Cubs' 2009 castoffs: What are they doing now?

*statistics accurate through Tuesday

Milton Bradley
There have already been a couple Bradley updates on this blog, but here's another: he's been slowed by a calf injury and, presumably, by the fact that he's certifiably insane. He's hitting .214 with two home runs and 12 RBI. He has a relatively poor .313 OBP. Oh, and he's mad again.

***UPDATE: Bradley is out indefinitely until he receives an outside assessment and a plan to address his issues. The Bradley/Silva trade is approaching Todd Hundley-for-Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek level.

Aaron Miles
Miles disappointed the Cubs immensely in 2009, and did the same to the Reds in spring training. They designated him for assignment (i.e. released him) on April 5, and he signed a minor league contract with the Cardinals last Tuesday.

Reed Johnson
Jim Hendry let Johnson go in favor of free agent Xavier Nady. Johnson found a home with the Dodgers, and here's the comparison thus far:

Player-------AB-------Avg.------HR-----RBI-----OBP
Nady--------34-------.176--------1--------4-------.333
Johnson----48-------.271--------0-------4-------.286

So, basically, it's a big shoulder shrug of a move at this point. However, there's a $2.5 million difference in their salaries, so Nady needs to get it going to make Hendry's investment a good one.

Andres Blanco
He has only amassed 33 at-bats with the Rangers thus far--his slash line (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) is an underwhelming .212/.278/.212.

Rich Harden
Rich Harden has been SO Rich Harden with the Rangers. He has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his six starts this season, yet he's gone five innings or more just three times. His walk total in his first five starts: 5, 3, 6, 4, 5. Not good. He's had two pretty good starts in a row, however, including a dominant outing on Monday.

Aaron Heilman
You probably know what he's up to after having seen him pitch against the Cubs this weekend: six earned runs in just 10.2 innings on the season (5.06 ERA), plus five walks and two home runs.

Kevin Gregg
Gregg lost out on the closer role in spring training, but Jason Frasor's struggles have resulted in several save opportunities for him. He's 7-for-7 in those chances, has struck out 16 guys in 13 innings, and has a miniscule 0.69 ERA. Basically, he's been awesome. If we would have known he was going to do that, he would have fit real nicely in the eighth inning for the Cubs!

And the winner is ...

Well, the season's over. Let's see, something positive to say ...

Ah, I got it: It wasn't a June swoon that cost the Cubs!

Unfortunately, it was an August one that did them in. While the Cardinals got as hot as the color of their jerseys, the Cubs struggled and stumbled and sank to second place on their way to a disappointing 83-78 season.

Given the expectations, the injuries, the horrific fundamentals, the apparent lack of passion, and the fact that the Cubs never really put together any real good stretches save when they beat up on the Nationals and Reds right after the All-Star break, this was one of the least enjoyable Cubs seasons I can recall. Again, I factor expectations into the equation here. Sure, Cubs fans always look forward to each season with rose-colored glasses, but deep down, we often know it ain't gonna happen. This year, everyone just knew it was going to happen. So, wha' happened?

What happened is that Soriano batted 37 points below his career average and had just 55 RBI. What happened is that Geovany Soto had a sophomore slump that Van Wilder would be proud of. What happened was that Zambrano and Dempster combined to win 11 fewer games than they did in 2008. What happened was that Aaron Miles was one of Lou's first options off the bench.

But you know all this already. What you don't know is how Trevor Sierra, Andrew Kapral and I did in our annual prediction challenge. And I know you're on the edge of your seat with anticipation.

But first, one more note about the 2009 season: Last Thursday's rainout resulted in the Cubs playing fewer than 162 games for the second straight season. The last time the Cubs went back-to-back seasons without playing 162 games was from 1984-87, when they played 161, 161, 160, and 161 games, respectively. The Cubs also played just 160 games in 1991, and played an extra game in 1998 due to the play-in game versus the Giants.

And now, the results you've been waiting for ever since 12 seconds ago when you read the paragraph that indicated I was about to share with you the results of our annual prediction challenge:

Cubs wins
Brandon 92
Trevor 89
Andrew 90

Actual: 83

All three of us correctly assumed that the Cubs wouldn't be able to match their gaudy win total from 2008. We did not assume, however, that they would tread water most of the season and finish just a touch above .500. Andrew is notorious for being pessimistic in our challenge, but this year it was Trevor's dire outlook on life and general hatred of all things Cubs that got him a win in the biggest category of all. I hope you're happy, Trevor. By the way, all three of us picked the Cubs to win the Central, but with the Cardinals having won 91 games, only my predicted total would have resulted in a division title. So I have no choice but to assign additional blame to Andrew for the Cubs' disappointing season. I don't know how you guys sleep at night.

Zambrano wins
Brandon 17
Trevor 17
Andrew 19

Actual: 9

It's almost as if Andrew underwent some sort of significant, life-changing experience that made him more optimistic. Perhaps around, say, April 4 of this year? Well, that optimism is admirable and should generally be applauded, but for the purposes of this prediction challenge, it's really biting him in the ass. Trevor and I split this one despite our stunningly inaccurate prediction of 17 wins.

