From D to Z: Dempster gets Opening Day nod, followed by Zambrano

*I actually wrote this before Quade named Dempster the Opening Day starter, I swear. But I've edited it to reflect Quade's rather early decision.

The question scarcely had to be asked the last few years since Carlos Zambrano has been on the mound the last six Opening Days. But after a season in which Zambrano went all Zambrano and was banished to the bullpen for over a month, and with a new manager at the helm, we knew that streak was in jeopardy in 2011. Given that Z has just one win in those six tries and that the memory of the Braves bashing him around last year has not quite faded (it was kind of him to throw Jason Heyward that coming out party, though), I think it's time to give someone else a chance. On Monday, we found out that Quade agrees.

The obvious choice was indeed Ryan Dempster. In the three seasons since he became a starter again, he has won more games than Z each year and had a lower ERA in two of the three years. He's eclipsed the 200-inning mark all three seasons (Z hasn't done so since 2007) and has been consistently solid in his seven years as a Cub.

In terms of ERA and WHIP, a case could have been made for the newly acquired Matt Garza. But in my opinion, while getting the nod for Opening Day is mostly about recognition of talent, I think it's also an honor. And given that the next time Garza plays in a Cubs uniform will also be the first, I think Dempster is much more deserving of the distinction.

Of course we might also ask: Does it really matter who starts? Not really. It's just one game, just one start; each pitcher will get about 30 more over the course of the season. But Zambrano's lack of success on the season's first day is noteworthy and makes Mike Quade's decision perhaps more meaningful than the corresponding decision that, say, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle will have to make. Zambrano tends to operate at about 100 mph, sort of like someone who's high on coke. Yeah, someone who's high on coke and has Tourette's. But it seems like on Opening Days he's more jacked up than Lindsay Lohan on a Friday night. The role simply doesn't fit him. It's like asking Gary Busey to be your Jenga partner--you're going to lose and it's probably not going to end well.

So way to change it up, Quade. Let's see what a little calmness on the mound looks like on the season's first day. It's an honor Dempster deserves, and it gives the Cubs the Opening Day opportunity they deserve.

But what do you think? Is Dempster the right guy? Who should be on the mound April 1?

As predicted, we predicted terribly

You might recall that Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I made our annual Cubs predictions last March. We predicted seven categories total; in five of them, all three predictions turned out to be higher than the actual result. So either the Cubs had a pathetic season in which they underperformed to an extreme degree, or all three of us are blindly optimistic fools with zero talent for predicting what will occur in a Cubs season. Or both. You know what, I think it's both.

Last year, Trevor and Andrew tied with three apiece while I had two.

*Actual result in parentheses

Cubs wins (75)

Trevor 88
Andrew 87
Brandon 86

Um ... yay? I don't feel good about benefiting from the Cubs' debacle of a season.

Had the Cubs won 86 games, the lowest of our three predictions, they would have lost the division by just three games and finished ahead of the Cardinals by two. Instead, they finished with the eighth-worst record in the majors. They were worse than teams such as the Astros, Brewers, Marlins and A's. They were even worse than the Mets. Not a great year.

Randy Wells wins (8)

Trevor 13
Brandon 11
Andrew 10

After winning 12 in his rookie season, Wells started five more games in 2010 but won only eight. His ERA went up by more than a point even though he actually gave up fewer hits/9 in 2010 compared to 2009. He was much less consistent this season--he had three starts of four innings or fewer.

Soto slugging percentage (.497)
Brandon .475
Andrew .445
Trevor .430

Here's the only category where we were all too pessimistic. Soto had a great bounce back season. While playing in only 105 games hurt his power numbers, his slash line was back to the level of his Rookie of the Year campaign. (Slash line is average/on-base/slugging.)

2008: .285/.364/.504

2010: .280/.393/.497

He also had a higher HR/AB ratio this season than in 2008. My win here puts me up 2-1 on Andrew.

Zambrano wins (11)
Trevor 20
Brandon 14
Andrew 14

Good guess, Trevor. No, really, I mean he averaged 11.5 wins over the previous two seasons and he's never won 20 in his life. As it turned out, Zambrano only started 20 games due to his time spent in the bullpen. 3-2 me over Andrew. (Trevor? You there?)

Derrek Lee HR (19)

Brandon 33
Trevor 33
Andrew 27

Ouch. If you don't count 2006 when he missed most of the season or 1999 when he only played 70 games, this was his lowest home run total since 1998. He also had his lowest average (.260) since 1998. His punishment? Being banished to the Orioles, where Cubs go to die.

By going low, Andrew's tied it at 3. This is dramatic ...

Carlos Marmol walks per 9 innings (6.0)
Brandon 6.4
Andrew 5.8
Trevor 5.1

This category was meant to be indicative of Marmol's season overall. As in: lots of walks per nine innings? He must be blowing lots of saves. Not many walks per nine innings? Wow, he must be doing well as the closer. Since I thought he was going to be a disaster as closer, I went high on this one. Turns out I lost to Andrew by just 0.2, yet Marmol had a great season. He was 38-for-43 in saves, had a 2.55 ERA and led the majors with a ridiculous 16 strikeouts per nine innings. He was in fact one of the few pieces of glitter on the turd that was the Cubs' season. And yet ... lots of walks. Oh well. You win this round, Andrew.

Theriot OBP (.321)
Andrew .380
Brandon .370
Trevor .365

And Trevor takes his first category despite being pretty far off on this one. A few players who had a higher OBP than Theriot in 2010:

Alfonso Soriano

Drew Stubbs

Ryan Ludwick

Yovani Gallardo

Dan Haren

Angel Pagan

Albert Pujols was walked intentionally 38 times in 2010. Theriot walked 41 times total. So anyways, Theriot is not good at getting on base. None of us realized that, but Trevor's guess sucked the least.

Final tally:

Andrew 4

Brandon 3

Trevor 1

Congratulations, Andrew! A tie for first last year and an outright victory this year. You are forcing me to slightly doubt my hypothesis that living in Texas for an extended period of time inevitably turns you into a babbling buffoon who wears spurs and eats your own poop. But only slightly.

Actual NL Central Standings

Reds

Cardinals

Brewers

Astros

Cubs

Pirates

Predicted
Brandon
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

Week 11 awards: Hard to defend Cubs' defense

The Cubs have had plenty of problems on offense this season, and they've struggled at times on the mound. But last week, their most prominent deficiency was in the field. After committing a rather unreasonable 12 errors in six games, they have now committed the third-most in the majors. Errors last week:

Lee: 3 (committed six all of last season)

Baker: 3

Colvin: 2

Soto: 2

Castro: 1

Lilly: 1

The Cubs allowed four unearned runs in a 9-5 loss Tuesday, four more in a 7-6 loss Friday, and had they not given the Angels four more on Saturday, they would have ... well, lost 8-0. But still.

