As predicted, we predicted terribly

You might recall that Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I made our annual Cubs predictions last March. We predicted seven categories total; in five of them, all three predictions turned out to be higher than the actual result. So either the Cubs had a pathetic season in which they underperformed to an extreme degree, or all three of us are blindly optimistic fools with zero talent for predicting what will occur in a Cubs season. Or both. You know what, I think it's both.

Last year, Trevor and Andrew tied with three apiece while I had two.

*Actual result in parentheses

Cubs wins (75)

Trevor 88
Andrew 87
Brandon 86

Um ... yay? I don't feel good about benefiting from the Cubs' debacle of a season.

Had the Cubs won 86 games, the lowest of our three predictions, they would have lost the division by just three games and finished ahead of the Cardinals by two. Instead, they finished with the eighth-worst record in the majors. They were worse than teams such as the Astros, Brewers, Marlins and A's. They were even worse than the Mets. Not a great year.

Randy Wells wins (8)

Trevor 13
Brandon 11
Andrew 10

After winning 12 in his rookie season, Wells started five more games in 2010 but won only eight. His ERA went up by more than a point even though he actually gave up fewer hits/9 in 2010 compared to 2009. He was much less consistent this season--he had three starts of four innings or fewer.

Soto slugging percentage (.497)
Brandon .475
Andrew .445
Trevor .430

Here's the only category where we were all too pessimistic. Soto had a great bounce back season. While playing in only 105 games hurt his power numbers, his slash line was back to the level of his Rookie of the Year campaign. (Slash line is average/on-base/slugging.)

2008: .285/.364/.504

2010: .280/.393/.497

He also had a higher HR/AB ratio this season than in 2008. My win here puts me up 2-1 on Andrew.

Zambrano wins (11)
Trevor 20
Brandon 14
Andrew 14

Good guess, Trevor. No, really, I mean he averaged 11.5 wins over the previous two seasons and he's never won 20 in his life. As it turned out, Zambrano only started 20 games due to his time spent in the bullpen. 3-2 me over Andrew. (Trevor? You there?)

Derrek Lee HR (19)

Brandon 33
Trevor 33
Andrew 27

Ouch. If you don't count 2006 when he missed most of the season or 1999 when he only played 70 games, this was his lowest home run total since 1998. He also had his lowest average (.260) since 1998. His punishment? Being banished to the Orioles, where Cubs go to die.

By going low, Andrew's tied it at 3. This is dramatic ...

Carlos Marmol walks per 9 innings (6.0)
Brandon 6.4
Andrew 5.8
Trevor 5.1

This category was meant to be indicative of Marmol's season overall. As in: lots of walks per nine innings? He must be blowing lots of saves. Not many walks per nine innings? Wow, he must be doing well as the closer. Since I thought he was going to be a disaster as closer, I went high on this one. Turns out I lost to Andrew by just 0.2, yet Marmol had a great season. He was 38-for-43 in saves, had a 2.55 ERA and led the majors with a ridiculous 16 strikeouts per nine innings. He was in fact one of the few pieces of glitter on the turd that was the Cubs' season. And yet ... lots of walks. Oh well. You win this round, Andrew.

Theriot OBP (.321)
Andrew .380
Brandon .370
Trevor .365

And Trevor takes his first category despite being pretty far off on this one. A few players who had a higher OBP than Theriot in 2010:

Alfonso Soriano

Drew Stubbs

Ryan Ludwick

Yovani Gallardo

Dan Haren

Angel Pagan

Albert Pujols was walked intentionally 38 times in 2010. Theriot walked 41 times total. So anyways, Theriot is not good at getting on base. None of us realized that, but Trevor's guess sucked the least.

Final tally:

Andrew 4

Brandon 3

Trevor 1

Congratulations, Andrew! A tie for first last year and an outright victory this year. You are forcing me to slightly doubt my hypothesis that living in Texas for an extended period of time inevitably turns you into a babbling buffoon who wears spurs and eats your own poop. But only slightly.

Actual NL Central Standings

Reds

Cardinals

Brewers

Astros

Cubs

Pirates

Predicted
Brandon
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

Sizing up our predictions at the halfway point

It's the All-Star break, and you know what that means:

1) I'm bored out of my mind

2) The AL will have home field advantage in the World Series locked up shortly

But also, it's time to take stock of the preseason predictions that were made here at Wait 'til this Year, and to marvel at the incomprehensible foresight displayed by myself, Trevor Sierra and Andrew Kapral. Or maybe, just maybe, the exact opposite of that. I honestly haven't looked at these since they were posted in March, and still haven't glanced at them even as I type this. But I have a feeling it's about to get ugly. Children avert your eyes, Cardinals and Sox fans enjoy.

