Series Preview: Cubs at Pirates

Image from Mouthpiecesports.com

The Pirates got off to a 7-5 start but have gone a more Pirate-like 3-10 since. Their recent slide is not the result of bad luck--the fact is, they don't do much of anything well. They've scored just 86 runs this season (second-worst in the NL) while allowing more than twice that many (175, worst in the NL). This amazingly bad run differential puts them on pace to be outscored by nearly 600 runs this season. While that's really, really unlikely to happen, it's clear that Pittsburgh is really, really bad.

Which is nothing new, of course. The Cubs went 10-4 against them last year after going 14-4 the year before. Though the Cubs will be away from home, they really need to start the road trip off right by winning--if not sweeping--this series. Fortunately, using the transitive property, we can see that the Pirates have been outscored by an average of seven runs per game in their six contests with the Brewers this year, while the Cubs have outscored the Brewers by an average of four runs per game; therefore, the Cubs will outscore the Pirates by an average of 11 runs per game in this series. That's science.

Tuesday, May 4--Ryan Dempster (2-1, 2.78) vs. LH Paul Maholm (1-2, 4.83)

Dempster has been on fire lately, even if he did lose his last start. He beat the Pirates twice last year, but had a modest 4.66 ERA against them. While it's still early, Dempster's road split is actually better than his home split so far this season--he has a 1.32 ERA in two road starts, with three walks and 13 strikeouts.

Maholm's last two starts were almost identical: 7 IP, 4 ER in both. His one start against the Cubs last year was the reverse: 4 IP, 7 ER, though the Pirates won that game 10-8 (look who got the win). He struggles against righties, so Xavier Nady is likely to get a start here against his former team.

Wednesday, May 5--Ted Lilly (1-1, 4.91) vs. Charlie "Holy crap look how bad my numbers are" Morton (0-5, 12.57)

These two matched up last September 30, with Morton throwing a complete game, four-hit shutout. In mid-August, however, Morton lasted just one inning against the Cubs and gave up 10 earned runs. Morton has been downright awful this season: he's allowed at least three earned runs in all five of his starts, given up seven long balls, and has allowed more than two hits and walks per inning pitched (2.17 WHIP). Go get 'im, boys.

It was probably unfair to assume that despite having just come off the DL, Lilly would stay in the groove he was in when he faced Milwaukee. He struggled with his control and gave up several long balls in his second start of the year last week against Arizona, giving him one great start and one terrible one on the season. Lilly was 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA against the Pirates last year. Andy LaRoche is the only current Pirate with a home run off Lilly, while Ryan Doumit is 5-for-15 in his career against him.

Thursday, May 6--Randy Wells (3-0, 3.45) vs. LH Brian "TBD" Burres (1-1, 6.00)

The Pirates have not yet announced Thursday's starter--someone needs to fill in for the injured Ross Ohlendorf. Burres did so admirably last week with 5.1 scoreless against the Dodgers, and seems a likely candidate for the series finale. Only Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady have faced him more than three times--Nady is 2-for-7 against him while Byrd's one hit off him was a home run. Recently recalled Brian Bass would seem to be the other potential starter for this game (9.00 ERA in 2 IP).

Wells had his worst start of the season on Friday, though he still got the win. He had success against the Pirates last year, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-5 against him.

Hendry gets started

I suppose I'm happy the Cubs re-signed John Grabow. I mean, it's nice to have a solid lefty in the 'pen, but I'm less than ebullient because it's hard to justify $7.5 million over two years for a solid lefty out of the 'pen. He had a good year with both the Pirates and Cubs, his second good year in a row. But the four years prior to that were less than stellar--his ERA was over 4.50 three of those four years.

On the bright side, Hendry did a nice job getting anything at all for Aaron Heilman. Trading for him last offseason was clearly a gamble; after all, he sported a 5.21 ERA in 2008. And he proved to be a disposable commodity in 2009, even though he did finish strong. So to get any kind of return on him (lefty Scott Maine and 1B Ryne White) is a win. Plus, one of the prospects' names is Ryne, like Ryne Sandberg. So he must be good.