I was "lucky" enough to see Saturday's demolition in person, and I guess we can't be surprised that this feast or famine team followed up that drubbing with a 12-1 pounding of their own. Here's hoping the offense can remain locked in as the Cubs will face two Seattle starters with sub-three ERAs, including Cliff Lee, and then Felix Hernandez.

Ryno of the Week: Colvin continued to rake, going 6-for-15 with two home runs, six RBI and three runs scored. He's now hitting .339 at home. But how nice was it to see Carlos Zambrano put together a couple good starts, especially yesterday's? His line--7 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 7 K--was his best of the season, and he added two hits and an RBI just for the heck of it.

Honorable mentions: Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady

Goat of the Week: Alfonso Soriano continues to look lost at the plate despite two hits yesterday, but being there live to see Ted Lilly get banged around leads me to give him this inglorious distinction. He needed 104 pitches to get through 5.1, giving up six earned runs on nine hits and three walks. He's been great this year, but Saturday just wasn't his day.

Aramis squares one up, Cubs win 4-2

(AP)

I wasn't going to write a recap of last night's game, but I simply couldn't resist putting pen to paper (er, whatever) after seeing Aramis Ramirez do something he hadn't done since Tax Day--hit a home run. There's no telling whether that walk-off bomb will finally get him going again, but it's fun to assume it will, so ... yay, Ramirez is back!

But seriously, that was easily the best moment of the season for me. In just 39 games, my feelings on Ramirez sank from having complete faith in him to extreme frustration to basically assuming he would never ever hit the ball hard ever again. I don't think I've ever taken that emotional journey quite so quickly. There were times the last couple years when I took part of that journey with Soriano, and I took that journey over a more extended time frame with Sammy Sosa, but this was different (I say "was" because, once again, I'm assuming Ramirez will bat at least .400 the rest of the year). I was to the point that if Ramirez would have hit a solo home run with the Cubs down by 10, I would have pretty much considered that game a success. For him to crush one in the 11th inning of a tie game? Well that's just downright delicious.

Sean Marshall claimed his second win in as many days with two perfect innings that included four strikeouts. The bullpen threw four innings in all and had success for the most part, but two walks by Grabow and a four-pitch walk from Marmol to a guy who has had three seasons in which he walked fewer than 10 times allowed the Rox to force extras. Randy Wells had a strong start, scattering seven hits and escaping a bases loaded, one-out jam in the fourth.

Derrek Lee made many, many outs, but Fukudome and Castro combined for five hits and two runs at the top of the order. Castro also stole a base easily (on the negative side, he failed to get a successful bunt down).

The only thing that tempered the Cubs' second walk-off win of the season was the elephant in the dugout, er, room--why was Carlos Zambrano in the dugout rather than available from the bullpen last night? It turns out he's moving to a long-relief role, which leads you to believe he's on his way back to the rotation. There have been a lot of calls lately for Z to be a starter again, and I'm okay with that. The only problem is, the bullpen will just get that much worse. The fact is, the Cubs just don't have enough good pitchers to form a good starting staff and a good bullpen, so they're sort of screwed either way. But Zambrano might have more success in a long-relief role since he often struggles in his first inning, as sinkerballers often do. He was not very effective as a one-inning set-up type guy.

The Cubs have just one sweep on the season (in Milwaukee), but I'm completely fine with their second coming in a short two-gamer.

Big move: Big Z heads to bullpen

Chris McGrath/Getty

With Ted Lilly's impending return to the starting rotation, Cubs fans were scratching their heads wondering which starter would move to the bullpen. Carlos Silva's been the most reliable starter thus far. Moving Tom Gorzelanny there would mean the team would have more lefties in the 'pen than righties. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells look rather comfortable in their roles.

And then there was Z.

To put it concisely, I like the move. As you may have read in Tuesday's post, Zambrano has in many ways been the Cubs' least productive starter over the last year plus. And one of his biggest flaws is his tendency to have an elevated pitch count, meaning he doesn't go deep enough into games. As a reliever, he will only be asked to throw an inning or so at a time.

So the Cubs essentially trade out Zambrano for Lilly in the starting rotation, which to me is a win. And then they trade, say, Jeff Gray for Zambrano in the bullpen. Also a win. It's a bold move that could certainly backfire, but I think it's worth a try.

Oh, and I completely reject the thought that this is a bad decision simply because Zambrano is making so much money. The $18 million he'll earn this year is a sunk cost--he's getting the money either way. Therefore, what's important is to do what management believes is best for the team, regardless of what relievers and starters are "supposed" to earn.

Is Carlos Zambrano the Cubs' worst starting pitcher?

I have little doubt that that question rings of hyperbole, but it's not intended. I'm quite serious when I wonder if the Cubs' $18 million man is the weak link of the staff. And I'm not asking this simply because Zambrano' s 9.45 ERA is easily the worst on the staff right now, or because his WHIP is the most inferior, or because he's been okay-to-bad in all three of his starts this season. Allow me to elaborate.

First, a non-statistical reason: the most important factor for how you feel going into a baseball game is the pitching match-up. If you say to someone, "You think the Cubs will win today?" their first response will be, "Who's pitching?" And right now, I feel the worst about the Cubs' chances when Zambrano is scheduled to pitch. And it's not just this year--his struggles and inconsistency last year resulted in a rather uncomfortable feeling on days when he took the mound.

The truth is, being a Cubs fan, I overdose on optimism before pretty much any game. There are always reasons to believe that the Cubs will pull out a victory. So usually, I rev myself for any Zambrano start as well, thinking, "He'll have his good stuff today." But as soon as he inevitably goes 2-0 on the first hitter, I remember why, deep down, I was less than excited to watch him pitch.

Dempster's pitching today? Sweet. Lilly's turn in the rotation? Nice. Randy Wells is on the hill? I'll take it. Big Z's slated to go today? Hmmm ...

But maybe my feelings are unfounded, or perhaps I'm simply overreacting to his slow start. Let us explore:

After saving 85 games in three seasons as the Cubs' closer, Dempster became a starter in 2008. He surprised everyone with a 17-6 record, the result of a 1.21 WHIP and 2.96 ERA. He followed that up with a more pedestrian, but still solid, 11-9 campaign last year.

Jim Hendry brought Lilly to the Cubs from Toronto in 2007, and the consensus was that he would be serviceable but not a savior. He went 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 2007, won 17 more in 2008, and collected 12 wins last year while posting a career-best 3.10 ERA. He has arguably been the Cubs' best starter over the last three years.

Wells got called up to the majors last May and made a run at the Rookie of the Year award. He finished 12-10 with a tidy 3.05 ERA.

While Zambrano had at least 14 wins every year from 2004 through 2008, he gathered just nine wins last year and had a 3.77 ERA.