Fukudome average
Brandon .274
Trevor .271
Andrew .280

Actual: .259

Remember how at the end of last year we all said the Cubs had overpaid for Fukudome? That he was just an average player despite his $12 million salary? Well, we're all eating our words now--Fukudome raised his average two whole points this year! And ... wait for it ... he hit one more home run! Way to go, Kosuke! Trevor wins again on account of his xenophobia and attendant hatred of Asian people.

Gregg saves
Brandon 31
Trevor 29
Andrew 23

Actual: 23

Gotta hand it to Andrew on this one. We'll never know if he thought the Cubs would win a lot of blowouts and therefore deflate Gregg's save total, or if he looked into his crystal ball and saw a glimpse of Gregg being demoted in favor of Carlos Marmol. Either way, he nailed it.

Soto home runs
Brandon 29
Trevor 27
Andrew 24

Actual: 11

Um, what the hell? We all predicted Soto would hit at least twice the number of home runs that he did. Eleven? Seriously? You know who hit more than 11 home runs? Will Venable. Sorry, not familiar? How about Laynce Nix? That guy doesn't even know how to spell his name! Neither does Jonny Gomes, but he outhomered Soto too. Did you have the legendary Miguel Montero on your fantasy team? More home runs than Soto. You get the point. Andrew takes this sorry excuse for a category.

Marshall wins
Brandon 12
Trevor 12
Andrew 10

Actual: 3

If the last one was a sorry excuse for a category, what does that make this one? We all had Marshall ticketed for a strong season as the fifth starter, but he went to the 'pen and Randy Wells put the fifth starter spot on lockdown. Of pitchers who threw at least 60 innings for the Cubs, only Carlos Marmol had fewer wins (2) than Marshall. What was I saying about Andrew and his newfound optimism? The optimism tank was apparently emptied right about halfway through his 2009 predictions.

Team double plays turned
Brandon 149
Trevor 128
Andrew 128

Actual: 144

With a few games to go, I thought I might actually nail this prediction exactly. But the Cubs didn't turn any twin killings in their last two games, and the rainout took away another game. This could have gone down as the greatest prediction in the history of sports ... but no. Still, thank God for this category; it stands as my only solo victory on the year.

Final tally:

Trevor: 3
Andrew: 3
Brandon: 2

We also predicted the final NL Central standings, but that doesn't solve matters as all three of us flipped the Cubs and Cardinals and then accurately predicted two other teams while flip-flopping two others. Oh well, a tie it is!

Congratulations to Trevor and Andrew on their Debbie Downer, tag team effort as they double-handedly ruined the Cubs season for reasons that are not readily apparent to me. Congratulations to all others who participated (me), and best of luck next year!

Not an August performance

Monday: Astros 5, Cubs 3


What do you think Rich Harden was thinking about when he went to bed Sunday night? Was he hoping to be traded to Minnesota, where the Twins are 3.5 games behind the Tigers and where his good friend Justin Morneau resides? Or was he hoping to find himself on the mound at Wrigley Monday night, keeping open the possibility that he will remain in Chicago beyond 2009.

We may never know the answer to that, but while the Twins were dealing a knockout blow to the White Sox (the Sox traded Jim Thome and Jose Contreras after the game), the Cubs were turning in another meek performance en route to a 5-3 loss and an 11-17 August. It was the almost-former Cubs night, as Harden went five innings and then Aaron Heilman, who was claimed off waivers by the Giants over the weekend, came in for the next two. Former closer Kevin Gregg pitched the eighth and pretty new Cub John Grabow threw a perfect ninth.

Piniella says he'll play Koyie Hill "a lot more" instead of Geovany Soto, and I can't blame him. I just hope Soto finds his 2008 Rookie of the Year form when the calendar turns to 2010.

Back to Jim Thome getting traded: he went to the Dodgers, which makes me wonder where he's gonna play. Having played just 28 games at first base since 2005 (he was strictly a DH with the White Sox), are they just going to use him off the bench? I'm not sure that Thome, who has 23 home runs and 74 RBI this year, would be too thrilled with that.

Speaking of trades by the Dodgers...

L.A. also picked up starter Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks, and the best part of that trade is that Jon Garland found out during their game last night--against the Dodgers. So all Garland had to do was switch dugouts!

I predict that I'm about to toot my own horn

While the Twins apparently killed the White Sox' chances of making the playoffs, the Cubs have been turning twin killings at a rate very pleasurable to me this season. That's because heading into last night's game, the Cubs were on pace to turn 149 double plays. That happens to be the exact number that I predicted prior to the season.

Soriano, no, no, yes!

Friday: Cubs 5, Nationals 2

The three fingers represent the number of runs he drove in with his game-winning home run, as well as the number of fielding miscues he had in the game.