Cubs wins

Trevor 88

Andrew 87

Brandon 86

Actual pace: 71

[cracks knuckles and sighs with satisfaction] Yup, that's right. Who's got two thumbs and knows what he's talking about? [Points at self with thumbs] This guy.

Okay, so I'm probably going to be off by 10 or 15 games, but this isn't The Price is Right. A win's a win. And that's a phrase the Cubs have been able to use far too seldom this season. It's not like we went that overboard with our predictions. Eighty-eight wins seemed reasonable, right? Apparently not.

Randy Wells wins

Trevor 13

Brandon 11

Andrew 10

Actual pace: 7

Why do I get the feeling that the person with the lowest guess in each category is going to be in good shape this year?

Wells hasn't looked much like the '09 Wells--he's already allowed just two fewer earned runs than all of last season, mostly due to a significantly higher batting average on balls in play (.337 vs. .292) which is due in part to a decreased ground ball/fly ball ratio, never a good thing for a sinkerballer. His last three starts have been quality starts, though, so maybe he can have a strong second half and finish with, oh, I don't know, say, 11 wins.

Soto slugging percentage

Brandon .475

Andrew .445

Trevor .430

Actual: .480

Who's got two thumbs and ... what, I already used that one? Ah, yes, just a couple minutes ago. I remember now.

Soto's had a strange season. He was walking all the time early on (he has seven fewer walks than all of last season), but seemed to lack power and productivity. Piniella must have felt the same way because he started playing Koyie Hill consistently. But it turns out Soto's doing pretty well: he's in the top 10 among NL catchers in OBP (2), SLG (2), OPS (3), HR (5), RBI (7) and wOBA (3). His SLG is just 24 points lower than it was in his 2008 Rookie of the Year campaign.

And now, a comparison of Soto's stats to those of the NL's All-Star starting catcher, Yadier Molina:

Molina: .223 avg, 3 HR, 33 RBI, .301 OBP, .284 SLG, .595 OPS

Soto: .289 avg, 9 HR, 27 RBI, .412 OBP, .488 SLG, .900 OPS

That's a f**king joke. Reason #47 that the All-Star starters should be selected by players and coaches. And Soto shouldn't even be the starter--the Rockies' Miguel Olivo should be.

Zambrano wins

Trevor 20

Andrew 14

Brandon 14

Actual pace: 5

What's crazier: Carlos Zambrano when he thinks his defense isn't trying, or Trevor for predicting 20 wins for the staff joker?

Derrek Lee home runs

Brandon 33

Trevor 33

Andrew 27

Actual pace: 18

Since when does a player tank in his contract year? Does he not have an agent? I really believe in the Contract Year Phenomenon (that players really do play better in many cases when $$$$ is on the line), but leave it to the Cubs to have a key player with just 36 RBI and a .366 slugging percentage at the break despite having an expiring contract. Stupid Cubs.

Carlos Marmol walks per nine innings

Brandon 6.4

Andrew 5.8

Trevor 5.1

Actual: 6.0

It's not as bad as his horrendous 7.9 last year, but it's still bad. Of course he's made up for it with a ludicrous 16.85 K/9 and a miniscule .164 BAA. I went high on this one because I thought Marmol might be a disaster as the closer this season. Clearly I was wrong--he's been one of the Cubs' biggest highlights. Nevertheless, he can be wild, and this one might come down to the wire.

Theriot OBP

Andrew .380

Brandon .370

Trevor .365

Actual: .317

He had a solid .387 OBP back in 2008, but was under .345 in '07 and '09. This year has been even worse--he made news by walking just once in May. Given that he's already 30, it doesn't look like he'll ever be the leadoff man we all hoped he'd be.

And there you have it. Turns out I'm going to need the entire All-Star break to digest how terrible my predictions were.

2010 Cubs predictions

We're only five days away from Opening Day, which means it's about time for me, Trevor Sierra and Andrew Kapral to make comically inaccurate predictions about the upcoming season. Last season, Trevor and Andrew tied with three apiece while I had only two. I won in 2008, and Andrew dominated in 2007. Due to the sensitive nature of these predictions, all information prior to 2007 has been destroyed.

On with it:

*2009 totals in parentheses

Cubs wins (83)
Trevor 88
Andrew 87
Brandon 86

(good luck with that one, Andrew)

Randy Wells wins (12)
Trevor 13
Brandon 11
Andrew 10

(Dammit.)