To recap: Lilly, Dempster and Wells all had more wins, a lower ERA, and a lower WHIP than Zambrano last season. But there's more:

I'm a HUGE proponent of the importance of going deep into games. This will be vitally important for Cubs pitchers this season given the struggles of the bullpen. Rich Harden is a great example of a pitcher who is flawed in this area--his value is severely diminished by the fact that, no matter how well he's pitching, he just can't seem to keep his pitch count down. Unfortunately, the same is true of Zambrano:

Pitcher------------Average innings per start in 2009
Zambrano---------------------6.03
Wells----------------------------6.11
Silva (2007)-------------------6.12
Dempster----------------------6.45
Lilly-----------------------------6.55

Silva's is a very small sample size for this year, so I threw in 2007 when he had a solid season with the Twins. This year, he's averaged 6.5 IP in two starts, compared to Zambrano's 4.43 in three starts.

Zambrano is simply too wild. While this might (I repeat: might) not be true of his emotions any more, it remains true of his pitch control. He threw an absurd 121 pitches in just five innings against Milwaukee on Thursday. Even when Zambrano is going good, he doesn't match the skill set owned by pitchers like Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or other pitchers who can be efficient on the mound.

I have one more piece of evidence in my case against Zambrano--defense. Somewhat amazingly, Big Z has made an error in all three of his starts this season. On Wednesday, he inexplicably tried to pick off 39-year-old Jim Edmonds with two outs, and threw the ball away. Edmonds would later score. I'm inclined to think that his fielding errors are really mental errors rather than an indication of limited athletic ability. But whatever they are, they represent another chink in Z's armor.

Obviously, we've all seen Carlos Zambrano at his best. Jim Hendry didn't give him five years and $91 million for no reason (and I for one did not oppose the contract extension at the time). Hopefully his first few starts this year will look like an aberration when the year is through. But for now, based on both history and the first two weeks of 2010, I think it's fair to ask: Is Carlos Zambrano the Cubs' worst starting pitcher?

Week two awards

Goat of the Week: The Cubs went 3-3 this week with their three losses coming by a total of four runs. So really, no one did all that baaaaaadly (like a goat, get it?). But for my goat, I'm going to go with Carlos Zambrano. Discounting Gorzelanny's start since he was literally knocked out of the game in the third inning, Zambrano had the worst start by any Cub last week. Though the four runs he allowed weren't that awful, he gave them up in just five innings, needing an incredible 121 pitches to get through those five innings. The bullpen was forced to work overtime, and they lost 8-6. Sadly, it wasn't even close to being Zambrano's worst start out of three this season given his Opening Day disaster. Much more on Big Z tomorrow.

Dishonorable mentions: Aramis Ramirez, Jeff Samardzija

Ryno of the Week: Marlon Byrd said he loves playing the outfield in front of Wrigley's bleacher bums, and apparently he enjoys the batter's box as well. He was 9-for-26 (.346) with one home run, five RBI and three runs scored last week. He also hit a home run about 9,000 feet on a 3-0 pitch, making me that much more confident that he's on steroids.

Carlos Silva and Ryan Dempster had strong weeks as well. Silva went seven innings on Friday, allowing two unearned runs, just five hits, no walks, and he struck out five. It's very early, but it's starting to look like Jim Hendry may have turned a steaming pile of Milton Bradley into a solid fifth starter. Dempster looks as comfortable at Wrigley as he did in '08: he was 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA last week. (Reason #800,001 that wins and losses are stupid: Dempster won last Monday while allowing five runs in 6.1 innings, but got a no-decision yesterday while allowing just one run in 7.2 innings.)

Honorable mentions: Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee

Did you know ...

• Pirates starters have an MLB-worst 8.38 ERA. Yet the team is 7-5.
• The highest OBP in the majors is owned by ... Scott Podsednik.
  
• Jason Bay has struck out 18 times already, which is more than he has hits, home runs, RBI and stolen bases combined.
• Trevor Sierra said Derrek Lee has been taking a lot of pitches and having good at-bats. He was right: Lee leads the NL with 4.93 pitches seen per plate appearance.
  

First week illustrates Cubs' strengths and weaknesses

Though it's an admittedly small sample size, the first week (and a day) of Cubs baseball revealed a few positives and a couple big negatives:

Positives

Starting pitching
After Zambrano's horrible Opening Day, Dempster, Wells, Silva, Zambrano and Gorzelanny each provided a quality start. Taking out Opening Day, the Cubs' starters had a 1.44 ERA from Wednesday through Sunday. While the back end guys have pitched just one game each, both against Cincinnati, Silva and Gorzo combined to pitch 12 innings and allow just one earned run. If one of these two can come anywhere close to their early success over the entire season, the fifth starter won't be nearly the black hole some feared it would be. In addition, hopefully one of them can provide a boost to the beleaguered bullpen once Lilly returns.

The closer
It's going to be a while before I'm not extremely nervous when Carlos Marmol enters a game with a precarious 9th inning lead, but it must be noted that he converted his first two save opportunities of the season and didn't allow a run in the process. He was very impressive on Saturday, striking out the side to preserve a 4-3 lead.

Hitting for power
The Cubs' 11 home runs ties them for third most in the majors. Ramirez, Byrd and Baker have two each, and Colvin showed his pop with a long home run in his first at-bat of the season. Paging Geovany Soto, paging Geovany Soto ...

Negatives

Hitting for anything other than power
Unless the ball leaves the yard, the Cubs can't seem to get much done on offense: they had the fewest hits of any team in the majors prior to Monday. The Cubs stranded 25 men on Friday and Sunday combined, and left the bases loaded in the 1st inning Sunday after loading them up with nobody out against a pitcher who had never before pitched professional baseball, meaning major league or minor league. On both Opening Day and Saturday, they scored all of their runs via the long ball. In yesterday's nine-run outburst, all but two runs came on home runs.

Middle relief
Lo, that middle relief. We knew heading into the season that it was a potential problem, and unfortunately it's a BIG problem. The relievers have a 6.30 ERA, ranking them 24th in the majors. They've also walked 13 guys in 20 innings, which is unacceptable.

Remember in 2007 when the bullpen struggled early as Lou tried to figure out where each guy belonged? Well, with a lot of youngsters in the 'pen this year, perhaps some similar experimentation will be required. Whether he'll be able to create a reliable bridge to Carlos Marmol remains to be seen. While Esmailin Caridad has decent stuff, he can't control his slider at all right now and is trying to get by with only a fastball. I don't care if you throw 150 mph (he doesn't), that's not going to work.

A terrible start

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

That was almost the worst Opening Day ever. First, the Cardinals win big behind two home runs by King Albert and a grand slam by Yadier Molina. Um, Cardinals, can you not wait more than one freakin' day to have a multi-home run game and your team's first grand slam?

Then the Sox got seven shutout innings from Mark Buehrle to easily take down the Indians 6-0.