The Cubs are 10th in the National League in runs scored, but it doesn't feel like they should even be that high, does it? They're 13th in batting average, but have used the long ball to help their cause--they've hit the fourth most home runs in the league, though it feels like they should be lower in that one too. Several key players have seen their home run tallies drop significantly from '08:

Player-----2008--2009

Ramirez----27-----11
Soriano-----29-----20
Soto---------23------9

The Cubs also had 17 HR from the second base position last year, but have just seven this year. But with 137 home runs, the Cubs are on pace to hit just eight fewer home runs in '09 compared to '08.

Nevertheless, a precipitous decline in batting average, walks, on-base percentage, and a host of other offensive statistics has them in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and reveals why Cubs pitchers lead the league in batting average--because they know the only way they're going to get any run support is if they do it themselves.

On Friday, Ted Lilly was taking his fourth shot at his 10th win, and while he pitched well enough to get it, the offense managed just one first-inning run by the time Lilly had left the game in the eighth inning. When the Mets went up 2-1 in that inning, it looked like another lackluster offensive performance would do the Cubs in.

But the Cubs got Lilly off the hook for the loss when Bradley--who was on base after banging out his third hit of the game--scored on Ramirez's single through a drawn-in infield. After a walk to Jeff Baker, Soriano did the one thing the Cubs do well, launching a three-run homer to become the second Cub to reach the 20 home run plateau this year (aside: the Yankees have six players with 20 or more home runs). It was Soriano's first home run in August.

So while the Cubs will have to wait at least a few more days to get a pitcher into double digits in wins, they at least managed to beat a Mets team with guys like Angel Pagan, Fernando Tatis, Omir Santos, Cory Sullivan, Wilson Valdez, and starting pitcher Pat Misch ("Who?" "Misch." "Oooooh," as the routine between the PA announcer and the crowd used to go at Kenosha Twins games) in their starting lineup.

Lee, Ramirez and Soriano combined to go 6-for-11 with all five RBI in the game. Bradley was the only other player with any hits in the contest, notching two doubles along with a single, though he was booed after miscommunicating with Jeff Baker and dropping a fly ball.

On the mound, Ted Lilly continued to look comfortable since coming off the DL, Kevin Gregg got the win despite allowing the game-tying hit (though the run was charged to Lilly, and Soriano probably should have caught the long fly ball that resulted in said run, just one of several fielding miscues for Soriano in the game), and Carlos Marmol walked the leadoff man in the ninth but retired the next three batters to record his sixth save.

The Cardinals are now 20 games over .500 after Khalil Greene tied the game in the eighth with his first career pinch-hit home run and then Albert Pujols unloaded off Jason Bergmann in the ninth, hitting a tape measure, walk-off home run to beat the Nationals. The Cubs remain nine games back.

Like Brett Favre coming out of retirement, it was only a matter of time until ...

Bears nose tackle Dusty Dvoracek suffered a season-ending injury. For the fourth time in his four-year career, Dvoracek will be placed on injured reserve, this time with a torn right ACL. Dvoracek's injury turns a three-man race into a two-man race between Anthony Adams and Marcus Harrison.

A position battle on the same side of the ball has been decided, as Pisa Tinoisamoa (whose name might just be harder to spell than Jeff Samardzija's) will be the starting strongside linebacker alongside Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Tinoisamoa, who was released by the Rams last season despite leading the team in tackles, was battling Nick Roach, Jamar Williams, and to a lesser extent, Hunter Hillenmeyer.

It's a good thing he won the battle given that he's the starter on the already-released Madden 10.

Gregg gets stung, then demoted

Monday: Padres 4, Cubs 1


That one hurts. The Cubs are now six games behind the Cardinals and failed to take advantage of an opportunity to gain a 1/2 game in the Wild Card race with a horrific loss to the third worst team in the National League.

Until the 9th inning, the story was the return of both Ted Lilly and Aramis Ramirez.

We hadn't seen Lilly in nearly a month, when he allowed 10 runs in Philadelphia on July 20. Before that, he had three consecutive strong starts. He pitched well last night, giving the Cubs six scoreless innings despite being on an 85-90 pitch count. With only 70 pitches thrown, I'm not sure why Piniella took him down for a pinch-hitter given how well he was pitching. I know the bullpen was at full strength after the rainout on Sunday, but I'd rather see Lilly go one more inning than see three innings from our bullpen.

And while Aramis singled in a pinch-hit appearance on Saturday, he hadn't started since August 8 at Colorado when he left with shoulder soreness. Last night, he had two of the Cubs' seven hits
and drove in their only run.

And that run looked like it would hold up, but Kevin Gregg allowed a walk, a double, an intentional walk and a three -run homer, blowing his sixth save of the season. Ouch. And it sounds like Gregg is now out as the Cubs' closer. I don't think that's necessarily a terrible move given Gregg's recent struggles, but I don't think we should trot Marmol out there every game.

The Padres, by the way, are the only non-NL Central team the Cubs face three times this season. The Cubs swept them at home and got swept at Petco earlier in the season; let's hope a third sweep is not in the works.

While Gregg is the main culprit, you also have to look at an offense that once again looked completely disinterested in scoring any runs on the road. The Cubs had a grand total of two extra base hits, and gave Lilly and the 'pen just one measly run to work with.