Soto slugging percentage (.381)
Brandon .475
Andrew .445
Trevor .430

Zambrano wins (9)
Trevor 20
Brandon 14
Andrew 14

Derrek Lee HR (35)
Brandon 33
Trevor 33
Andrew 27

Carlos Marmol walks per 9 innings (7.9)
Brandon 6.4
Andrew 5.8
Trevor 5.1

Theriot OBP (.343)
Andrew .380
Brandon .370
Trevor .365


Final NL Central standings
Brandon
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

Not an August performance

Monday: Astros 5, Cubs 3


What do you think Rich Harden was thinking about when he went to bed Sunday night? Was he hoping to be traded to Minnesota, where the Twins are 3.5 games behind the Tigers and where his good friend Justin Morneau resides? Or was he hoping to find himself on the mound at Wrigley Monday night, keeping open the possibility that he will remain in Chicago beyond 2009.

We may never know the answer to that, but while the Twins were dealing a knockout blow to the White Sox (the Sox traded Jim Thome and Jose Contreras after the game), the Cubs were turning in another meek performance en route to a 5-3 loss and an 11-17 August. It was the almost-former Cubs night, as Harden went five innings and then Aaron Heilman, who was claimed off waivers by the Giants over the weekend, came in for the next two. Former closer Kevin Gregg pitched the eighth and pretty new Cub John Grabow threw a perfect ninth.

Piniella says he'll play Koyie Hill "a lot more" instead of Geovany Soto, and I can't blame him. I just hope Soto finds his 2008 Rookie of the Year form when the calendar turns to 2010.

Back to Jim Thome getting traded: he went to the Dodgers, which makes me wonder where he's gonna play. Having played just 28 games at first base since 2005 (he was strictly a DH with the White Sox), are they just going to use him off the bench? I'm not sure that Thome, who has 23 home runs and 74 RBI this year, would be too thrilled with that.

Speaking of trades by the Dodgers...

L.A. also picked up starter Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks, and the best part of that trade is that Jon Garland found out during their game last night--against the Dodgers. So all Garland had to do was switch dugouts!

I predict that I'm about to toot my own horn

While the Twins apparently killed the White Sox' chances of making the playoffs, the Cubs have been turning twin killings at a rate very pleasurable to me this season. That's because heading into last night's game, the Cubs were on pace to turn 149 double plays. That happens to be the exact number that I predicted prior to the season.

2009 Cubs predictions

I would like to share with you not only my predictions for the 2009 Cubs season, but also those of my good friends Trevor Sierra and Andrew Kapral. The three of us have an annual tradition of looking into our crystal balls (or perhaps Christol ball, in my case?) and predicting a few elements of each upcoming Cubs season, and I figured it would be a nice kickoff to the 2009 campaign to share our predictions with you, and also to solicit your predictions.

Before I move on, I want to congratulate Andrew Kapral on his marriage to Jen Stephan (yesterday!). The event--which included a singing of "Go Cubs Go"--was wonderful, and I wish the happy couple all the best. On this day, we will even forgive Jen for being a Pirates fan. That is, of course, assuming that she has forgiven herself for being a Pirates fan.

For the record, I won a narrow victory in last year's prediction challenge, coming closest in three of the categories while Trevor and Andrew each tallied two. Way back in '07, Andrew dominated the competition, coming closest in four of the seven categories, with me taking two and Trevor just one.

And now, drum roll please ...

*2008 total in parentheses

Cubs wins (97)
Brandon 92
Trevor 89
Andrew 90

Zambrano wins (14)
Brandon 17
Trevor 17
Andrew 19

Fukudome average (.257)
Brandon .274
Trevor .271
Andrew .280

Gregg saves (29)
Brandon 31
Trevor 29
Andrew 23

Soto home runs (23)
Brandon 29
Trevor 27
Andrew 24

Marshall wins (3)
Brandon 12
Trevor 12
Andrew 10

Team double plays turned (118)
Brandon 149
Trevor 128
Andrew 128

At first, I didn't understand why Andrew suggested that last category. But then I did some research and discovered that the Cubs have been atrocious at turning double plays over recent years, making this an interesting category to predict. The last five years, the Cubs have finished last in the majors twice, second to last once, third to last once, and 26th overall once. So they have finished in the bottom five in double plays turned every year since 2004. The last time they were decent was 2003, when an infield led by Alex Gonzalez and Mark Grudzielanek turned 157 twin killings and finished 15th in the majors. And it's worth noting that a botched double play may have cost the Cubs a shot at the World Series that year (Game 6 vs. the Marlins).

Final NL Central standings
Brandon
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

Trevor
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Astros
Reds
Brewers
Pirates

OK, readers, I want to know what you expect from this year's Cubs. Share your predictions (in whatever categories you want) in the comments!