As predicted, we predicted terribly

You might recall that Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I made our annual Cubs predictions last March. We predicted seven categories total; in five of them, all three predictions turned out to be higher than the actual result. So either the Cubs had a pathetic season in which they underperformed to an extreme degree, or all three of us are blindly optimistic fools with zero talent for predicting what will occur in a Cubs season. Or both. You know what, I think it's both.

Last year, Trevor and Andrew tied with three apiece while I had two.

*Actual result in parentheses

Cubs wins (75)

Trevor 88
Andrew 87
Brandon 86

Um ... yay? I don't feel good about benefiting from the Cubs' debacle of a season.

Had the Cubs won 86 games, the lowest of our three predictions, they would have lost the division by just three games and finished ahead of the Cardinals by two. Instead, they finished with the eighth-worst record in the majors. They were worse than teams such as the Astros, Brewers, Marlins and A's. They were even worse than the Mets. Not a great year.

Randy Wells wins (8)

Trevor 13
Brandon 11
Andrew 10

After winning 12 in his rookie season, Wells started five more games in 2010 but won only eight. His ERA went up by more than a point even though he actually gave up fewer hits/9 in 2010 compared to 2009. He was much less consistent this season--he had three starts of four innings or fewer.

Soto slugging percentage (.497)
Brandon .475
Andrew .445
Trevor .430

Here's the only category where we were all too pessimistic. Soto had a great bounce back season. While playing in only 105 games hurt his power numbers, his slash line was back to the level of his Rookie of the Year campaign. (Slash line is average/on-base/slugging.)

2008: .285/.364/.504

2010: .280/.393/.497

He also had a higher HR/AB ratio this season than in 2008. My win here puts me up 2-1 on Andrew.

Zambrano wins (11)
Trevor 20
Brandon 14
Andrew 14

Good guess, Trevor. No, really, I mean he averaged 11.5 wins over the previous two seasons and he's never won 20 in his life. As it turned out, Zambrano only started 20 games due to his time spent in the bullpen. 3-2 me over Andrew. (Trevor? You there?)

Derrek Lee HR (19)

Brandon 33
Trevor 33
Andrew 27

Ouch. If you don't count 2006 when he missed most of the season or 1999 when he only played 70 games, this was his lowest home run total since 1998. He also had his lowest average (.260) since 1998. His punishment? Being banished to the Orioles, where Cubs go to die.

By going low, Andrew's tied it at 3. This is dramatic ...

Carlos Marmol walks per 9 innings (6.0)
Brandon 6.4
Andrew 5.8
Trevor 5.1

This category was meant to be indicative of Marmol's season overall. As in: lots of walks per nine innings? He must be blowing lots of saves. Not many walks per nine innings? Wow, he must be doing well as the closer. Since I thought he was going to be a disaster as closer, I went high on this one. Turns out I lost to Andrew by just 0.2, yet Marmol had a great season. He was 38-for-43 in saves, had a 2.55 ERA and led the majors with a ridiculous 16 strikeouts per nine innings. He was in fact one of the few pieces of glitter on the turd that was the Cubs' season. And yet ... lots of walks. Oh well. You win this round, Andrew.

Theriot OBP (.321)
Andrew .380
Brandon .370
Trevor .365

And Trevor takes his first category despite being pretty far off on this one. A few players who had a higher OBP than Theriot in 2010:

Alfonso Soriano

Drew Stubbs

Ryan Ludwick

Yovani Gallardo

Dan Haren

Angel Pagan

Albert Pujols was walked intentionally 38 times in 2010. Theriot walked 41 times total. So anyways, Theriot is not good at getting on base. None of us realized that, but Trevor's guess sucked the least.

Final tally:

Andrew 4

Brandon 3

Trevor 1

Congratulations, Andrew! A tie for first last year and an outright victory this year. You are forcing me to slightly doubt my hypothesis that living in Texas for an extended period of time inevitably turns you into a babbling buffoon who wears spurs and eats your own poop. But only slightly.

Actual NL Central Standings

Reds

Cardinals

Brewers

Astros

Cubs

Pirates

Predicted
Brandon
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

Arbitration be damned: Cubs expected to sign Marmol to three-year deal

About a year ago, I may or may not have used the word "disaster" (I did) when predicting Carlos Marmol's level of success as closer in 2010. And now he has enough money to buy, like, his own island. Or five million Big Macs. Or something.

But that's what happens when you set a franchise record for strikeouts by a reliever and lead all major league relievers in K/9 innings and Wins Above Replacement (3.1).

Gordon Wittenmyer expects the Cubs and Marmol to agree today to a three-year deal worth around $23 million. The contract would buy out his final two years of arbitration and what would have been his first year of free agency.

Now if the Cubs can just give Marmol a few more save opportunities than they did last season ...

**UPDATE**Ken Rosenthal says the deal is done, and that it's in the $20 million range.

**UPDATE ON THE UPDATE**Marmol will earn$3.2 in 2011, $7 in 2012 and $9.8 in 2013.

Final Week awards: Will Quade still be in the dugout in 2011?

It was another strong week for the Cubs as they finished the season by taking three of four in San Diego followed by two of three against the Astros in Houston. It was the pitching that carried them this week: they allowed just 12 runs in the seven games. The Cubs finished the season 24-13 under Quade, and the strong finish left them just one game shy of fourth place in the Central (so close!).

Did the team's sudden turnaround earn Quade the nod as 2011 Cubs manager? What about Sandberg as manager and Quade as his bench coach? With the season officially in the books, we've got lots of time to discuss Hendry's offseason plans and the future of the franchise. But for now, the final awards of 2010:

Ryno of the Week: Take a look at this line: 14.2 IP, o ER, 2 H, 25 K

That's Carlos Marmol's September. Oh, and he was 13/13 in saves during the month as well. Just to make sure you took that all in: He allowed two hits in September, struck out 25, did not allow a run, and converted 13 straight saves. That's not fair. It ain't right. National League hitters could sue on the grounds that Marmol's pitching is a form of cruel and unusual punishment. He was 4/4 in the season's final week and converted his last 17 straight to finish the season.

Honorable mentions: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Casey Coleman, Andrew Cashner, Marlon Byrd, Blake DeWitt

Goat of the Week: It was a bad year all around and a bad final week for Xavier Nady. He went 6-for-23 last week with seven strikeouts, and batted just .256 (.306 OBP) with six home runs and 33 RBI in 317 AB this season.