Heading into the game, the 6-7-8-9 hitters in the Cubs lineup (Fontenot, Soto, Miles, Lilly) were batting .227, .225, .185 and .073, respectively. Shockingly, they combined to go 0-for-13, and they also left 10 men on base. Aaron Miles is 1-for-20 since coming off the DL. I would be happy if the Cubs traded him for a bag of peanuts. I don't even care if they're unsalted peanuts. Expired, even.

When Carlos Zambrano returns next Tuesday, the Cubs will essentially be back at full strength. Let's hope it's not too late.

Strasburg signs at the last minute

The Nationals came within minutes of failing to sign their top draft pick for the second straight year.

Because Stephen Strasburg is represented by super (evil) agent Scott Boras, baseball's top draft pick nearly remained unsigned at the signing deadline. He scoffed at $12.5 million, asking for multiple times that. But ultimately, he signed for about $15 million. That breaks the record for a draft pick's contract, formerly held by Mark Prior. It would have been a damned shame if a player who has not yet played a single major league game walked away from an eight-figure contract despite the fact that it would have been nearly impossible to improve upon the college numbers he put up last year at San Diego State.

Rookie of the Year Watch

J.A. Happ won his ninth game for the Phillies Sunday night, matching Randy Wells' win total. Tommy Hanson beat the Diamondbacks last night, moving his record to 8-2.

Even Wrigley can't save the Cubs; 11 more runners stranded leads to fifth loss in six games

Tuesday: Phillies 4, Cubs 3 (12 inn.)


Tell me if you've heard this one before: The Cubs pounded out a bunch of hits, putting pressure on the other team's pitching all day. But they came up empty time after time with runners on base, and ultimately lost the game.

Oh, you've heard that one before? What's that, you say? That was the case in each of the last two games as well? Hm, come to think of it, you're right.

Perhaps the Cubs don't realize that it only counts if you touch home. Stepping on first, second or third doesn't count in the final score, boys.

But they still had a chance to win because Rich Harden was lights out. Since the All-Star break, Harden has been practically unhittable. In six starts, he's allowed just six earned runs and 19 hits in 37 innings while striking out 47 (1.95 ERA). Harden and Randy Wells are big reasons the Cubs are still afloat with Lilly and Zambrano on the DL.

But once Harden left the game, the tune quickly changed. Let me know if you've heard this one: Carlos Marmol walked three and hit a batter, and he walked in a run.

Yeah, I've heard it too.

What the f*** is wrong with Carlos Marmol? How can a big league pitcher have such bad control? It seems like 75 percent of the time he throws, he has no idea where the ball's going to go. For those of you unfamiliar with the sport of baseball, that's not an effective way to pitch.

Is it worth entertaining the notion of sending Marmol down to the minors to try to find his command? It seems to me that Lou can't just keep trotting him out there in the 8th inning of close games. He could use Grabow and Guzman as the primary set-up men. I realize Marmol has great "stuff," and he certainly has the potential to mow guys down, but perhaps a little time in Iowa would help him figure things out.

Grabow and Guzman came on to pitch effectively, and Gregg had a perfect 11th, but he then allowed a leadoff home run to Ben Francisco in the 12th. That turned out to be the decisive run, and the Cubs lost game one of the series with Samardzija starting tonight and Cliff Lee on the mound for the Phillies Thursday.

With an early 2-0 lead and Rich Harden dealing (he took a perfect game into the 6th), it looked like the Cubs were taking advantage of some more home cookin'. The Cubs' home winning percentage is second only to the Giants in the NL, and they were 8-2 in their last 10 at Wrigley prior to last night.

But after leaving 13 men on base in each of the last two games in Colorado, the Cubs stranded 11 more on Tuesday. They had several chances--especially early--to build a bigger lead, but refused to take advantage. Their .232 average with runners in scoring position is the worst in the league. Contrast that with the Cardinals, who are batting .263 in RBI situations, and you get an idea why the Cubs are looking up at them in the standings. For whatever reason, the Cubs seem to find ways to lose this year after consistently finding ways to win last year.

On the bright side, the Cardinals lost to Justin Lehr and the Reds, so the divisional deficit remains at three games. The Cardinals will have Chris Carpenter on the mound tonight.

By the way, I've talked a lot about the Rookie of the Year competition, which includes J.A. Happ, who pitched well and got a no decision last night. But I need to mention that Tommy Hanson, a 22-year-old Braves rookie who was called up in June, improved to 7-2 last night. He has a 3.05 ERA, and has placed himself firmly in the rearview mirror of Happ and Randy Wells.

And it isn't J.A. Happ who will go to the pen with Pedro coming off the DL tonight, it's veteran Jamie Moyer. And he ain't happy about it.

From the blogs

Is Carlos Zambrano the most overpaid player in baseball? David Kaplan thinks so. Jorge Says No! disagrees, as do I.

The dynasty is over

The Nationals' eight-game winning streak ended with a 8-1 loss to the Braves. Don't look now, Phillies--they're only 23 1/2 games behind you!

Sexual harassment isn't funny ...

... but this is hilarious.