Okay, whatever, the bad teams won. But at 3:10 CST, it was time for all that really mattered. Okay, it's 3:10, here we go. And now it's 3:12, no Cubs game. 3:15. 3:20. With the Cubs game not broadcast locally (why on Earth did the Cubs give the all-important Opening Day game to WCIU? How is that possibly a reasonable decision?) and the Cardinals game running late, the Cubs game was blacked out on ESPN. An Opening Day nightmare. Finally, in the second inning, we've got a visual.

The Cubs already have three runs on the board. How'd that happen? It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's ... well, yeah, it's a Byrd. Marlon Byrd with a three-run bomb, the second straight year a Cub has homered in the first inning of the season.

Oh, that's right: Braves get to bat, too. 6-3 by the end of the first. 8-3 after two. Zambrano out. What the hell happened here? I guess Big Z didn't want to waste any time reminding Cubs fans that he's never going to be the ace that some think he is. I know it's just one start, but 1.1 IP and 8 runs? Show me a true staff ace who got lit up like that at any point last season, let alone on Opening Day.

And to top it all off, Duke just barely kept Butler from pulling off a semi-Cinderella upset and becoming the first mid-major team to win a national title since 1966.

So how was this not the worst Opening Day ever? The final score of the basketball game netted me $300 on my "squares" pool. If Duke was going to win, that was definitely the way to do it.

The Cubs get a day off today, which, sadly enough, it looks like they could use. They'll come back with Ryan Dempster on Wednesday in an effort to get their first win and wipe from our memories the debacle that was Opening Day.

Cubs lose

It's great that Geovany Soto lost 37 pounds in the offseason, but that's not the physical change that will lead to a successful 2010 season--it's the new 'do! The man's looking sharp, as you can see in the video below. And I'm going to use this as a reason to believe Soto will return to 2008 form. After all, what is the Cubs Convention for if not for fans to breathe in a healthy dose of unjustified optimism?

By the way, watch the video below if you haven't already:



The man is a walking advertisement for the Office of National Drug Control Policy.

"I used to be a little sluggish, used to be ... I wanted to take a nap."

Translation: "I used to go home after games and take a few bong rips."

"I have a lot of energy, I'm kind of wired all day. ... I'm active the whole day."

Translation: "I don't smoke pot any more."

Also weighing in ...

is Carlos Zambrano, who also showed up at the convention in great shape. He raved about the nutritionist and personal chef the Cubs hired, saying, 'The way to help this team is to stay healthy and be in good shape. The Cubs now have a nutritionist and a chef for us, and that's good. We can stay with that program and eat healthy and have a good year.'' (source: Tribune)

Players always sound right at the Cubs Convention. It's a fun, light-hearted atmosphere, and they're always going to say things like, "I was disappointed in (insert particular failure here), but you can tell (2010, 2011, etc.) is going to be different. (Insert GM here) has really made some great (trades/free agent pick-ups), and we're ready to have a great season."

But the Cubs aren't just sounding good this year, they're looking good. And that's nice to see.

The good, bad and ugly of the Cubs' offseason thus far

The good:

It's good to know they can share a mic, since they'll now be sharing a professional sports franchise. And it's interesting to note that even when viewed in a still, photographic format, Todd looks like a douche.

The transition of team ownership into the hands of its eighth owner, the Ricketts family. There's something soothing about real, live human beings sitting there and talking about the team. Something comforting about the fact that the owners don't have an opening and a closing price.

The new owners pretty much said all the things you'd expect at their opening press conference (save one super awkward moment when Tom's brother Todd said Jim Hendry "knows way better than" to eat part of Milton Bradley's contract. He then winked (seriously), cementing his status as The Really Creepy Brother Who Will Keep Trying to Share His Ideas with the Other Siblings but They'll Just Nod and Not Really Pay Any Attention to Him, Which They've Probably Been Doing for Twenty Years Because, as Was Just Explained, He's Creepy. And Weird.).

And while growing up watching and rooting for a team does not by any means guarantee that you will be successful as an owner of that team, it is really nice that Tom used to live just beyond the Wrigley walls and spent many a summer day in the bleachers. I have no doubt that he'll treat the Cubs as a business, because he has to. But I also have no doubt that part of him will treat the Cubs as his favorite team, a team that he desperately wants to win the World Series. And that's a very good thing.

Also a good thing is that according to the Windy City Times, Tom's sister Laura Ricketts is the first openly gay owner in all of American professional sports. I think that's a pretty neat "first" for the Cubs to be a part of.

The bad:

The decisions by Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to return to their perches at Busch Stadium for 2010. These guys continually enable the Cardinals to get way more bang than should be humanly possible for that much buck (2009: 17th highest payroll, 92 wins), and unfortunately there was never much more than a fleeting glimmer of hope that the two wouldn't return for next year.

Question now is, will the Cards pony up the BIG bucks for Matt Holliday? His agent, Scott Boras, has made a point of comparing him to Mark Teixeira, whom the Yankees gave eight years and $180 million last year.

The ugly:

Since when did Ted Lilly need shoulder surgery? That came as a bit of a surprise. Back by April, they say.

Most pitchers get a month of spring training to work their way up to regular action. So Lilly may not be at full strength until mid- or late May. Not a great development to begin the offseason, especially since Lilly was clearly the ace of the staff in 2009. If the season started tomorrow (and, of course, it doesn't, and things will likely change), the Cubs would come out of the gates with Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Marshall and Gorzelanny. Does this mean Hendry will need to seriously consider trying to re-sign Harden? Hurry back, Ted ...

What's on deck for the Cubs?

There are still home runs to be hit, strikes to be thrown, and rings to be won.

Just not at Wrigley Field.

For the Cubs, the sights are now squarely set on 2010. This season reminded many Cubs fans of the Cubs of old, and in fact many of the Cubs are getting old. But it's in with the new as owner Tom Ricketts takes over the controls, though he and Jim Hendry don't have a great deal of wiggle room given the big, backloaded contracts Hendry has passed out like candy corn over the last few years.

So where do the Cubs go from here? First, there are the free agents: Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and John Grabow.

There's no doubt Harden will test the free agent waters. I've said before that he's not worth big money and multiple years, but it's possible he won't find a suitor willing to give him either one. He's worth a mid-level, one-year deal. I think we all know that Hendry took white out to Gregg's name in the media guide right around mid-August. I would definitely welcome back Reed Johnson, who was of course hurt in 2009 but plays hard and is a solid platoon player or starter if need be. And Hendry's already working on a two-year deal for Grabow, who had success in his 30 games with the Cubs this year.

You can already fill out a good deal of the 2010 depth chart in pen:

• Soto isn't going anywhere, but needs to show up in 2008 shape so he can get back to 2008 form.
  
• Lee and Ramirez are set at the corners.
  
• Theriot seems a safe bet to be at short.
• Fukudome figures to be in center or right.
• Soriano's contract is unmoveable, so you can write his name in the spot marked "LF" (please let his bum knee be the reason he flailed away at the plate like a Little Leaguer and played left field like a Little Leaguer who's only on the team because his dad's the coach).