Dishonorable mention: Kosuke Fukudome

Week 23 awards: It's all about divisional play (and guys named Carlos)

The Cubs are 5-10 against Houston this season with three games remaining against them. As you might painfully recall, they are also 5-10 against the lowly Pirates. Divisional play has killed the Cubs all year--they're 28-42 against the Central, just two games better than those Pirates. The first-place Reds have dominated divisional foes, going 42-25 including a 12-4 mark against the Cubs.

Granted, the Cubs' real problem is that they suck against, you know, everyone, but you absolutely have to take care of business in your own division if you want to have a successful season. On the bright side, the Cubs are 9-6 against the Brewers.

Ryno of the Week: Carlos Zambrano, you are one confusing son of a bitch. Not only did he post another good start this week, he went 8.2 innings. My eternal quibble with Zambrano is his high pitch counts and short outings, so I was amazed to see him come one out from a complete game. But since he couldn't get that final out, Carlos Marmol mopped up for one of his three saves this week. He's saved nine straight without a blown save, is 30/35 overall on the season, and still has a ridiculous K/9 inning rate of 15.83. You think he might get a raise on his $2.125 million salary in arbitration this winter? The Cubs may want to consider inking him to a long-term deal, says the Bleacher Report.

Honorable mentions: Ryan Dempster, Jeff Baker, Darwin Barney

Goat of the Week: He hadn't pitched in over a month, so this probably isn't real fair. But taking out the shortened start in which he had to leave due to injury, Carlos Silva has had four straight starts of five innings or less, and has allowed five runs or more in three of them. Five starts ago, his ERA was 2.96; now it's 4.22. In fairness, 10-6 with a 4.22 ERA is better than most of us would have predicted before the season.

Dishonorable mentions: Blake DeWitt, Alfonso Soriano

Here comes the slider

Carlos Marmol's wicked slider has resulted in a lot of fist pumps this season.

We've often heard of pitchers "adding a pitch," usually in the offseason. Sometimes a pitcher will develop a changeup or add a slider, etc. But Carlos Marmol has become more effective this season by eliminating his curveball.

The percentage of pitches thrown by Marmol that were curveballs, since 2007*:

2007: 20%
2008: 13%
2009: 11%
2010: 3%

But his fastball percentage has actually dropped as well, from 46% in 2007 to 41% this year. So what gives? For Marmol, it's all about the slider. His slider percentages:

2007: 31%
2008: 38%
2009: 43%
2010: 56%

To give you some perspective, he throws his slider more often than all but one pitcher in baseball: Luke Gregerson of the Padres (he's having success, too, with a 1.82 ERA in 22 games). I really noticed Marmol's tendency to rely on his slider a couple weeks ago, and now that I'm looking for it, it's completely obvious that he's using his slider to set up his fastball.

This frustrated me for a while. Usually when a pitcher relies heavily on his breaking ball, it's because he's struggling to control his fastball and has no choice but to depend on his secondary pitch. But with Marmol, it almost seems that he'd rather throw his nasty slider and then surprise the hitter with a fastball. And the fact is, it's working. He has a 1.52 ERA, has converted seven of his last eight save opportunities (the only one he blew was against the Rockies when he entered the game in the eighth with the bases already loaded), and his ridiculous 17.49 K/9 is easily the highest in the majors. The all-time leader in this statistic among relievers is Brad Lidge with 12.98 K/9.

So I'm certainly not complaining any more, but it is interesting to watch a pitcher dominate with his slider the way Marmol does. The man's fastball averages 95 mph, yet he throws it just 41 percent of the time. But I'm sure most hitters in the National League--at least those who have faced him this season--would tell you they'd rather see just about anything other than that slider.

*All data courtesy of FanGraphs

Rally caps a great day at Wrigley

AP Photo/Charles Cherney

While I'm stuck in "high of 65 degrees" Maryland, everyone back in Illinois has enjoyed unseasonably warm days in the 80s this week. And while it was slightly cooler at Wrigley--the game-time temp was a perfect 73--it must have been about as beautiful as it will ever be for a Cubs game in April. I've been to Opening Day games where the most popular vendors were selling hot chocolate and you could see more blankets in the stands than jerseys.

But the sun-splashed field wasn't the only sight for sore eyes; the action on said field was quite enjoyable as well. In the middle of the 8th, I thought to myself: "Many other teams could stage a rally in this situation. Why is it that it seems so impossible for the Cubs to do so?" The 2009 season conditioned me to expect pretty much any deficit to remain a deficit. But instead, the Cubs surprised me with a 2008-like rally, scoring four runs after the first two batters were retired. And I'll admit that I took some enjoyment from the fact that it all happened against LaTroy Hawkins.

Other positives of note:

• Ryan Theriot banged out four hits including a two-run single in the 8th inning. He also stole two bases for the second consecutive game.
• Tyler Colvin has now walked three times in the regular season after walking zero times this spring. Batting with two outs and runners at first and second in the 8th--a situation that could have easily brought out some over-aggression--Colvin drew a walk and eventually scored in the four-run inning.
• Kosuke Fukudome is off to another fast start: he knocked in the winning run and now has an OPS of 1.048 (.900+ is very good). Of course, we've seen this movie before. Will Fukudome be able to avoid the mid-season slump we've become accustomed to?
  
• Marlon Byrd made a great throw to nail a runner trying to go from first to third. (In contrast was Soriano's outfield play--he bobbled a ball to turn a double into a triple and later misplayed a ball off the wall.)
• Carlos Marmol has so far proved me wrong. His last two save opportunities have produced the following combined line: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 6 K. Six batters faced, six strikeouts. That'll do, Carlos, that'll do.

Randy Wells was cruising early in the game but lost his mojo when he walked pitcher Dave Bush with two down in the 5th. Newly recalled Jeff Gray had a rough 2010 debut, but got the win due to the Cubs' rally (Reason No. 64,507 that wins and losses are absurd statistics).

So the Cubs have their first series victory in the books. How about adding their first sweep with a win today?

First week illustrates Cubs' strengths and weaknesses

Though it's an admittedly small sample size, the first week (and a day) of Cubs baseball revealed a few positives and a couple big negatives:

Positives

Starting pitching
After Zambrano's horrible Opening Day, Dempster, Wells, Silva, Zambrano and Gorzelanny each provided a quality start. Taking out Opening Day, the Cubs' starters had a 1.44 ERA from Wednesday through Sunday. While the back end guys have pitched just one game each, both against Cincinnati, Silva and Gorzo combined to pitch 12 innings and allow just one earned run. If one of these two can come anywhere close to their early success over the entire season, the fifth starter won't be nearly the black hole some feared it would be. In addition, hopefully one of them can provide a boost to the beleaguered bullpen once Lilly returns.