Things I think I know after one of the season's worst losses

Sunday: Marlins 3, Cubs 2

• Kevin Gregg will be okay. Until his last two games, in which he imploded for two blown saves against the team that traded him a few months ago, Gregg had a two-month period in which he converted 13/15 saves, posted a 2.33 ERA, and walked just eight men in 27 innings.
• Jake Fox should play damn near every day.
• Ryan Dempster should have had a rehab start. He looked terrible against the Astros last week, but perhaps he just needed time to get settled. Sunday's start was his best since early June.
• It'll feel better if we just focus on the fact that the Cardinals lost to Roy Oswalt's rookie replacement, keeping the Cubs within 1/2 game of first.
  

News flash

Matt Holliday went 0-for-4 on Sunday. His average as a Cardinals plummeted to .541.

Did you know ...

In the last two seasons, the Pirates have traded Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche, Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny.

Predictive analysis

The All-Star break is not only a time to look back at how the Cubs have done--it's also a time to see how me and my fellow predictors have done. With 53 percent of the games in the books, it's time to see how Trevor, Andrew and I are doing in our annual prediction challenge, originally posted here.

Cubs wins
Brandon 92
Trevor 89
Andrew 90

The Cubs are on pace for 81 wins. Obviously, we all hope the Cubs find a groove at some point in the second half, something they never really got around to in the first half. That said, the Cubs would need to go 48-28 in their remaining games for me to even tie this one, 47-29 in Andrew's case. Trevor's sitting pretty.

Zambrano wins
Brandon 17
Trevor 17
Andrew 19

Historically, Trevor and I always predict about 19, 20, or even 22 wins for Big Z. Andrew, always the realist, goes lower. But something went terribly awry this year and Trevor and I dipped below Andrew with our predictions. Zambrano is sitting on just five wins, however, so Andrew might have to hand over his Zambrano Wins Prediction Trophy in a few months. (Note: that trophy does not really exist, though it'd be pretty sweet if it did.)

Fukudome average
Brandon .274
Trevor .271
Andrew .280

Fukudome was batting .338 at the end of April. He was down to .309 at the end of May. Two months into the season, none of us were even close. But who knew that the player who's probably least in tune to the history of June swoons at Wrigley Field would be the biggest June swooner of them all. Fukudome hit .169 in June to drop his average below all of our predictions, to .256. He's dropped even more since then, and stands at .251 at the break. I'm completely Fuked on this one, as Trevor and Andrew sandwiched me, and Trevor's pessimism looks like it might once again take the day.

Gregg saves
Brandon 31
Trevor 29
Andrew 23

Oooh, this is a good one. Gregg is on pace for 30 saves (16 currently). If the Cubs do indeed improve in the second half, and Gregg stays healthy, I've got a chance to take it. Andrew needs a Gregg implosion to have a shot, but he's allowed just 2 ER in his last 18 appearances (Gregg, not Andrew).

Soto home runs
Brandon 29
Trevor 27
Andrew 24

Uh-oh. Perhaps this should be our collective mulligan. Soto has just eight dingers, and Andrew's looking good on the low end. You would have THOUGHT that Soto might IMPROVE upon last year's 23 HR, but nooooooo, he had to go and suck it up in the first half, and now he's out for 3-4 weeks meaning 29 HR is pretty much completely out of the picture. Stupid Soto.

Marshall wins
Brandon 12
Trevor 12
Andrew 10

Dammit. Marshall has just three wins, and he appears to be in the bullpen for good with Randy Wells holding down the fifth starter job with aplomb. Andrew can take this one to the bank. Though a bank probably wouldn't assign much monetary value to a baseball prediction.

Team double plays turned
Brandon 149
Trevor 128
Andrew 128

The Cubs have been terrible in this statistic for several years, and though they're still 22nd in the majors, there has been a noticeable difference. With 77 DPs turned thus far, they're on pace to turn 145 when all's said and done. Keep those twin killings comin', Cubbies!

So here's how the final standings would look if everyone played exactly the same way in the final 76 games as they did in the first 86.

Trevor 3
Brandon 3
Andrew 2

There's an extra one in there because Trevor and I are headed for a tie in the "Zambrano wins" category.

But enough predicting, let's play the games!

Lilly wins for the 6th time at Wrigley; Cubs prepare for doubleheader

Saturday: Cubs 5, Cardinals 2

The Cubs got the win they needed behind All-Star Ted Lilly and his '08 Dempster-like ability to dominate at home. He's now 6-1 at home with an ERA under two, while his ERA on the road is 4.66. The win was the 100th of Lilly's career, making him the second Cubs' starter to earn his 100th victory this season (joining Carlos Zambrano, who accomplished the feat June 5).

The biggest lowlight of the game was Derrek Lee leaving due to neck spasms. He dealt with this issue earlier in the season, and while it's good that the All-Star break is just one day away, the Cubs could certainly use Lee in the lineup for today's doubleheader.

While Lee contributed to the offense on Saturday with a double and a run, Jeff Baker was the one cooking up the most problems for the Cardinals. Baker was 0-for-5 as a Cub heading into the game, but went 2-for-3 with 2 RBI and a walk to earn the love of Wrigley's fans. His most impressive moment, though, was a double play he turned with a barehanded catch-and-throw at second.