So second base and right field/center field are on Hendry's to-do list. With little payroll flexibility and what would seem to be an offense bound for a rebound, I still like the idea of Andres Blanco getting a shot at second. He would bat eighth and likely provide little pop, but he's the best defender on the Cubs' 40-man roster and it's always important to have good glove work up the middle. Free agent options include Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Again, I'd prefer the Cubs stay in-house at 2B.

Suggesting that there's a question mark in the outfield of course assumes that Hendry is able to pull off an offseason magic trick worthy of a show on the Vegas strip: unloading Milton Bradley and the $21 million remaining on his contract. But even though Hendry is behind the 8 ball and every GM in baseball knows it, he's also handcuffed and has almost no choice but to ship him out.

If Hendry hopes to make an upgrade somewhere, outfield would seem to be the place to do it. The free agent class in center includes Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli and Corey Patterson (kidding). In right, you've got Bobby Abreu, Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns (if his option is not picked up), and others.

If the Cubs choose instead to spend their money on a second baseman and/or bullpen help, there are in-house options in the outfield: Reed Johnson in center and Fukudome in right is one of them. Jake Fox is another option in right, perhaps in a platoon with Fukudome. Will Fox hurt the team with his glove? Most likely. But Bradley was no stud himself, and we all saw Soriano bumble his way around left, so how much of a drop-off would it really be?

With the chatter about Zambrano hitting the trade block cooling down, the rotation would figure to be Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and either Marshall, Gorzelanny or Samardzija (my money would
be on Gorzelanny).

And last, but definitely not least, the bullpen. Carlos Marmol will be the closer, having finished the season with 12 consecutive saves. Gorzelanny and Guzman should be the G-Men in the setup role. Aaron Heilman is (unfortunately) likely to be in the mix as well, along with Marshall and Samardzija (or Gorzelanny). Other unprovens will have the opportunity to make the squad, including Justin Berg (12 IP, 1 BB, 0.75 ERA), Esmailin Caridad (19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA), and Jeff Stevens (bad).

As always, the free agent market provides an array of options, including Chad Cordero, Danys Baez, Joe Beimel and Darren Oliver (the last two being lefties). Signing relievers will always and forever be a complete crapshoot (see: Brad Lidge in '08 vs. '09, or B.J. Ryan, or Ryan Franklin coming out of nowhere).

Hendry doesn't have much choice but to bring back a near mirror image of the 2009 team. But it's reasonable to assume it will be one of those goofy, distorted mirror images. Zambrano with just nine wins? Soriano with only 55 RBI? Ramirez missing half the season?

You can accuse me of being overly optimistic, but I think the Cubs have a very good chance of turning things around without turning the roster over. The fact is, there's over $130 million of talent in their dugout, and a whole slew of players fell so far below their career averages in 2009 that, well, their career averages now look nothing like they did heading into the season. In this case, what comes down must go up.

The off-field action will all go down starting in just about a month. Players can declare free agency starting 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series, and Hendry's real work will begin at that time. Hopefully his work will lead to Cubs fans enjoying playoff baseball one year from today instead of looking forward to 2011.

And the winner is ...

Well, the season's over. Let's see, something positive to say ...

Ah, I got it: It wasn't a June swoon that cost the Cubs!

Unfortunately, it was an August one that did them in. While the Cardinals got as hot as the color of their jerseys, the Cubs struggled and stumbled and sank to second place on their way to a disappointing 83-78 season.

Given the expectations, the injuries, the horrific fundamentals, the apparent lack of passion, and the fact that the Cubs never really put together any real good stretches save when they beat up on the Nationals and Reds right after the All-Star break, this was one of the least enjoyable Cubs seasons I can recall. Again, I factor expectations into the equation here. Sure, Cubs fans always look forward to each season with rose-colored glasses, but deep down, we often know it ain't gonna happen. This year, everyone just knew it was going to happen. So, wha' happened?

What happened is that Soriano batted 37 points below his career average and had just 55 RBI. What happened is that Geovany Soto had a sophomore slump that Van Wilder would be proud of. What happened was that Zambrano and Dempster combined to win 11 fewer games than they did in 2008. What happened was that Aaron Miles was one of Lou's first options off the bench.

But you know all this already. What you don't know is how Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I did in our annual prediction challenge. And I know you're on the edge of your seat with anticipation.

But first, one more note about the 2009 season: Last Thursday's rainout resulted in the Cubs playing fewer than 162 games for the second straight season. The last time the Cubs went back-to-back seasons without playing 162 games was from 1984-87, when they played 161, 161, 160, and 161 games, respectively. The Cubs also played just 160 games in 1991, and played an extra game in 1998 due to the play-in game versus the Giants.

And now, the results you've been waiting for ever since 12 seconds ago when you read the paragraph that indicated I was about to share with you the results of our annual prediction challenge:

Cubs wins
Brandon 92
Trevor 89
Andrew 90

Actual: 83

All three of us correctly assumed that the Cubs wouldn't be able to match their gaudy win total from 2008. We did not assume, however, that they would tread water most of the season and finish just a touch above .500. Andrew is notorious for being pessimistic in our challenge, but this year it was Trevor's dire outlook on life and general hatred of all things Cubs that got him a win in the biggest category of all. I hope you're happy, Trevor. By the way, all three of us picked the Cubs to win the Central, but with the Cardinals having won 91 games, only my predicted total would have resulted in a division title. So I have no choice but to assign additional blame to Andrew for the Cubs' disappointing season. I don't know how you guys sleep at night.

Zambrano wins
Brandon 17
Trevor 17
Andrew 19

Actual: 9

It's almost as if Andrew underwent some sort of significant, life-changing experience that made him more optimistic. Perhaps around, say, April 4 of this year? Well, that optimism is admirable and should generally be applauded, but for the purposes of this prediction challenge, it's really biting him in the ass. Trevor and I split this one despite our stunningly inaccurate prediction of 17 wins.

Fukudome average
Brandon .274
Trevor .271
Andrew .280

Actual: .259

Remember how at the end of last year we all said the Cubs had overpaid for Fukudome? That he was just an average player despite his $12 million salary? Well, we're all eating our words now--Fukudome raised his average two whole points this year! And ... wait for it ... he hit one more home run! Way to go, Kosuke! Trevor wins again on account of his xenophobia and attendant hatred of Asian people.

Gregg saves
Brandon 31
Trevor 29
Andrew 23

Actual: 23

Gotta hand it to Andrew on this one. We'll never know if he thought the Cubs would win a lot of blowouts and therefore deflate Gregg's save total, or if he looked into his crystal ball and saw a glimpse of Gregg being demoted in favor of Carlos Marmol. Either way, he nailed it.

