontenot keep it up? Will Bradley trot out to right field enough to justify his contract?

One note on Fukudome: I can understand giving him a chance to play everyday--he's making $12 mil, and he demonstrated potential last April and May. The Cubs' high OBP was even referred to as the Fukudome Factor until Fukudome himself was no longer a factor. But I am worried about him. He looked lost during the WBC, tallying no extra base hits and getting benched for the championship game. Reed Johnson plays the game hard and finds ways to contribute. So once again, I understand giving Fukudome a shot, but I personally would have him on a short leash.

So, what do you think about the lineup? Share your thoughts and suggestions in the comments.

Here's to setting another franchise record for walks and breaking the 900 run mark!