Soriano went 1-for-3 with a walk, and saw more pitches (20) than any other Cubs batter. And Ryan Theriot's 2-for-3 day raised his average to .297, bringing him within shouting distance of being the only Cub with a .300 batting average (other than Ramirez, who has played in just 23 games).

Marmol made things interesting once again (and how is his ERA just 3.73?), and Gregg had to come in to clean things up. While it's unfortunate that Lou had to use both of them on the day before a doubleheader, Lilly did the Cubs a huge favor by going eight innings.

Will Cubs go after Ryan?

As Jim Hendry scours the trade market and waiver wire for potential help, here's hoping he will take a look at recently released B.J. Ryan. The left-handed reliever signed a huge deal in 2006, but has battled injuries this year and the Blue Jays released him Wednesday. He will clear waivers Monday, at which point the Cubs might take a look. The Jays are on the hook for his contract both this year and next, so signing him to a minor league deal would require a commitment of only the major league minimum salary. Considering the low risk and high upside, it's worth looking into.

Cubs chop Braves in 11, end road woes

Let's take a look at some more ex-Cubs, NL West style:

Matt Murton, Rockies

Murton, who topped my "favorite Cubs" list during his tenure in Chicago, was traded to the A's last July in the Rich Harden deal. He played nine games for the A's and was just 3-for-30. He was then traded to Colorado this February, and has appeared in 20 games. He's batting .275 with a home run and four RBI, and because I like him so much, I'm even going to link to the video of him jacking one out of Coors Field.

Chad Gaudin, Padres

Gaudin and his beard were released in April and signed by San Diego later that month. Chad has made seven starts for the Padres, and is 2-3 with a 4.77 ERA. Oddly, six of his seven starts have been on the road this year, and his one start at Petco was a strong six-inning outing against the Giants.

Henry Blanco, Padres

Blanco is another guy that the Padres signed off the Cubs' scrapheap. Some, including myself, were surprised the Cubs didn't try to retain him, as he had a career year with a .292 average while throwing out 45% of potential base stealers. He's played in 21 games as a backup this year, and is struggling with a .194 average. On the bright side, three of his 12 hits have left the yard.

Bob Howry, Giants


Signed in December as a free agent, Howry has made the second-most appearances out of the 'pen for San Fran. His ERA is up there, though, at 5.12.




Wednesday: Cubs 3, Braves 2, 11 inn.

The Cubs bullpen showed some moxie, and the result was the team's first road win since May 10. Ted Lilly had another quality start (that's seven out of 10 for him), and Marmol, Guzman and Gregg combined for four innings with just one hit allowed and no walks. But the best moment of the game was when Micah Hoffpauir had a pinch-hit RBI single to put the Cubs ahead in the 11th--and the hit came off a lefty. Hoffpauir is batting just .154 on the season against southpaws.

The worst thing from Wednesday's game: Fontenot and Theriot combined to have three at-bats in the late innings with the goal of bunting a runner to second, and they failed all three times. When even your tiny players can't bunt, it's tough to play small ball.

After surviving Derek Lowe, the Cubs will face another tough pitcher Thursday in Jair Jurrjens. The 23-year-old is 5-2 with a 2.59 ERA, and has never faced the Cubs.

Why?

This movie's going to be terrible.

Sweep in the heart of Texas

After taking two of two from the Astros, the Cubs are now 6-1 in May and have moved back to their high-water mark of the season, four games over .500. A big reason for their recent success? Quality starts from the Cubs rotation.

A quality start is defined as six innings or more while allowing three or fewer earned runs. With Harden pitching into the 8th on Wednesday and allowing three runs, followed by Lilly's strong six inning, two run performance on Thursday, the Cubs are now tied for the major league lead with 17 quality starts. Somewhat surprisingly, the team they're tied with is the Brewers, whom the Cubs will face this weekend.

The resurgence of the Cubs offense hasn't hurt either. In their last seven, the Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs/game (strangely, they've scored either four, six, or eight runs in every game). They've now scored the sixth most runs in the league and are in the middle of the pack (ninth) in on-base percentage. And another stat I really like: the Cubs are fifth in stolen bases with 18, just three fewer than the league leaders who have 21 (Theriot leads the team with six). Going back to 2000, the highest the Cubs have finished was sixth in 2006.

One more good sign: after recording just one save in the first 21 games, Kevin Gregg has recorded four in the last seven games.

So for the second time this season, the Cubs will fly from Houston to Milwaukee. Randy Wells will make his season debut tonight against Dave Bush, and will do his best in the next couple weeks to minimize the damage of Zambrano's trip to the DL. If Zambrano is ready to return around May 19 against the Cardinals, Wells will most likely make two starts--one tonight and one against either San Diego or Houston next week.

Tonight's matchup will be followed by Dempster/Gallardo and then Marshall/Suppan on Sunday as the Cubs try to improve upon their 10-7 record against the NL Central.