Soto home runs
Brandon 29
Trevor 27
Andrew 24

Actual: 11

Um, what the hell? We all predicted Soto would hit at least twice the number of home runs that he did. Eleven? Seriously? You know who hit more than 11 home runs? Will Venable. Sorry, not familiar? How about Laynce Nix? That guy doesn't even know how to spell his name! Neither does Jonny Gomes, but he outhomered Soto too. Did you have the legendary Miguel Montero on your fantasy team? More home runs than Soto. You get the point. Andrew takes this sorry excuse for a category.

Marshall wins
Brandon 12
Trevor 12
Andrew 10

Actual: 3

If the last one was a sorry excuse for a category, what does that make this one? We all had Marshall ticketed for a strong season as the fifth starter, but he went to the 'pen and Randy Wells put the fifth starter spot on lockdown. Of pitchers who threw at least 60 innings for the Cubs, only Carlos Marmol had fewer wins (2) than Marshall. What was I saying about Andrew and his newfound optimism? The optimism tank was apparently emptied right about halfway through his 2009 predictions.

Team double plays turned
Brandon 149
Trevor 128
Andrew 128

Actual: 144

With a few games to go, I thought I might actually nail this prediction exactly. But the Cubs didn't turn any twin killings in their last two games, and the rainout took away another game. This could have gone down as the greatest prediction in the history of sports ... but no. Still, thank God for this category; it stands as my only solo victory on the year.

Final tally:

Trevor: 3
Andrew: 3
Brandon: 2

We also predicted the final NL Central standings, but that doesn't solve matters as all three of us flipped the Cubs and Cardinals and then accurately predicted two other teams while flip-flopping two others. Oh well, a tie it is!

Congratulations to Trevor and Andrew on their Debbie Downer, tag team effort as they double-handedly ruined the Cubs season for reasons that are not readily apparent to me. Congratulations to all others who participated (me), and best of luck next year!

Should I stay or should I go? The Jim Hendry version

Jim Hendry is under contract for three more years, but you'd never know it with all the recent chatter about his potential ousting. Having made more bad moves in the offseason than did Tom DeLay on "Dancing with the Stars," his future is filled with more question marks than a Spanish exam. The Trib's Rick Morrissey says he deserves another shot; the Sun-Times says the Milton Bradley signing may have sealed his fate.

There's no doubt this past offseason was a bust. From The Useless One (Joey Gathright) and The Awful One (Aaron Miles) to the trade of Mark DeRosa and the signing of Milton Bradley, Hendry turned a great, 97-win team into a slightly above average, 83-win team. It was a huge disappointment, no doubt, though they did finish five games over .500 and second in the NL Central. It was nice to see them on the right side of .500 for the third consecutive season, but with a $134 million payroll, that wasn't exactly the goal.

The decline wasn't all Hendry's fault: there were injuries, including those to Ramirez, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly and others. There were unexpectedly subpar seasons, including those by Soriano and Soto.

But Hendry does deserve the lion's share of the blame, having built a team unprepared to weather these storms. He removed leadership by trading DeRosa and letting Kerry Wood walk (though I'm still okay with the latter). He failed to build a reliable bullpen. He has now spent $78 million on average/terrible left-handed right fielders over the last two years.

The Cubs' team ERA actually improved slightly from last year, down to 3.84 from 3.87. And on defense, they committed six more errors this year versus last. But the big problem (if you hadn't yet figured this out after 161 games) was the offense: 707 runs this year after leading the league with 855 last season.

In the general managing world, Hendry didn't just strike out on 2009, he got the golden sombrero. But just as a player or manager can't be judged by one season alone, neither can a general manager. I think it's only fair that new owner Tom Ricketts look at Hendry's entire resume before deciding his fate. At the moment, Hendry's name is synonymous with Milton Bradley's, but that doesn't tell the entire story.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled a detailed history of Jim Hendry's moves as Cubs GM. It was posted last July, so it doesn't include the debacle of this past offseason, but it's interesting to look at the many moves he has made since Andy MacPhail promoted him seven years ago.

Can you recall Hendry's first move as Cubs GM? Of course you can: he traded Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen. Who could forget that? But wait. That trade wasn't as insignificant as it sounds. Less than five months later, Hendry traded Hermansen and Todd Hundley for Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros, a move that helped lead to a division title for the Cubs. It was also the first sign that Jim Hendry might be a direct descendant of King Midas. This is the kind of rabbit Hendry will need to pull out of his hat when it comes to unloading Milton Bradley.

But it was 2003's trade deadline fleecing of Pirates GM Dave Littlefield that really ignited a love affair between Hendry and Cubs fans: Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and Bobby Hill for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, and cash! Littlefield then gave the Cubs Randall "Sausage Beater" Simon a few weeks later (that nickname sounds dirty, but in case you've forgotten the incident that begot such a nickname, please click the link).

In an attempt to out-GM himself, Hendry pulled off a Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee trade in the 2003 offseason. He also got Michael Barrett for Damian Miller and traded for Nomar at the 2004 deadline, and the Cubs won 89 games that year, though they choked away a playoff spot in the final week of the season.

Hendry has other good moves he can point to, such as trading Sammy Sosa after he turned his back on the Cubs (and integrity), and getting rid of Michael Barrett at the right time. He also made mistakes beyond those of this past offseason, such as giving up three young pitchers for Juan Pierre and giving away Greg Maddux for Cesar "♪ You can ring my be-e-ell, You can ring my bell ♪ " Izturis.

Those are the specifics, here's the bottom line: Hendry has produced three NL Central titles in his seven years at the helm. The Cubs hadn't seen that kind of consistent success since 1938 when they accomplished the exact same feat. In fact, the Cubs have made the playoffs just 16 times in their long history, and Hendry has been behind the desk for three of them. The 182 wins in 2007 and 2008 were the most in back-to-back seasons for the Cubs since 1935-36. It's fine to lay the blame for 2009 at Hendry's feet, but you also have to give him some credit for the products he put on the field in the years prior.

Expectations-wise, 2009 was a disaster of a campaign for the Cubs. But the "W" flag still flew 83 times, and we've also seen some promise from young players such as Randy Wells, Jake Fox and Andres Blanco.

Hendry has created some serious work for whomever is in charge this offseason, but in my opinion, he's earned the chance to do that work himself. As Tom Ricketts takes over the helm, I hope he'll keep Jim Hendry on board.

Hey look, I found something: it's Jim Hendry's cojones

By suspending Milton Bradley for the rest of the season, Jim Hendry made an important statement: there is a line--albeit one that is very hard to cross--when it comes to things you can get away with in a Cubs uniform. Perhaps this step will lead to a change in clubhouse culture.

Zambrano refused to hydrate himself for years, and nothing happened. He told the media he's not a huge fan of doing his abdominal and core workouts, and nothing happened. It took Piniella three years to stop cowtowing to the World's Worst Leadoff Hitter. And Bradley was treated with kid gloves all season despite disrespecting the media, fighting with his manager and generally acting like a spoiled brat who didn't get his favorite toy even though Piniella has sent him and his 12 HR and 40 RBI out to right field nearly every day.