The closer
It's going to be a while before I'm not extremely nervous when Carlos Marmol enters a game with a precarious 9th inning lead, but it must be noted that he converted his first two save opportunities of the season and didn't allow a run in the process. He was very impressive on Saturday, striking out the side to preserve a 4-3 lead.

Hitting for power
The Cubs' 11 home runs ties them for third most in the majors. Ramirez, Byrd and Baker have two each, and Colvin showed his pop with a long home run in his first at-bat of the season. Paging Geovany Soto, paging Geovany Soto ...

Negatives

Hitting for anything other than power
Unless the ball leaves the yard, the Cubs can't seem to get much done on offense: they had the fewest hits of any team in the majors prior to Monday. The Cubs stranded 25 men on Friday and Sunday combined, and left the bases loaded in the 1st inning Sunday after loading them up with nobody out against a pitcher who had never before pitched professional baseball, meaning major league or minor league. On both Opening Day and Saturday, they scored all of their runs via the long ball. In yesterday's nine-run outburst, all but two runs came on home runs.

Middle relief
Lo, that middle relief. We knew heading into the season that it was a potential problem, and unfortunately it's a BIG problem. The relievers have a 6.30 ERA, ranking them 24th in the majors. They've also walked 13 guys in 20 innings, which is unacceptable.

Remember in 2007 when the bullpen struggled early as Lou tried to figure out where each guy belonged? Well, with a lot of youngsters in the 'pen this year, perhaps some similar experimentation will be required. Whether he'll be able to create a reliable bridge to Carlos Marmol remains to be seen. While Esmailin Caridad has decent stuff, he can't control his slider at all right now and is trying to get by with only a fastball. I don't care if you throw 150 mph (he doesn't), that's not going to work.

Marmol avoids arbitration, but will Theriot do the same?

MLB.com's Carrie Muskat shares with us that Carlos Marmol and the Cubs have settled on the midway point between his and the team's respective salary figures; Marmol will make $2.125 million this season.

Ryan Theriot is the only arbitration-eligible player remaining for the Cubs. While Hendry has never gone to arbitration--and no Cubs GM has done so since Larry Himes and Mark Grace duked it out in 1993--Bruce Miles feels that this streak is about to come to an end. Theriot, 30, made $500,000 last season but is asking for $3.4 million this year. The Cubs have offered $2.6 million.

Miles said on 670 The Score this weekend that Hendry has always been rather fair with arb-eligible players (or even overly generous, some might say), and that for Theriot to ask for his salary to multiply ninefold is something he won't stand for. Theriot, on the other hand, might have some lingering bad feelings from way back in 2006 when he was 26 years old but still stuck in Triple-A despite putting up solid numbers.

It is often bad blood that leads to arbitration in the first place, and its usually badder blood that results from the no holds barred meetings. Let's hope Hendry can keep the Cubs' long streak alive.

Keep in mind that if the case goes to arbitration, there's no middle ground--the arbitrator will decide on one of the two salary figures. Check out Miles' piece to get a sneak peek at what that meeting might look like.

Hat tip: MLB Trade Rumors

What's on deck for the Cubs?

There are still home runs to be hit, strikes to be thrown, and rings to be won.

Just not at Wrigley Field.

For the Cubs, the sights are now squarely set on 2010. This season reminded many Cubs fans of the Cubs of old, and in fact many of the Cubs are getting old. But it's in with the new as owner Tom Ricketts takes over the controls, though he and Jim Hendry don't have a great deal of wiggle room given the big, backloaded contracts Hendry has passed out like candy corn over the last few years.

So where do the Cubs go from here? First, there are the free agents: Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and John Grabow.

There's no doubt Harden will test the free agent waters. I've said before that he's not worth big money and multiple years, but it's possible he won't find a suitor willing to give him either one. He's worth a mid-level, one-year deal. I think we all know that Hendry took white out to Gregg's name in the media guide right around mid-August. I would definitely welcome back Reed Johnson, who was of course hurt in 2009 but plays hard and is a solid platoon player or starter if need be. And Hendry's already working on a two-year deal for Grabow, who had success in his 30 games with the Cubs this year.

You can already fill out a good deal of the 2010 depth chart in pen:

• Soto isn't going anywhere, but needs to show up in 2008 shape so he can get back to 2008 form.
  
• Lee and Ramirez are set at the corners.
  
• Theriot seems a safe bet to be at short.
• Fukudome figures to be in center or right.
• Soriano's contract is unmoveable, so you can write his name in the spot marked "LF" (please let his bum knee be the reason he flailed away at the plate like a Little Leaguer and played left field like a Little Leaguer who's only on the team because his dad's the coach).

So second base and right field/center field are on Hendry's to-do list. With little payroll flexibility and what would seem to be an offense bound for a rebound, I still like the idea of Andres Blanco getting a shot at second. He would bat eighth and likely provide little pop, but he's the best defender on the Cubs' 40-man roster and it's always important to have good glove work up the middle. Free agent options include Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Again, I'd prefer the Cubs stay in-house at 2B.

Suggesting that there's a question mark in the outfield of course assumes that Hendry is able to pull off an offseason magic trick worthy of a show on the Vegas strip: unloading Milton Bradley and the $21 million remaining on his contract. But even though Hendry is behind the 8 ball and every GM in baseball knows it, he's also handcuffed and has almost no choice but to ship him out.

If Hendry hopes to make an upgrade somewhere, outfield would seem to be the place to do it. The free agent class in center includes Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli and Corey Patterson (kidding). In right, you've got Bobby Abreu, Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns (if his option is not picked up), and others.

If the Cubs choose instead to spend their money on a second baseman and/or bullpen help, there are in-house options in the outfield: Reed Johnson in center and Fukudome in right is one of them. Jake Fox is another option in right, perhaps in a platoon with Fukudome. Will Fox hurt the team with his glove? Most likely. But Bradley was no stud himself, and we all saw Soriano bumble his way around left, so how much of a drop-off would it really be?

With the chatter about Zambrano hitting the trade block cooling down, the rotation would figure to be Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and either Marshall, Gorzelanny or Samardzija (my money would
be on Gorzelanny).