Cubs trade Gathright
Joey Gathright is really fast. "How fast is he?" Joey Gathright is so fast, he's been run out of town after just 28 days.

Worthless acquisition (worthless in part because he did nothing at the plate or on the bases and in part because Piniella seemed to have no interest in finding out if he had the potential to contribute) Joey Gathright was traded to the Orioles today for Ryan Freel. The Orioles will pay part of Freel's $3.3 million salary.

The 33-year-old utility man was traded from the Reds to the O's in December. He has a lifetime .271 average and stole over 35 bases in three consecutive years from 2004-2006. Freel has played just nine games this season after landing on the DL April 21 due to a head injury sustained after being hit with an errant pickoff attempt.

For now, this trade appears to be a wash. Gathright had contributed nothing to the roster, and Freel seems unlikely to make a significant impact either, as he hasn't done much in the majors since '06. But, I always liked Freel with the Reds--he plays the game hard and could provide some speed off the bench. He is also just 5'9, which means we now have a full Lollipop Guild with Miles, Theriot, Fontenot and Freel, all of whom are 5'11 or shorter (not that 5'11 is that short, but in professional sports other than horseback riding, it is!).

Ace in a hole

Whew! I had to take a couple of deep breaths after Friday's thrilling renewal of the classic Cubs/Cardinals rivalry. In a game the Cubs should have walked away with (Carlos Zambrano vs. P.J. Walters, who was making his Major League debut), a 3-0 Cubs lead turned into a 5-3 deficit turned into a 5-5 tie turned into a 7-5 deficit turned into a dramatic 8-7 victory when Soriano drove a low slider from Chris Perez out to left center. It was the first truly nice day at Wrigley this season, and the fans on hand surely enjoyed the action on the field just as much as the weather.

Lots of good and a little bad in this game:

Good:
-Soriano's home run was his 5th of the season, which ties him for the league lead and more than doubles his combined HR total from the last two Aprils (two last year, zero in '07). He also has nine RBI, more than the combined six he had the last two Aprils. You could argue that every home run Sori has hit has been clutch--three of them have been in the 8th inning or later, and every one has either tied the game or given the Cubs the lead.

-Heilman got his second win of the year, pitching a scoreless 8th.

-Marmol threw five bad pitches to begin the 9th, resulting in a walk and a hit batsman, and just when I said he was going to have to rely solely on his slider, he blew three fastballs by Ryan Ludwick and then induced a double play ball from Khalil Greene to tally his second save. Marmol has yet to allow an earned run this season.

-The heart of the Cubs lineup (Lee-Hoffpauir-Ramirez) was 7-13 with three runs and four RBI.

-Soto's been struggling in his comeback from injury, but he drove in a run with a single to right, and later walked.

-Zambrano was the only starter without a hit.

Bad:
-Big Z went seven innings, but allowed seven runs on nine hits, including three home runs. The outing raised Zambrano's ERA to 5.21.

-While they scored two runs in the opening frame, the Cubs had 1st and 3rd with one out, but didn't get any more. In the second, they had the bases loaded with nobody out, but only pushed one run across. Thus far, the Cubs are batting just .220 with runners in scoring position, 14th in the NL (I know, it's early, but the Cubs need to start getting some of those big hits).

-Heilman, Guzman and Cotts are all tied for the league lead in appearances by a reliever, with six. It was good to get seven innings out of Carlos today--we need more of that in the future.

I think we were all hoping from a little more consistency out of Zambrano this year. He's had two bad starts out of three, and has one win in those three starts. But, a win's a win and the Cubs stand at 6-4 after their first 10.

While there's no such thing as a must-win in April, the Cubs were on the verge of falling back to .500, losing three straight at Wrigley and falling into a 2-0 hole in the series. Instead, the series is even with Dempster and Lilly taking the hill this weekend.

Other notes
-News Friday was that Chris Carpenter is expected to miss 4-8 weeks, so the Cardinals may be relying on P.J. Walters and Co. for quite a while.

-Milton Bradley might face a suspension for making contact with home plate umpire Larry Vanover when he was ejected for arguing a called third strike Thursday. Can we time the suspension to coincide with one of his non-DL injuries, like the one suffered this week?

-Is Marmol the closer now? Kevin Gregg hadn't pitched since Monday, but Marmol was out there in the 9th on Friday. To be fair, Marmol was warming up in the 8th when the Cubs were trailing by one, but still. It certainly has not helped Gregg's cause that he's walked five guys in four innings. It seems to me that Piniella may just ride the hot hand without having an official closer.

MLB note
What is going on with these cycles? 13 days into the season, we've seen three cycles. The Twins' Jason Kubel accomplished the feat Friday, capping it off with a go-ahead grand slam in the eighth inning. He's just the seventh player in MLB history to hit a grand slam as part of a cycle.

2009 Cubs predictions

I would like to share with you not only my predictions for the 2009 Cubs season, but also those of my good friends Trevor Sierra and Andrew Kapral. The three of us have an annual tradition of looking into our crystal balls (or perhaps Christol ball, in my case?) and predicting a few elements of each upcoming Cubs season, and I figured it would be a nice kickoff to the 2009 campaign to share our predictions with you, and also to solicit your predictions.