After taking himself out of Saturday's game, refusing to pinch-hit and arguing with hitting coach Von Joshua, combined with recent comments about "negativity" surrounding the team and hoping each home game goes only nine innings so he can get home as quickly as possible, Hendry finally decided enough was enough. His most recent comments don't constitute his worst offense as a Cub, but they were the proverbial straw that broke the Cub's back.

With Hendry laying down the law, his teammates taking Hendry's side, and the Tribune asking if Bradley is the worst free agent signing in Chicago sports history, the Milton Bradley Experiment is officially over, having exploded into a million little Milton pieces. But Hendry's real work will begin in the offseason when he tries to unload as much as he can of the $21 million left on Bradley's contract. Hendry has worked some magic in the past, but this is going to be like trying to sell cancer to a healthy person.

Speaking of healthy people, Milton Bradley is not one. I'm not trying to be funny--I think Bradley has some serious issues. He always thinks everyone's out to get him and he turns every molehill (even ones that are seen only by him) into a mountain. When I mistakenly said before the season that he might add some much needed personality to the Cubs' clubhouse, I thought he was a character who would say what was on his mind. I didn't realize his mind was a bit warped and that NONE of the things on his mind were EVER positive.

So Hendry made a big mistake by signing Milton Badly, and now he faces an uphill battle in his attempt to rectify the situation for next year. At least he's taken a step in the right direction, boosting clubhouse morale by removing this cancer for the remainder of the season.

Z ya later?

The Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan stated that the Cubs "plan on shopping" Carlos Zambrano this offseason. Big Z has three years and about $53 million remaining on his contract, along with a possible player option for 2013. He also has a no-trade clause.

I say: shop away. Zambrano's $18.75 million annual salary is ninth in baseball and second only to Johan Santana among pitchers. He's paid like a top tier, top notch starter who deserves to be at the top of one of the top rotations in baseball. And while his numbers are consistently good, they're not that good.

The knock on Z is generally his inability to pile up wins or have that dominant 20-win season, but his wins have actually ranked pretty highly over the last few years:

Year------W------MLB rank
2009------8-----------81
2008-----14-----------26
2007-----18-----------7
2006-----16-----------8

But we all know how misleading wins and losses can be. Case in point: Clayton Kershaw is 11th in the majors with a sparkling 2.89 ERA, and has just eight wins to show for it; Ricky Nolasco is last among qualifying starting pitchers with his gaudy 5.46 ERA--he's got 11 wins.

Let's look at how Zambrano has stacked up in ERA and innings pitched in recent years:

Year--------ERA------MLB rank
2009--------3.77-----------33
2008--------3.91-----------43
2007--------3.95-----------40
2006--------3.41------------8


Year--------IP--------MLB rank
2009--------143-----------82
2008--------188-----------53
2007--------216-----------12
2006--------214-----------22

Again, these numbers aren't bad at all. He finished in the top 25 in innings pitched twice in the last four years, had the eighth best ERA in the majors in 2006, and has never in his career finished a full season with an ERA over four.

However, each of those rankings that are over 30 scare me. Ranking outside the top 30 essentially means that on average, every team in the majors has a pitcher who's outperforming you. The fact that the Cubs' so-called "horse" has ranked 53rd and 82nd, respectively, in innings pitched the last two years doesn't exactly make you thrilled that he's making over $500,000 every time he takes the mound. His ERA over the last three years has been solid, no doubt, but has not ranked in the top 30 in any of those seasons.

Let me remind you: he's making over $18 million a year. That's more than CC Sabathia, more than Cliff Lee, more than Chris Carpenter ... you get the idea.

I haven't even mentioned his tendency to get tossed from games, his recent admission that he isn't exactly 100 percent committed to his workout regimen, and his propensity to lose his cool when things don't go his way on the mound.

And look at what some top pitchers have netted teams in recent years (with an assist to Jerry Crasnick at ESPN):

2002: Indians trade Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew to Montreal for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens.

Sizemore has made three All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves, and Cliff Lee's been, you know, okay. They shipped Phillips to the Reds, but he's averaged 21 HR and 84 RBI in five seasons in the majors.

2004: Oakland sends Mark Mulder to St. Louis for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.

Billy Beane got the better pitcher, though he traded Haren to Arizona three years later. Haren is 13-8 with a 2.82 ERA this season. Kiko Calero had a couple good years out of the 'pen, and Barton hasn't proven himself at the major league level yet, but is still just 24 years old.

2008: Baltimore sends Erik Bedard to Seattle for outfielder Adam Jones and pitchers George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler.

Jones made the All-Star team this year at age 23, Sherrill had enough success as closer that the Dodgers traded for him at this year's trade deadline, and Tillman has had a great season at Triple-A.

These trades don't always work out (see: Tim Hudson's trade to Atlanta in 2004), but GMs are often willing to overpay for an ace, or even a perceived one. There's no question that Zambrano would have to bring quite a haul to make it worth Jim Hendry's while, but there's nothing wrong with window shopping.

Look, the Cubs could do a lot worse than Carlos Zambrano at the top of their rotation. And if the bell rings for the 2010 season and Big Z is on the mound in Atlanta (where the Cubs will play the Braves on Opening Day), I won't have a problem with that. But Z is a sometimes a joker, often a king, and too rarely an ace. If Hendry can obtain a king's ransom for him and open up some room in the payroll for, say, a second baseman, I wouldn't be opposed.

Worst deadline pickup?

That would be Jarrod Washburn. Acquired by the Tigers at the deadline from the Mariners, the lefty struggled in six August starts, going 1-2 with a 6.81 ERA. September hasn't been much better for the veteran, as he allowed three earned runs in five innings against the Royals and then, with an opportunity to redeem himself against the AL's worst team, he allowed four runs in just one inning of work yesterday.

To sum up: 2.64 ERA with the Mariners, 7.33 ERA with the Tigers.

A second-best season, a statistic, and a surgery

Monday: Cubs 2, Brewers 0


Derrek Lee now has seven home runs in his last 10 games, and has essentially guaranteed himself the second best season of his career. His 33 home runs rank second behind the 46 he smashed in '05, and his 98 RBI are tied for second, also behind '05 when he knocked in 107. His .303 average, by the way, ranks third behind '05 and the .317 average he had in '07.

Kudos to Ryan Dempster, who reached double digits in wins for the fifth time in his career, and has now allowed zero earned runs in three of his last five starts. Dempster is the third Cubs starter to get his 10th win, and both Harden (9 wins) and Zambrano (8) are within striking distance.

***ALERT*** The following statistic took me FOREVER to find, so please read it. Thank you for your cooperation.

The Cubs have not had five pitchers with double-digit wins since 1972. Their rotation when they accomplished the feat?

