Cubs' 2009 castoffs: What are they doing now?

*statistics accurate through Tuesday

Milton Bradley
There have already been a couple Bradley updates on this blog, but here's another: he's been slowed by a calf injury and, presumably, by the fact that he's certifiably insane. He's hitting .214 with two home runs and 12 RBI. He has a relatively poor .313 OBP. Oh, and he's mad again.

***UPDATE: Bradley is out indefinitely until he receives an outside assessment and a plan to address his issues. The Bradley/Silva trade is approaching Todd Hundley-for-Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek level.

Aaron Miles
Miles disappointed the Cubs immensely in 2009, and did the same to the Reds in spring training. They designated him for assignment (i.e. released him) on April 5, and he signed a minor league contract with the Cardinals last Tuesday.

Reed Johnson
Jim Hendry let Johnson go in favor of free agent Xavier Nady. Johnson found a home with the Dodgers, and here's the comparison thus far:

Player-------AB-------Avg.------HR-----RBI-----OBP
Nady--------34-------.176--------1--------4-------.333
Johnson----48-------.271--------0-------4-------.286

So, basically, it's a big shoulder shrug of a move at this point. However, there's a $2.5 million difference in their salaries, so Nady needs to get it going to make Hendry's investment a good one.

Andres Blanco
He has only amassed 33 at-bats with the Rangers thus far--his slash line (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) is an underwhelming .212/.278/.212.

Rich Harden
Rich Harden has been SO Rich Harden with the Rangers. He has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his six starts this season, yet he's gone five innings or more just three times. His walk total in his first five starts: 5, 3, 6, 4, 5. Not good. He's had two pretty good starts in a row, however, including a dominant outing on Monday.

Aaron Heilman
You probably know what he's up to after having seen him pitch against the Cubs this weekend: six earned runs in just 10.2 innings on the season (5.06 ERA), plus five walks and two home runs.

Kevin Gregg
Gregg lost out on the closer role in spring training, but Jason Frasor's struggles have resulted in several save opportunities for him. He's 7-for-7 in those chances, has struck out 16 guys in 13 innings, and has a miniscule 0.69 ERA. Basically, he's been awesome. If we would have known he was going to do that, he would have fit real nicely in the eighth inning for the Cubs!

Chicago rumors

If the Bears do decide to axe Lovie, I hope they move quickly. ESPN reports that Bill Cowher is likely to coach in 2010, and has already been mentioned in connection with potential job openings in Carolina and Tampa Bay.

While Mike Shanahan was rumored to have interest in a potential Bears job, ESPN's Adam Schefter recently tweeted: "Despite speculation to contrary, Mike Shanahan will not wind up coaching Chicago nor Houston. Too much respect for Lovie and (Gary) Kubiak.''

I'm not sure that "respect" precludes you from succeeding a fellow coach, but this would be disappointing if true. Either way, it seems likely that the Bears would have better coaching options this offseason than next. But those options could start to dwindle shortly after the season's end.

Fernando Who?

Phil Rogers suggests that the Cubs could look at the Rays' Fernando Perez to fill their center field void. The move would certainly be a gamble, as Perez played just 18 games last year to the tune of a .206 average.

Meanwhile, Bleed Cubbie Blue prefers a Reed Johnson/Sam Fuld platoon. I'm not necessarily sold on Fuld from an offensive standpoint, but I wouldn't mind seeing Reed Johnson as part of the solution. I will say that Johnson and Fuld in center with Fukudome in right would significantly improve the Cubs' outfield defense over last year.

Vinny survived Christmas; what about New Year's?

ESPN indicates that the Bulls have already decided to fire Coach Vinny Del Negro, but would like to have a replacement in place before making it official.

Not only would a new coach still have time to turn this into a respectable season, but he'd have the opportunity to build a reputation in the hopes of luring some of the big-time free agents due to hit the market this summer. The Bulls will have more cap space than almost any other team this offseason.

Hopefully Paxson will be able to snag a coach who already has a reputation, though, such as Avery Johnson, as opposed to another guy who has never coached a game in his life.

No arbitration for Cubs' free agents

The Cubs declined to offer arbitration to any of their four eligible players, including Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and Chad Fox.

It's rather difficult to analyze the Harden decision. While he made 26 starts in '09 and the Cubs can use starters given that Lilly is out until at least late April, the Cubs know more than anyone about Harden's shoulder and how much work the trainers had to put in to keep Harden on the mound. It's still possible that Harden will re-sign with the Cubs, though it would likely require that Harden get offered nothing better than about one year and $7 or $8 million from any other potential suitor.