Before I move on, I want to congratulate Andrew Kapral on his marriage to Jen Stephan (yesterday!). The event--which included a singing of "Go Cubs Go"--was wonderful, and I wish the happy couple all the best. On this day, we will even forgive Jen for being a Pirates fan. That is, of course, assuming that she has forgiven herself for being a Pirates fan.

For the record, I won a narrow victory in last year's prediction challenge, coming closest in three of the categories while Trevor and Andrew each tallied two. Way back in '07, Andrew dominated the competition, coming closest in four of the seven categories, with me taking two and Trevor just one.

And now, drum roll please ...

*2008 total in parentheses

Cubs wins (97)
Brandon 92
Trevor 89
Andrew 90

Zambrano wins (14)
Brandon 17
Trevor 17
Andrew 19

Fukudome average (.257)
Brandon .274
Trevor .271
Andrew .280

Gregg saves (29)
Brandon 31
Trevor 29
Andrew 23

Soto home runs (23)
Brandon 29
Trevor 27
Andrew 24

Marshall wins (3)
Brandon 12
Trevor 12
Andrew 10

Team double plays turned (118)
Brandon 149
Trevor 128
Andrew 128

At first, I didn't understand why Andrew suggested that last category. But then I did some research and discovered that the Cubs have been atrocious at turning double plays over recent years, making this an interesting category to predict. The last five years, the Cubs have finished last in the majors twice, second to last once, third to last once, and 26th overall once. So they have finished in the bottom five in double plays turned every year since 2004. The last time they were decent was 2003, when an infield led by Alex Gonzalez and Mark Grudzielanek turned 157 twin killings and finished 15th in the majors. And it's worth noting that a botched double play may have cost the Cubs a shot at the World Series that year (Game 6 vs. the Marlins).

Final NL Central standings
Brandon
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

Trevor
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Astros
Reds
Brewers
Pirates

OK, readers, I want to know what you expect from this year's Cubs. Share your predictions (in whatever categories you want) in the comments!

Taking a spin around the world of sports

It would not be surprising to see three or four Big East teams in the Elite Eight, and even two or three in the Final Four. Of course, anyone can get hot in March, but the Big East teams have the advantage of having faced the heat all season.

-Brandon Christol, Feb. 23, 2009, from the blog "Wait 'til this Year"


I know, I shouldn't toot my own horn, but it's my blog and I needed to make myself feel good about something after a weekend filled with tragedy and despair.

Louisville had a chance to make it three Big East teams in the Final Four, but the Cardinals--normally a second half team--absolutely folded up their tent in the second half against Michigan State on Sunday. They were outscored 34-25 in the latter half, and shot 10-18 from the free throw line for the game. They shot just 38% from the field and were outrebounded by eight. Not a strong performance by the top overall seed in the tournament. So only two Big East teams will head to Detroit, but still an incredible tournament for the conference.

On the other side of the bracket, I cannot wait to see Villanova's defense go up against UNC's offense. North Carolina has averaged 89 points in their four tourney victories, but Villanova shut down a good Duke team in the regional semifinal and has allowed just 66 points per game in the tourney. They play great team defense, but UNC has numerous weapons. Should be fun.

One reason I'm left with zero (that's right: zip, zilch, nada) Final Four teams in my bracket is because of those all-important free throws. Here are the free throw numbers for my Final Four teams in the games in which they were eliminated:

Memphis: 18-32 (56%)
Pitt: 21-29 (72%)
Louisville: 10-18 (55%)
Oklahoma: 10-16 (62%)

That's 62% overall. My teams just kept shooting themselves in the foot when they stepped up to the charity stripe. Oh well, you live and you learn. I learned that a bracket can go downhill faster than Bode Miller: I had 14 of 16 Sweet Sixteen teams, yet none of my Final Four picks are booking hotels in Motown.

The Tiger and the O'Hair

Tiger's back, baby. He trailed by five strokes entering the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he stormed back to tie it and nailed a 15-footer for birdie on the 72nd hole to win by one. You gotta love it. Tiger's been solid but not quite Tigerish since returning from injury, and then he puts it all together in his final tournament prior to the Masters, which starts April 9. Tiger is now in 12th place in the 2009 FedEx Cup standings despite playing just three tournaments while everyone else in the top 30 has played at least twice that many.

Gregg to close for Cubs

In one of the few decisions that remained for Lou Piniella this spring, Kevin Gregg was named the Cubs closer Sunday, while Carlos Marmol will be the primary set-up man. Gregg has more experience closing (29 saves last year, 32 in 2007) and has not allowed a run in 8.1 innings this spring. I've always thought the closer position is overrated (since the game is often decided in the 7th or 8th inning rather than the 9th), so I'm not too worked up about this decision. It will be nice to have someone with Marmol's stuff to bring on in the late innings, as was the case last year when Marmol put out many a fire. And if Gregg struggles or gets hurt, Marmol should be able to fill in nicely.

Yes, there was snow on the ground today in Chicago, but have no fear--baseball season is just a week away.