And last, but definitely not least, the bullpen. Carlos Marmol will be the closer, having finished the season with 12 consecutive saves. Gorzelanny and Guzman should be the G-Men in the setup role. Aaron Heilman is (unfortunately) likely to be in the mix as well, along with Marshall and Samardzija (or Gorzelanny). Other unprovens will have the opportunity to make the squad, including Justin Berg (12 IP, 1 BB, 0.75 ERA), Esmailin Caridad (19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA), and Jeff Stevens (bad).

As always, the free agent market provides an array of options, including Chad Cordero, Danys Baez, Joe Beimel and Darren Oliver (the last two being lefties). Signing relievers will always and forever be a complete crapshoot (see: Brad Lidge in '08 vs. '09, or B.J. Ryan, or Ryan Franklin coming out of nowhere).

Hendry doesn't have much choice but to bring back a near mirror image of the 2009 team. But it's reasonable to assume it will be one of those goofy, distorted mirror images. Zambrano with just nine wins? Soriano with only 55 RBI? Ramirez missing half the season?

You can accuse me of being overly optimistic, but I think the Cubs have a very good chance of turning things around without turning the roster over. The fact is, there's over $130 million of talent in their dugout, and a whole slew of players fell so far below their career averages in 2009 that, well, their career averages now look nothing like they did heading into the season. In this case, what comes down must go up.

The off-field action will all go down starting in just about a month. Players can declare free agency starting 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series, and Hendry's real work will begin at that time. Hopefully his work will lead to Cubs fans enjoying playoff baseball one year from today instead of looking forward to 2011.

Stop the presses

Friday: Cubs 6, Reds 4

With two clutch hits by Aramis Ramirez, a home run by Geovany Soto, and four shutout innings by Aaron Heilman, Esmailin Caridad and Carlos Marmol, the Cubs pulled to within 10.5 games of the Cardinals, who were denied their third 15-game winner as Joel Pineiro was outdueled by Jair Jurrjens in a 1-0 loss.

Why do I even take the time to mention how far back the Cubs are in the standings? Because while it took 39 days and 71 combined games, the Cubs finally gained ground on the Cardinals for the first time since August 3. If we keep up this pace, we'll catch 'em by 2012 for sure!

Getting closer to being the closer

Wednesday: Cubs 8, Pirates 5


I say this very, very tentatively (please read slowly for effect): perhaps the Cubs have found their closer for 2010. I sort of twitched when I typed that, knowing the stomach-churning, hair-graying things that Carlos Marmol is capable of. But he's now 7-for-7 in save opportunities since being anointed the closer, and even more importantly, he's been throwing strikes. Eight of his 11 pitches were in the zone in his perfect ninth yesterday, and 11 of his 13 pitches found the zone in his perfect inning of work on Monday.

If Marmol can keep up the good work next year, Hendry (or whoever is GM) can get to work solidifying the rest of the bullpen instead of having to spend a bunch of money on a hit-or-miss closer (e.g., even the infallible Brad Lidge of '08 has an ERA upwards of seven this year).

While it obviously isn't going to result in a playoff appearance this year, the deadline trade the Cubs made is looking pretty good right about now. The Cubs hit Kevin Hart around pretty good yesterday (and he doled out six free passes), and he has struggled mightily with the Pirates to the tune of a 1-5 record and a 6.46 ERA.

Additionally, John Grabow has expressed an interest in remaining with the Cubs beyond '09, and Tom Gorzelanny may do the same (if the Cubs believe he can contribute).

Could the Pirates be any nicer to the Cubs? We've built up a 9-2 record against them this year after a 14-4 record last year, plus the aforementioned trade that's looking like a win for the Cubs. And I won't even mention the time Hendry fleeced them at the deadline in '03.

And lastly: way to go, Micah Hoffpauir. After going deep in back-to-back games, Hoffpauir has reached double digits in home runs and has also driven in 28 runs. Those stats, when fleshed out over a full season's worth of at-bats, translate to 24 HR and 62 RBI.

Lee, Lilly take off against Astros

Wednesday: Cubs 2, Astros 0

How rude of Derrek Lee. And this after Fontenot turned in SportsCenter's #1 play earlier in the game.

Lilly and Marmol combined to post shutout number four on the year for the Cubs, vaulting them out of a tie for last place in the NL in that category. The others were Ted Lilly over the Rockies 4-0, Ryan Dempster over the Dodgers 7-0, and Randy Wells over Houston 12-0. It was good to see Lilly get the win, his 10th, after he went 0-1 in August despite a stellar 1.86 ERA. The Cubs scored just eight runs in his three August starts.

Wednesday wasn't much different, as a two-run homer by Derrek Lee was all the offense could muster. In fact, the four through eight hitters (Bradley, Fox, Fontenot, Baker, Hill) were a combined 0-for-14. But it was enough for Teddy Roosevelt Lilly, as he dominated the 'Stros with eight innings, four hits, no walks and five strikeouts. He's now 7-1 with a 1.73 ERA at home in 2009.

I said yesterday that if there's been one bright spot for the Cubs this season, it's Randy Wells. I stand by that, but if there have been two bright spots for the Cubs this year, the other is Derrek Lee. His home run was his 27th, and with six more he would have his highest career total outside of 2005 when he hit 46.

On top of that, the two RBI gave him 90 on the season, matching last year's total. With nine more, he'll once again have his highest career total outside of 2005, and with a great September, he could surpass that year's total of 107.

------------------------

Hey, look who's back: Andres Blanco! He wasted no time showing why Aaron Miles should never, ever play again for the Cubs, going 1-for-3 with a run scored.

"One hit?" you say. "That's nothing to write home about."

True, unless you're comparing him to Aaron Miles, which I am. Miles is 0-for-his last 700 (okay, actually his last 19), and is completely useless. On the other hand, Blanco was batting .304 in the minors, is hitting .240 with the Cubs, and is probably the best fielder they have save Derrek Lee.

--------------------------

While there's no arguing the fact that the Cubs have folded like a guy in a tent wearing a cheap suit, sitting on a 2/7 off suit, we have to give credit where credit is due. The Cardinals went 20-6 in August, meaning it would have been difficult for the Cubs to stay in the division race almost no matter what they did. The Cards are now 2-0 in September as well, meaning the Cubs haven't gained any ground on them at all since August 3. For a full month straight, the Cubs have either held their ground or fallen back in the standings every single day.

Soriano, no, no, yes!

Friday: Cubs 5, Nationals 2

The three fingers represent the number of runs he drove in with his game-winning home run, as well as the number of fielding miscues he had in the game.