It's more possible that Reed Johnson will return. Offering Johnson arbitration would not have affected the Cubs' draft picks (because Johnson is not listed as a Type A or Type B free agent), but likely would have resulted in a raise despite the fact that he was limited to 65 games last year due to injury. I wouldn't mind seeing Johnson in a Cubs uniform again in 2010.

The hot stove has been pretty cold all around baseball thus far, but perhaps things will heat up when the winter meetings begin this Sunday. No doubt Jim Hendry will continue to shop Milton Bradley. Joel Sherman of the New York Post still thinks a Bradley for Pat Burrell swap is realistic, though one would think that would have to turn into a three-way deal since Burrell plays left field (about as poorly as Soriano!).

What's on deck for the Cubs?

There are still home runs to be hit, strikes to be thrown, and rings to be won.

Just not at Wrigley Field.

For the Cubs, the sights are now squarely set on 2010. This season reminded many Cubs fans of the Cubs of old, and in fact many of the Cubs are getting old. But it's in with the new as owner Tom Ricketts takes over the controls, though he and Jim Hendry don't have a great deal of wiggle room given the big, backloaded contracts Hendry has passed out like candy corn over the last few years.

So where do the Cubs go from here? First, there are the free agents: Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and John Grabow.

There's no doubt Harden will test the free agent waters. I've said before that he's not worth big money and multiple years, but it's possible he won't find a suitor willing to give him either one. He's worth a mid-level, one-year deal. I think we all know that Hendry took white out to Gregg's name in the media guide right around mid-August. I would definitely welcome back Reed Johnson, who was of course hurt in 2009 but plays hard and is a solid platoon player or starter if need be. And Hendry's already working on a two-year deal for Grabow, who had success in his 30 games with the Cubs this year.

You can already fill out a good deal of the 2010 depth chart in pen:

• Soto isn't going anywhere, but needs to show up in 2008 shape so he can get back to 2008 form.
  
• Lee and Ramirez are set at the corners.
  
• Theriot seems a safe bet to be at short.
• Fukudome figures to be in center or right.
• Soriano's contract is unmoveable, so you can write his name in the spot marked "LF" (please let his bum knee be the reason he flailed away at the plate like a Little Leaguer and played left field like a Little Leaguer who's only on the team because his dad's the coach).

So second base and right field/center field are on Hendry's to-do list. With little payroll flexibility and what would seem to be an offense bound for a rebound, I still like the idea of Andres Blanco getting a shot at second. He would bat eighth and likely provide little pop, but he's the best defender on the Cubs' 40-man roster and it's always important to have good glove work up the middle. Free agent options include Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Again, I'd prefer the Cubs stay in-house at 2B.

Suggesting that there's a question mark in the outfield of course assumes that Hendry is able to pull off an offseason magic trick worthy of a show on the Vegas strip: unloading Milton Bradley and the $21 million remaining on his contract. But even though Hendry is behind the 8 ball and every GM in baseball knows it, he's also handcuffed and has almost no choice but to ship him out.

If Hendry hopes to make an upgrade somewhere, outfield would seem to be the place to do it. The free agent class in center includes Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli and Corey Patterson (kidding). In right, you've got Bobby Abreu, Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns (if his option is not picked up), and others.

If the Cubs choose instead to spend their money on a second baseman and/or bullpen help, there are in-house options in the outfield: Reed Johnson in center and Fukudome in right is one of them. Jake Fox is another option in right, perhaps in a platoon with Fukudome. Will Fox hurt the team with his glove? Most likely. But Bradley was no stud himself, and we all saw Soriano bumble his way around left, so how much of a drop-off would it really be?

With the chatter about Zambrano hitting the trade block cooling down, the rotation would figure to be Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and either Marshall, Gorzelanny or Samardzija (my money would
be on Gorzelanny).

And last, but definitely not least, the bullpen. Carlos Marmol will be the closer, having finished the season with 12 consecutive saves. Gorzelanny and Guzman should be the G-Men in the setup role. Aaron Heilman is (unfortunately) likely to be in the mix as well, along with Marshall and Samardzija (or Gorzelanny). Other unprovens will have the opportunity to make the squad, including Justin Berg (12 IP, 1 BB, 0.75 ERA), Esmailin Caridad (19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA), and Jeff Stevens (bad).

As always, the free agent market provides an array of options, including Chad Cordero, Danys Baez, Joe Beimel and Darren Oliver (the last two being lefties). Signing relievers will always and forever be a complete crapshoot (see: Brad Lidge in '08 vs. '09, or B.J. Ryan, or Ryan Franklin coming out of nowhere).