Fergie Jenkins
Burt Hooton
Milt Pappas
Bill Hands
Rick Reuschel

Think about that. The Cubs very well could accomplish a rather impressive pitching feat, one that requires both talent and depth. Going into the season, no one would have compared this year's rotation to the one listed above (and in fairness, that rotation combined for 69 wins, whereas this year's has 50 right now), but it might become the first group with five double-digit winners in nearly 40 years. And yet the team is just six games over .500 and has had quite a disappointing season.

See you in 2010

Alfonso Soriano will have knee surgery today and is out for the season. First Urlacher, and now this?

Okay, so maybe this news won't make quite as many waves in the Chicago sports world as did Urlacher's dislocated wrist. In fact, one could argue that this is good news:

1) Piniella has coddled Soriano for the last three years, and no doubt he'd be playing if he were medically cleared to do so. But the surgery means Piniella can't possibly put him in the lineup any more. That will give guys like Fuld, Scales and Fox the opportunity to get some audition time down the stretch.
2) Maybe, just maybe Soriano's struggles at the plate and pathetic defensive performance this year were related to his knee problems. The fact that he needs surgery reinforces this possibility.
3) This goes back to the silver lining to the season that I mentioned earlier--several players, including Soriano and Zambrano, will have played fewer than normal innings this year, perhaps resulting in a healthy and reinvigorated 2010.

On the dangers of running

Quote of the Day

"I tried to catch the ball after I lost my balance, but I think the grass was too big."

-Alfonso Soriano

Having closely followed several sports for a couple decades, I've heard a lot of excuses. But grass being too big? That's definitely a new one. Never have I seen Soriano work harder than he apparently did in coming up with this reason for slipping and dropping a fly ball in Friday's loss to the White Sox.

Soriano will have arthroscopic knee surgery soon, and could be out for the rest of the season. Hallelujah!

If there's a silver lining in this terrible season, perhaps it's the fact that guys like Soriano, Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez have played a lot fewer innings than they normally would, and maybe this will help them come 2010. I didn't say it was a real great silver lining, but that's all I got.

Another preseason injury

Running back Kevin Jones is out for the season after injuring his ankle in the Bears' final preseason game. It's unfortunate that a guy the Bears signed to a two-year deal last offseason will miss the second of those two years. However, I'm a fan of Adrian Peterson, and this should significantly increase his chances of making the 53-man roster. Garrett Wolfe, a Northern Illinois alum, is the other option.

Are we sure Zambrano's not still hurt?

Sunday: Mets 4, Cubs 1


I don't ask that just to be cantankerous. I ask it for two reasons:

1) Zambrano hasn't just struggled in his two starts since coming off the DL, he's been lit up. Seven hits and eight runs in just 4.1 innings against the Nationals on Tuesday, and then 11 hits--including five straight at one point--in just 3.1 innings Sunday against the Mets. In total, he's allowed 18 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts. It looked like batting practice despite it being a cold day (57 degrees at game time) with the wind blowing in.

2) Big Z has an ego and a serious competitive streak. He, more than some players, is the type to fight through pain when perhaps he shouldn't.

If he is in fact feeling any lingering effects from his recent DL stint, the Cubs would be better served with Tom Gorzelanny taking the ball every fifth day. Zambrano isn't fooling anybody on the mound right now.

The Cubs offense, however, was fooled all day by Nelson Figueroa. They managed seven hits, all singles, and scarcely threatened to score after taking a 1-0 lead in the first.

And may I ask, what is with Cubs players swinging on 3-0 counts this year? It's a freakin' epidemic. Milton Bradley must have a clause in his contract requiring him to do so, and Derrek Lee has done so quite a bit this year, including once on Saturday and once on Sunday.

First of all, I'm not a big fan of swinging 3-0 no matter what. As a batter, you've worked hard to get the pitcher into a terrible count, and then you bail him out by swinging at the next pitch? But hey, I realize the pitcher often grooves one right down Broadway on 3-0, and if you can tee one up and drive it hard somewhere, that's understandable. But Bradley is 1-for-14 this year when he swings at a 3-0 pitch, and Derrek Lee flied out on 3-0 each of the last two days. And, yesterday, he did so with two men on and the Cubs' most clutch hitter, Aramis Ramirez, on deck. A potential bases loaded situation vanished when a normally patient hitter took a weak swing at a pitcher's pitch. I can understand Lou giving these guys the green light, but someone needs to tell them the green light doesn't work like a stoplight--you don't have to swing!

The Cubs fell to 3-3 on the homestand and to two games over .500 overall with just one more game to play until September.

News from the South Side


The White Sox appear poised to join the Cubs at the back end of Sportscenter. They're 1-6 on their current 10-game road trip. Ozzie Guillen berated his team with a barrage of expletive-filled Ozzieness after Saturday's performance in which they tallied one hit against Sergio Mitre and the Yankees. Jose Contreras got lit up again and has been demoted to the 'pen. And their supposed savior, Jake Peavy, left his most recent rehab start and will have his elbow examined.

The Sox remain in the hunt in the AL Central, sitting six games back of a mediocre Tigers team and 1.5 games back of the how-do-they-stay-in-the-race-every-single-year Twins. But the reality is, the Sox are two games under .500, and the butt-whooping they've received from the playoff caliber Red Sox and Yankees this week has shown their true colors--a home run-dependent, defensively challenged, pitching poor team in a piss poor division.

News from the East Side


Cutler silenced the boo birds--well, actually, I think the boo birds were pretty resilient. But Cutler did all he could, completing 16 of 21 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown in his return to Denver. Cutler vs. Orton was obviously the main event, but there were some great undercards as well.

Devin Hester brought back visions of 2008 when he backpedaled to the five yard line and fair caught a punt, but then reminded us of 2007 on another punt return with a great cutback move and a 54-yard return to the Denver four, leading to the go-ahead touchdown.

Adrian Peterson opened some eyes by averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 12 attempts, scoring a touchdown along the way. And that chemistry we've been hearing about between Cutler and Greg Olsen was evident as Cutler lasered a couple balls into Olsen's breadbasket (three catches, 47 yards total for Olsen).

Denver helped out the Bears defense quite a bit with some penalties (10 for 86 yards), but all in all it was a good night for Lovie Smith's squad. The Bears were facing the first of four consecutive 3-4 defensive schemes (including Cleveland in the final preseason game this week, then Green Bay and Pittsburgh in the first two regular season games), so they'll be seeing some familiar sights by the time the real games roll around.

Did you know ...

With a 4-1 loss on Sunday, the Pirates have now lost 21 straight games in Milwaukee. Twenty-one straight! That's the longest streak by one team over another at home since 1954 (Indians over the Orioles). I hope the Pirates players at least found some watering holes while in the beer haven known as Milwaukee.