The Cubs are 10th in the National League in runs scored, but it doesn't feel like they should even be that high, does it? They're 13th in batting average, but have used the long ball to help their cause--they've hit the fourth most home runs in the league, though it feels like they should be lower in that one too. Several key players have seen their home run tallies drop significantly from '08:

Player-----2008--2009

Ramirez----27-----11
Soriano-----29-----20
Soto---------23------9

The Cubs also had 17 HR from the second base position last year, but have just seven this year. But with 137 home runs, the Cubs are on pace to hit just eight fewer home runs in '09 compared to '08.

Nevertheless, a precipitous decline in batting average, walks, on-base percentage, and a host of other offensive statistics has them in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and reveals why Cubs pitchers lead the league in batting average--because they know the only way they're going to get any run support is if they do it themselves.

On Friday, Ted Lilly was taking his fourth shot at his 10th win, and while he pitched well enough to get it, the offense managed just one first-inning run by the time Lilly had left the game in the eighth inning. When the Mets went up 2-1 in that inning, it looked like another lackluster offensive performance would do the Cubs in.

But the Cubs got Lilly off the hook for the loss when Bradley--who was on base after banging out his third hit of the game--scored on Ramirez's single through a drawn-in infield. After a walk to Jeff Baker, Soriano did the one thing the Cubs do well, launching a three-run homer to become the second Cub to reach the 20 home run plateau this year (aside: the Yankees have six players with 20 or more home runs). It was Soriano's first home run in August.

So while the Cubs will have to wait at least a few more days to get a pitcher into double digits in wins, they at least managed to beat a Mets team with guys like Angel Pagan, Fernando Tatis, Omir Santos, Cory Sullivan, Wilson Valdez, and starting pitcher Pat Misch ("Who?" "Misch." "Oooooh," as the routine between the PA announcer and the crowd used to go at Kenosha Twins games) in their starting lineup.

Lee, Ramirez and Soriano combined to go 6-for-11 with all five RBI in the game. Bradley was the only other player with any hits in the contest, notching two doubles along with a single, though he was booed after miscommunicating with Jeff Baker and dropping a fly ball.

On the mound, Ted Lilly continued to look comfortable since coming off the DL, Kevin Gregg got the win despite allowing the game-tying hit (though the run was charged to Lilly, and Soriano probably should have caught the long fly ball that resulted in said run, just one of several fielding miscues for Soriano in the game), and Carlos Marmol walked the leadoff man in the ninth but retired the next three batters to record his sixth save.

The Cardinals are now 20 games over .500 after Khalil Greene tied the game in the eighth with his first career pinch-hit home run and then Albert Pujols unloaded off Jason Bergmann in the ninth, hitting a tape measure, walk-off home run to beat the Nationals. The Cubs remain nine games back.

Like Brett Favre coming out of retirement, it was only a matter of time until ...

Bears nose tackle Dusty Dvoracek suffered a season-ending injury. For the fourth time in his four-year career, Dvoracek will be placed on injured reserve, this time with a torn right ACL. Dvoracek's injury turns a three-man race into a two-man race between Anthony Adams and Marcus Harrison.

A position battle on the same side of the ball has been decided, as Pisa Tinoisamoa (whose name might just be harder to spell than Jeff Samardzija's) will be the starting strongside linebacker alongside Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Tinoisamoa, who was released by the Rams last season despite leading the team in tackles, was battling Nick Roach, Jamar Williams, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Hillenmeyer.

It's a good thing he won the battle given that he's the starter on the already-released Madden 10.

Even Wrigley can't save the Cubs; 11 more runners stranded leads to fifth loss in six games

Tuesday: Phillies 4, Cubs 3 (12 inn.)


Tell me if you've heard this one before: The Cubs pounded out a bunch of hits, putting pressure on the other team's pitching all day. But they came up empty time after time with runners on base, and ultimately lost the game.

Oh, you've heard that one before? What's that, you say? That was the case in each of the last two games as well? Hm, come to think of it, you're right.

Perhaps the Cubs don't realize that it only counts if you touch home. Stepping on first, second or third doesn't count in the final score, boys.

But they still had a chance to win because Rich Harden was lights out. Since the All-Star break, Harden has been practically unhittable. In six starts, he's allowed just six earned runs and 19 hits in 37 innings while striking out 47 (1.95 ERA). Harden and Randy Wells are big reasons the Cubs are still afloat with Lilly and Zambrano on the DL.

But once Harden left the game, the tune quickly changed. Let me know if you've heard this one: Carlos Marmol walked three and hit a batter, and he walked in a run.

Yeah, I've heard it too.

What the f*** is wrong with Carlos Marmol? How can a big league pitcher have such bad control? It seems like 75 percent of the time he throws, he has no idea where the ball's going to go. For those of you unfamiliar with the sport of baseball, that's not an effective way to pitch.

Is it worth entertaining the notion of sending Marmol down to the minors to try to find his command? It seems to me that Lou can't just keep trotting him out there in the 8th inning of close games. He could use Grabow and Guzman as the primary set-up men. I realize Marmol has great "stuff," and he certainly has the potential to mow guys down, but perhaps a little time in Iowa would help him figure things out.

Grabow and Guzman came on to pitch effectively, and Gregg had a perfect 11th, but he then allowed a leadoff home run to Ben Francisco in the 12th. That turned out to be the decisive run, and the Cubs lost game one of the series with Samardzija starting tonight and Cliff Lee on the mound for the Phillies Thursday.

With an early 2-0 lead and Rich Harden dealing (he took a perfect game into the 6th), it looked like the Cubs were taking advantage of some more home cookin'. The Cubs' home winning percentage is second only to the Giants in the NL, and they were 8-2 in their last 10 at Wrigley prior to last night.

But after leaving 13 men on base in each of the last two games in Colorado, the Cubs stranded 11 more on Tuesday. They had several chances--especially early--to build a bigger lead, but refused to take advantage. Their .232 average with runners in scoring position is the worst in the league. Contrast that with the Cardinals, who are batting .263 in RBI situations, and you get an idea why the Cubs are looking up at them in the standings. For whatever reason, the Cubs seem to find ways to lose this year after consistently finding ways to win last year.

On the bright side, the Cardinals lost to Justin Lehr and the Reds, so the divisional deficit remains at three games. The Cardinals will have Chris Carpenter on the mound tonight.