Hendry doesn't have much choice but to bring back a near mirror image of the 2009 team. But it's reasonable to assume it will be one of those goofy, distorted mirror images. Zambrano with just nine wins? Soriano with only 55 RBI? Ramirez missing half the season?

You can accuse me of being overly optimistic, but I think the Cubs have a very good chance of turning things around without turning the roster over. The fact is, there's over $130 million of talent in their dugout, and a whole slew of players fell so far below their career averages in 2009 that, well, their career averages now look nothing like they did heading into the season. In this case, what comes down must go up.

The off-field action will all go down starting in just about a month. Players can declare free agency starting 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series, and Hendry's real work will begin at that time. Hopefully his work will lead to Cubs fans enjoying playoff baseball one year from today instead of looking forward to 2011.

A recipe for success

Clearly, the Cubs' current lineup is not getting the job done. Hendry shook things up a bit on Sunday by firing hitting coach Gerald Perry and replacing him with Triple-A hitting coach Von Joshua (Joshua was the White Sox hitting coach from 1998-2001). I can't recall offhand a team firing their hitting coach and then suddenly scoring runs in bunches, but I suppose shaking things up is worth a try. It's certainly not fair to lay all the Cubs' woes at Perry's feet; after all, he was the hitting coach last year when the Cubs consistently worked good at-bats and tore the cover off the ball. But perhaps a new personality and some fresh perspective will give the bats a lift.

What else can the Cubs do to help right the ship? Here are a few thoughts:

Get Miles out of the lineup. Why is he starting every day? He's batting .202 and slugging a pathetic .254. Bobby Scales, who was inexplicably sent down when Harden came off the DL, was hitting just .241 but was slugging .466. He's also a better defensive second baseman. The Cubs could have sent Waddell down or gotten rid of the useless (and seldom used) David Patton instead. Even Andres Blanco would be an improvement over Miles.

Start Reed Johnson, even against righties. I'm not saying Kosuke should never play again, but let's give Johnson a chance. Fukudome has done absolutely nothing at the plate in the last few weeks, and Johnson (.272/.333/.437) deserves a chance to prove himself after a great season in '08.


Bring up Jake Fox. Fox will come up and DH when the Cubs head to Detroit on June 23. If he continues to rake, give him a shot at starting every now and then and let's see how bad is defense really is. He may be able to make up for his glove with his bat.

Move Soriano down in the order. If Soriano's going to strikeout no matter where he bats, then I suppose it doesn't matter all that much. But you simply cannot have a player with a .300 OBP (.268 in June) at the top of the order.

Start Hoffpauir occasionally. I hate to compliment Tony La Russa, but I believe part of the reason the Cardinals get so much out of so little year after year is because every player knows he needs to prove himself in order to stay in the lineup. Start Hoffpauir in left and/or right field every now and then. If he produces, give him more playing time. If not, you may see the residual effect of Bradley and/or Soriano stepping up their game to prove themselves.


Well, there are my two cents. What do you think the Cubs need to do to turn their offensive fortunes around?

**UPDATE**They're listening to me! Okay, maybe not, but the Cubs recalled Jake Fox Tuesday and placed Jason Waddell on the DL.

Life's a pitch

Some phenomenal pitching performances Sunday, including:

-Aaron Harang, a (very) early candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. After a 16-6 season in 2007, Harang completely fell apart last year, putting up another "6," but in the wrong column--he was 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA, his highest ERA since 2004. Sunday's line for Harang vs. the Pirates: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. He's now 1-1 with a .64 ERA.

-Kyle Lohse, that dirty bastard. I was confident that Lohse was only good last year because he was playing for a contract. After signing a 4-year, $41 million contract in September, I figured the real Kyle Lohse would once again stand up. In 2005-2007, he won 9, 5 and 9 games, respectively. Last year, after being picked up off the scrapheap by Dave Duncan and the Cardinals, he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA.

Well, Lohse absolutely mowed down the Astros Sunday, retiring 24 in a row at one point and finishing with a 3-hit shutout. He's now 2-0 with a .56 ERA. Perhaps Todd Wellemeyer will be the one to fall off the table this season?

-Erik Bedard couldn't quite post a complete game, but that's partly due to the fact that his team tallied just three hits and one run. But Bedard was still able to eke out a 1-0 win with 8.1 innings of 3-hit, shutout baseball over the A's.

-Randy Wolf beat the D'Backs with a strong 7-inning outing, allowing just two hits and one run.

-Oh, and if that's not enough for you: Johan Santana gave up no earned runs over seven innings (three hits, 13 K) but lost on account of Josh Johnson's complete game five-hitter (one run).