By the way, I've talked a lot about the Rookie of the Year competition, which includes J.A. Happ, who pitched well and got a no decision last night. But I need to mention that Tommy Hanson, a 22-year-old Braves rookie who was called up in June, improved to 7-2 last night. He has a 3.05 ERA, and has placed himself firmly in the rearview mirror of Happ and Randy Wells.

And it isn't J.A. Happ who will go to the pen with Pedro coming off the DL tonight, it's veteran Jamie Moyer. And he ain't happy about it.

From the blogs

Is Carlos Zambrano the most overpaid player in baseball? David Kaplan thinks so. Jorge Says No! disagrees, as do I.

The dynasty is over

The Nationals' eight-game winning streak ended with a 8-1 loss to the Braves. Don't look now, Phillies--they're only 23 1/2 games behind you!

Sexual harassment isn't funny ...

... but this is hilarious.

Dempster gets first win since July 2, Cubs hope for good news on Zambrano, Ramirez

Saturday: Cubs 6, Rockies 5


A strange win, but a big one.

Lou trotted out a brand new lineup, the Cubs made several defensive mistakes, and the Rockies had 11 hits, yet the Cubs got a big win to bring them back to 4-4 on the road trip.

I may have liked Saturday's lineup even more than Friday's. When I heard Fukudome was out of the leadoff spot, I was not happy. He has clearly made himself a nice home at the top of the order. However, the downside of batting Bradley second is that Theriot has to bat too far down in the order. Theriot can certainly hold his own in the leadoff spot, and if Fukudome can carry over his success to the five spot, then Lou can bide some time until Soto (hopefully) gets his swing going. Fukudome had a double and a home run, while Theriot had three singles, an RBI and a run scored.

And with a quality start from Ryan Dempster and three scoreless innings from the bullpen (including Marmol's best outing in a long time), the Cubs were able to remain one game behind the Cardinals. Bradley reached base two more times, Derrek Lee connected for his 23rd home run of the season, and even Aaron Miles connected for a triple and came around to score.

But still I ask: why oh why was Aaron Miles starting again? (Actually, I'll tell you: he was 6-for-16 against Marquis in his career.) If you ask me, he shouldn't even be on the roster, but for goodness' sake, at least stop trotting him out there as part of the starting lineup. There is absolutely no reason why Andres Blanco, who was batting 40 points higher than Miles and is 10 times the fielder (he may be the best fielder the Cubs have had all year), is in the minors while Miles is wasting space on the Cubs roster.

Speaking of who is and isn't on the roster, Carlos Zambrano was placed on the DL for the second time this season due to back spasms. Reliever Jeff Stevens was recalled to replace him. Because he hasn't pitched since Aug. 1, Zambrano will be eligible to return next Monday, Aug. 17. It sounds like Jeff Samardzija will start in his place on Wednesday against the Phillies. With John Grabow now in the bullpen, I would prefer Marshall to get the start, but on the bright side, Samardzija won't be coming on in relief over the next few days!

On top of Zambrano's injury, the injury bug bit the Cubs yet again, as Aramis Ramirez appeared to tweak his shoulder early in the game, and left in the 5th. Hopefully he'll be okay, but we'll at least see Jake Fox at the hot corner today, if not for a few days.

The Cubs have the third worst fielding percentage in the National League this year, and their glovework was perhaps the main reason Saturday's game was so close. In the 4th inning, the Cubs infield did their best impression of the Washington Generals.

First, Theriot was unable to grab a grounder up the middle that would have resulted in at least one out, if not two. On the very next play, Ramirez booted an easy double play grounder, and the stage was set for a big Rockies inning. One was inclined to feel bad for Ryan Dempster, but then he failed to cover first base on what could have been a double play later in the inning. Good ol' Aaron Miles then ran away from second base after Soto threw to second on a wild pitch, conceding the base as he looked to see if the runner at third was going to break for home (he didn't). That's FIVE extra outs the Cubs gave the Rockies in one inning.

All muscle, no hustle

Piniella needs to start benching or fining guys for a lack of effort. That may sound old school or overreactive, but the fact is, the Cubs may put out less effort than any team in baseball. The lineup is loaded with primadonnas who can't bring themselves to run hard when they put the ball in play. Soriano turned a double into a single on Friday, and Bradley came within a split-second of costing the Cubs a run when he decided to admire a ball he hit instead of running hard. He was tagged out at second for the third out just after Theriot crossed the plate with the go-ahead run. I don't care who you are or how much you make, RUN! This isn't football or soccer--you really don't have to run full speed all that often. Props to Bob Brenly for voicing a similar position during last night's broadcast.

Remember him?

Jason Dubois was traded to the Mets Friday, and was assigned to the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. He played 72 games for the Cubs between 2004 and 2005, batting .236 with eight home runs and 27 RBI.

Is Randy spelled ROY?

The Cubs could have the Rookie of the Year two years in a row for the first time since 1961-62 when Billy Williams and Ken Hubbs took the honors.

Randy Wells is making a serious case for himself. With 12 consecutive scoreless innings heading into Monday, Wells beat the Reds for the second time in less than two weeks, building up to 19 straight scoreless innings before allowing a solo home run to Alex Gonzalez in the 8th. He climbed to 8-4 with the win, and dropped his ERA to 2.73 along the way.

Among rookie pitchers, the Phillies' J.A. Happ is having a great season as well. Happ is 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA, but he might be on his way to the bullpen when the Phillies activate newly-signed Pedro Martinez.

Among rookie hitters, the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus has a .252, 11, 35 season going, and the Brewers' Casey McGehee is batting .319, but has a relatively modest nine home runs and 34 RBI.

If Wells keeps dealing, he will be a very viable candidate for the award. He's now just two innings shy of qualifying for the NL ERA leaderboard--if he did qualify, he'd be seventh in the league. If he gets up to 12 or 13 wins, the Cubs could have a catcher and a pitcher win Rookie of the Year in consecutive years.

Monday: Cubs 4, Reds 2

Great to see Fontenot put a charge into one. His last home run was also against the Reds, and the three-run shot matched his home run total (9) from last year.

Carlos Marmol eventually closed it out, but not without plenty of drama. With his 36-pitch outing, Piniella--who wanted to stay away from Gregg for a couple days--may have to go to Guzman or Marshall to close out tonight's game should a save situation arise.

Some want Marmol to be the closer after Gregg imploded in Florida over the weekend. I say there's not enough blood pressure medication in the world for that.

With the Cardinals taking a day off, the Cubs pulled into a tie for first. The Cardinals head to Citi Field for two with the Mets, followed by a three-game set in Pittsburgh.