If we combine these six outings, here's what it looks like: 49.1 IP, 19 hits, 2 ER.

One more time: that's 49.1 IP, 2 ER. That's an ERA of .36. Good day to be on a mound.

Cubs notes

• Soriano's four home runs are more than he had in the month of April combined in 2007 and 2008.

• Game six of the season, Bradley leaves with injury. We'll wait before we panic, but groin pain never sounds good.

• The Brewers became the second team this season to walk in four runs in one inning (Atlanta did the same favor for the Phillies earlier this week).

• Did you see Prince Fielder tip his hat to Reed Johnson after he robbed him of a grand slam? That's good sportsmanship and just plain good fun.
  

• The last two games of the Cubs/Brewers series ended with Prince Fielder striking out with a chance to tie it or take the lead.

• The Cubs drew 10 walks on Sunday.

"Zero" watch
-The Nationals continued their love of futility, losing 8-5 to the Braves. The 0-6 start is their worst since 1998, when they lost their first seven contests.
-The Indians, on the other hand, finally found the win column with an 8-4 victory over Toronto.

Movin' on Down?

Word out of Mesa is that Piniella is finally considering moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot (click post title for Tribune blog post). Many Cubs fans have banged their heads against the wall for two years about this, as Soriano seems suited for the middle of the lineup rather than the top. Sori has averaged 36 home runs over the last four years, and while he had 71 combined stolen bases in '05 and '06, he's had just 19 each of the last two seasons.

On-base percentage is often cited (correctly, if you ask me) as the most important statistic for a leadoff man, and Soriano's career OBP is .329. Last season, his OBP as a leadoff man placed him 22nd among 32 players with at least 200 plate appearances.

So: Soriano can mash the hell out of the ball, doesn't run much, and is not prone to getting on base. Analysis: bad leadoff man.

The one thing people mention in defense of him batting leadoff is his ability to "spark the offense" when he starts the game with a dinger. I agree that it's sweet to be up 1-0 about 30 seconds into the game, but you could say the same about Ryan Braun, A-Rod, or any other home run hitter. If he hit lower in the order, the Cubs might be up 3-0 in the first, instead of just 1-0.

But here's the rub: Soriano doesn't seem to produce when hitting down in the order. Over the last three years, he boasts a .297 average in the leadoff spot, while hitting an atrocious .144 in all other spots, including a .243 average in the 5-hole, where he could possibly bat in a reshaped Cubs lineup (Fontenot, Theriot, Lee, Bradley, Soriano, Ramirez, Soto, Johnson). One could certainly argue that this is partly due to attitude, as he has typically cried foul when not batting leadoff. Can you imagine if he got over his leadoff obsession and had one of his patented hot streaks in the 5- or 6-hole instead of the leadoff spot? Last year, Soriano was 29th in the majors in home runs, but just 81st in RBI! He had fewer runs batted in than Hunter Pence! Two years ago, the disparity was even more dramatic, as he was 11th in the majors in homers, but just 102nd in RBI, behind legendary run producers like Ray Durham and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

The two most natural leadoff options would probably be Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot. Fontenot's career OBP is .369, and was a superb .395 last year. Theriot's career mark is .362, and he's averaged 21 stolen bases over the last three seasons.

Theriot played very well last season, and is a great slap hitter with an amazing ability to hit the ball to the right side. This is a great skill for a 2-hitter, as he could often produce a first-and-third situation if Fontenot gets on ahead of him. However, you'd like to have a base-stealing threat, and Fontenot is far from it (seven career stolen bases).

Theriot is a bit of a threat to run, and Fontenot, as a lefty, has a natural ability to hit the ball to the right side. I wouldn't mind seeing:

Theriot
Fontenot
Ramirez
Bradley
Lee
Soriano
Soto
Johnson/Fukudome

I hope Lou at least experiments this spring with some different options. Sure, the Cubs won 97 games last year with Sori leading off, but a) that doesn't mean there's no room for improvement, and b) in the playoffs, when every at-bat counts and pitchers tend to make fewer mistakes, Soriano goes from a spark plug to a dead battery.

I have no idea why Piniella has babied Soriano throughout his tenure in Chicago, and his quotes from today don't sound all that geniune either (“So, we’ll see. To me, he’s still my leadoff hitter. I love him in the leadoff spot. I like him in the leadoff spot. But, look, we can see how it looks. We’ve got plenty of time in the spring to see where things shake out.”). So this is all premature and probably pointless, but I'm glad Soriano finally seems amenable to a change, and it'd be nice to see Lou play around with the lineup a bit during spring training.