Fishing for a road win

Friday: Marlins 5, Cubs 2

Chris Volstad has made fish food out of the Cubs this year. In two starts, he's pitched 7 and 6.2 innings, respectively, and allowed just two runs in each. Perhaps most importantly, he's walked nary a batter. Much of the success the Cubs enjoyed on the homestand was due to their renewed interest in taking pitches and bases on balls, but Friday they drew just one free pass.

And that's the question this road trip will answer: can the Cubs have success away from Wrigley? They're 33-19 at home, but just 21-28 on the road. They've scored 44 runs in their last 12 road games. The Cubs have turned on the jets at home, but they really need to start holding their own on the road. This 10-game road trip should reveal a lot.

I'll tell you one thing, though: Jake Fox doesn't care where he is, as long as there are bats and balls there. People have wondered what his best position is, and I think it's clear--the batter's box. But seriously, he has played five defensive positions for Lou and hasn't been a sore spot in any of them. I truly believe his left field defense (other than his arm) is probably better than Soriano's, and he has been serviceable at 3B, 1B, catcher and right field as well. It's good to see him continue to get at-bats.

But the Cubs lost because Marmol's scoreless streak came to an end. His control escaped him again, as he issued two walks and hit a batter, resulting in three runs to all but put the game away in the 8th. I suppose we should let him slide this time, given that this is really his first slip-up since July 11.

Besides, it was a great month of July for the Cubs. They went 18-9 in the month, and climbed from fourth place and 4 1/2 games out, to second place and just 1/2 game out. The Cardinals got yet another 4-for-4 day from Matt Holliday and upended the Astros to take over first place. But the Astros (obviously) lost and so did the Brewers, despite the fact that they had a 7-1 lead in the 2nd inning. Both Milwaukee and Houston are doing their darndest to make themselves irrelevant as we head into the final two months of the season.

Gorzelanny

The Trib confirms that Tom Gorzelanny will start Tuesday for the Cubs. My guess is Jeff Stevens gets a ticket back to Iowa when Gorzelanny is called up. Also, Soto will start his rehab Monday and should be back with the team Friday in Colorado.

Remember him?

Steve Bartman just can't escape his place in Cubs lore. ESPN is planning an hour-long documentary on the famous fan as part of its "30 for 30" series.

***UPDATE***The Cubs aren't big fans of said documentary.

(hat tip: Sherry Christol)

Cubs join grand slam party, win fifth straight

Monday: Cubs 5, Astros 1 (13 inn.)


Apparently it was Grand Slam Day in Major League Baseball, as there were a total of four on Monday night. Josh Willingham of the Nationals hit grand slams in the 5th and 6th innings. He's the thirteenth player to hit two grand slams in one game (meaning it's a feat more rare than a perfect game), and the sixth to hit them in back-to-back innings. Fernando Tatis, by the way, is the only player ever to have hit two grand slams in one inning, and, interestingly, he hit a grand slam Monday as well.

And the fourth, of course, was hit by Alfonso Soriano. He was 0-for-5 through 12 innings, meaning his nine-game hitting streak was in serious jeopardy. But even though all he needed was a long fly ball in the 13th, he smashed one about 430 feet to straightaway center just for fun.

The win enabled the Cubs to match their high-water mark of the season: they were seven games over .500 at 21-14 after beating ... the Astros on May 16.

Speaking of home runs, it doesn't matter what jersey Carlos Lee is wearing, he always hits the Cubs. He wailed on them with the White Sox, bashed them as a Brewer, and now he annihilates them as an Astro. His tape measure shot in the 2nd was his 29th career home run against the Cubs, by far the most for him against any team (he has 19 off the Royals and Indians). As I mentioned yesterday, he's definitely a starter on the All-Cub Killer Team.

A different Lee--Derrek--became the first Cub to hit 20 HR, and he did it in style with a visit to Waveland Avenue. He also matched his home run total from last year. Back in April, he would have been about fifth on my list of Cubs Likely to Hit 20 HR.

And while I give Piniella huge props for calling a suicide squeeze, what was he doing letting Zambrano bat in the 7th even though no bench players had been used and he was coming out of the game anyways? No Jake Fox? I realize Lou is loathe to use him because he's the back-up catcher, but you have to put an actual hitter in the game with runners at first and second in the bottom of the 7th, especially when the pitcher is being taken down one way or the other. Plus, Fox ended up coming in to catch late in the game anyways.

On the bright side, Z did an excellent job on the mound. With 7 IP and 1 ER, he now has a 2.63 July ERA and a 3-1 record to go with it. He took a tough no-decision Monday as Wandy Rodriguez continued an even better month--a 0.75 ERA and a 4-0 record. Rodriguez, 30, has seen his ERA go down every year since 2006, and his next win will give him more wins (11) in 2009 than any year of his career. Let's hope we don't have to see him in our one remaining series with the Astros.

On a separate note, Carlos Marmol has really turned it on of late. He hasn't allowed any runs in his last eight appearances, and has allowed just one run in his last 14. With Gregg just four saves off the league leading pace, the 8th and 9th innings have become very comfortable for the Cubs (as comfortable as 8th and 9th innings can be, anyways).

Central Intelligence

The Cardinals beat the Dodgers with the assistance of yet another home run by Mark DeRosa (5 of his 11 hits as a Cardinal are home runs, though he's hitting just .244), while the Brewers lost in part because of those Josh Willingham grand slams mentioned earlier. So the Cubs remain 1/2 game up on the Cards, and extend their lead over the Astros and Brewers to three and four games, respectively.

Phillies extend longest winning streak since 1991 at Cubs' expense

Tuesday: Phillies 4, Cubs 1 (13 inn.)

Okay, seriously, what's going on with these home/road splits? Ryan Dempster was Dorothy last year ("There's no place like home. There's no place like home"), and this year Lilly has taken that mantle while Harden is the anti-Dorothy. He continued to find success on the road Tuesday with one of his best outings of the year: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Harden has allowed just 4 ER in his last four road starts. And get this: in the Cubs' last six games, Harden is the only starting pitcher to have gone more than five innings, and he's done it twice.

But here's a news flash for you: a good outing by a starting pitcher was wasted due to a lack of offense. The bats have gone back into hibernation, scoring just two runs in two games in a hitters' ballpark against the 13th ranked pitching staff in the National League. Milton Bradley, shortly after announcing that he was "back," was back on the bench for a second straight game. But instead of getting Fox's bat in there, Reed Johnson replaced him as Fukudome moved over to right. With the bats back to their old ways, I'd like to see Fox get in there on a more regular basis.

Last night's game went 13 innings, but you wouldn't know it by checking the Cubs' half of the line score--the offense stopped participating after the 7th inning. From the 8th through the 13th, the Cubs did not have a single hit, and had just one baserunner on hit by pitch. Allow me to repeat: in the last six innings, the Cubs had one baserunner.

The Cubs bullpen, on the other hand, had a great game. They kept the Cubs in the game by allowing just one hit over the last 5 2/3 innings until Jayson Werth ended the game with a home run.

Carlos Marmol may have had his best outing of the year, and though I say this cautiously, he may be building some momentum. In his last four outings, his line is: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. On Tuesday, he was throwing his fast ball up in the zone and getting guys to swing and miss. Throwing that heater up top is great--throwing it a foot outside as he often does is not effective. If he can start to control that fast ball, the Cubs will be in great shape in the 8th and 9th innings.

The good news is that the Cardinals lost to the Astros for the second straight night (despite two home runs by Mark DeRosa), keeping the Cubs within two games of first. The bad news is that the Brewers and Astros (!) pulled into a three-way tie for second.

Can the Astros fade away just one freakin' time? Every year they start terribly and then come on strong in July and August. They were 18-28 on May 27, and today they sit at 48-46 and in a tie for second.

Random link

Over at ESPN, Jerry Crasnick shares his take on the Cubs. Quote worthy: "They have a campus-police-like flair for killing a party mood."

Well, what did you expect?

We've reached the "halfway" point of the baseball season, and that means it's time to look back at the Cubs' performance thus far. We're going to take a look at the individual players, and in this analysis, like in life, it's all about expectations. For this reason, the following is brought to you by Dennis Green:

They are who we thought they were!!

Ryan Theriot: A solid top-of-the-order contact hitter. But 7 HR? Theriot must have BALCO's number on speed dial (kidding).

Derrek Lee: Whether Lee fits into this category actually depends on your levels of optimism and patience. A month into the season, I would have penciled him in for about 12 HR and a .265 BA. But it turns out, he is who we though he was at the beginning of last year.

Kosuke Fukudome: A hot starter with a penchant for dropping off the table when the temperature hits 75.

Koyie Hill: A backup catcher.

Ted Lilly: A great signing by Hendry. Top-notch left-handed innings-eater (enough hyphens for ya?).

Sean Marshall: Reliable, do-what-the-team-needs lefty. Has been better than expected out of the 'pen.

Kevin Gregg: Serviceable closer. Has 16 saves in 19 chances.

Aaron Heilman: Not-so-great reliever who walks too many people.

Carlos Zambrano: A bit frustrating at times, but gets the job done in the end.


They aren't who we thought they were! (the good version)

Angel Guzman: Not many Cubs have exceeded expectations, but Angel Guzman has been a godsend out of the 'pen. His 2.60 ERA has given Lou another reliable late-inning arm.

They aren't who we thought they were! (the bad version)

Milton Bradley: .321, 22, 77. Recognize those numbers? Those are Bradley's numbers last year with the Rangers. .243, 6, 21. Surely you recognize those. He needs to step it up, and he's not alone.

Aramis Ramirez: Well, we did think he was injury prone, but the fact that he missed two months means we have not had his big, clutch bat in the middle of the lineup like we expected.

Alfonso Soriano: .233 BA (lowest in any prior season: .268). 14 HR and 33 RBI (averages 36 and 93). But, he has stayed healthy! (Unless, of course, he's actually hurt and that's why he looks so terrible.)

Mike Fontenot: Won the 2B job after batting .305 last season. Batting .230 this year.

Geovany Soto: From Rookie of the Year to struggling, injury prone disappointment. Is the WBC at fault?

Aaron Miles: From my season preview: "He's scrappy and I like him." Never mind.

Ryan Dempster: Most of us didn't expect a repeat of his 17-6 performance last year, but he's got an ERA over a run higher and just five wins.

Jeff Samardzija: Made some waves last year, hoping to build on it this year. Not so much.

Rich Harden: Career ERA 3.47. 2009 ERA 5.47. But he's batting .304!

Carlos Marmol: I know, I know, his ERA is 3.64, but I can barely watch the guy any more with his 42 BB in 42 IP.


Who the hell are they?

Randy Wells: Nabbed by the Blue Jays as a Rule 5 last year, it sure is nice that we got him back. Two more quality starts than Harden.

Sam Fuld: Put his name on the radar screen last year, and has brought some energy to a listless left field this year.

Jake Fox: An up-and-coming prospect for several years, and now we know why. The ball just jumps off his bat.

Micah Hoffpauir: His average has slipped to .244, but his 8 HR and 25 RBI have provided some pop.


So that's how the Cubs stack up in relation to my expectations. It's obviously not good that there are so many players who have failed to meet expectations, but it could bode well for the second half. Teams that are in the playoff race due to guys playing out of their minds have to worry about them coming back to Earth. The Cubs just need to find a way to get guys like Soriano and Bradley back to this solar system in order to break away from the .500 mark and make a run in what to this point has been a very weak division.

The Cubs have the fourth best ERA in the league despite Zambrano and Harden spending time on the DL and the fact that they've used 14 relievers. If Marmol gets his act together, Guzman settles in again and guys like Samardzija and Stevens can contribute, the Cubs can add a solid bullpen to a strong rotation and continue to shut down their opponents' offense in the second half.

On the offensive side ... well, it was offensive. The Cubs' $214 million outfield of Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley has combined for 81 RBI; Ramirez checks in with just 17 due to the time he missed with an injury; and Ryan Freel, Joey Gathright and Aaron Miles were as useless as a catcher with no mitt. The lineup has seen more position changes than Ron Jeremy, and without Derrek Lee the Cubs would likely be out of contention by now.

But, with Reed Johnson and Aramis Ramirez back (and Milton Bradley says he's back too), combined with the emergence of guys like Jake Fox and Sam Fuld, perhaps Lou will be able to find a lineup that clicks as we head into the second half. There's nowhere to go but up for the offense, and even a slight improvement--even if it's just an improvement with runners in scoring position--should enable the starters to rack up the wins they deserve.

It was a first half of mediocrity, averageness, ordinariness ... fill in your own synonym here. The Cubs went 43-43 and outscored their opponents by two runs. It wasn't what we expected to see, to say the least, but with the Cubs needing to lose just one fewer game than the Cardinals in the second half, there's a lot to look forward to.