Should I stay or should I go? The Jim Hendry version

Jim Hendry is under contract for three more years, but you'd never know it with all the recent chatter about his potential ousting. Having made more bad moves in the offseason than did Tom DeLay on "Dancing with the Stars," his future is filled with more question marks than a Spanish exam. The Trib's Rick Morrissey says he deserves another shot; the Sun-Times says the Milton Bradley signing may have sealed his fate.

There's no doubt this past offseason was a bust. From The Useless One (Joey Gathright) and The Awful One (Aaron Miles) to the trade of Mark DeRosa and the signing of Milton Bradley, Hendry turned a great, 97-win team into a slightly above average, 83-win team. It was a huge disappointment, no doubt, though they did finish five games over .500 and second in the NL Central. It was nice to see them on the right side of .500 for the third consecutive season, but with a $134 million payroll, that wasn't exactly the goal.

The decline wasn't all Hendry's fault: there were injuries, including those to Ramirez, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly and others. There were unexpectedly subpar seasons, including those by Soriano and Soto.

But Hendry does deserve the lion's share of the blame, having built a team unprepared to weather these storms. He removed leadership by trading DeRosa and letting Kerry Wood walk (though I'm still okay with the latter). He failed to build a reliable bullpen. He has now spent $78 million on average/terrible left-handed right fielders over the last two years.

The Cubs' team ERA actually improved slightly from last year, down to 3.84 from 3.87. And on defense, they committed six more errors this year versus last. But the big problem (if you hadn't yet figured this out after 161 games) was the offense: 707 runs this year after leading the league with 855 last season.

In the general managing world, Hendry didn't just strike out on 2009, he got the golden sombrero. But just as a player or manager can't be judged by one season alone, neither can a general manager. I think it's only fair that new owner Tom Ricketts look at Hendry's entire resume before deciding his fate. At the moment, Hendry's name is synonymous with Milton Bradley's, but that doesn't tell the entire story.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled a detailed history of Jim Hendry's moves as Cubs GM. It was posted last July, so it doesn't include the debacle of this past offseason, but it's interesting to look at the many moves he has made since Andy MacPhail promoted him seven years ago.

Can you recall Hendry's first move as Cubs GM? Of course you can: he traded Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen. Who could forget that? But wait. That trade wasn't as insignificant as it sounds. Less than five months later, Hendry traded Hermansen and Todd Hundley for Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros, a move that helped lead to a division title for the Cubs. It was also the first sign that Jim Hendry might be a direct descendant of King Midas. This is the kind of rabbit Hendry will need to pull out of his hat when it comes to unloading Milton Bradley.

But it was 2003's trade deadline fleecing of Pirates GM Dave Littlefield that really ignited a love affair between Hendry and Cubs fans: Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback and Bobby Hill for Aramis Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, and cash! Littlefield then gave the Cubs Randall "Sausage Beater" Simon a few weeks later (that nickname sounds dirty, but in case you've forgotten the incident that begot such a nickname, please click the link).

In an attempt to out-GM himself, Hendry pulled off a Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee trade in the 2003 offseason. He also got Michael Barrett for Damian Miller and traded for Nomar at the 2004 deadline, and the Cubs won 89 games that year, though they choked away a playoff spot in the final week of the season.

Hendry has other good moves he can point to, such as trading Sammy Sosa after he turned his back on the Cubs (and integrity), and getting rid of Michael Barrett at the right time. He also made mistakes beyond those of this past offseason, such as giving up three young pitchers for Juan Pierre and giving away Greg Maddux for Cesar "♪ You can ring my be-e-ell, You can ring my bell ♪ " Izturis.

Those are the specifics, here's the bottom line: Hendry has produced three NL Central titles in his seven years at the helm. The Cubs hadn't seen that kind of consistent success since 1938 when they accomplished the exact same feat. In fact, the Cubs have made the playoffs just 16 times in their long history, and Hendry has been behind the desk for three of them. The 182 wins in 2007 and 2008 were the most in back-to-back seasons for the Cubs since 1935-36. It's fine to lay the blame for 2009 at Hendry's feet, but you also have to give him some credit for the products he put on the field in the years prior.

Expectations-wise, 2009 was a disaster of a campaign for the Cubs. But the "W" flag still flew 83 times, and we've also seen some promise from young players such as Randy Wells, Jake Fox and Andres Blanco.

Hendry has created some serious work for whomever is in charge this offseason, but in my opinion, he's earned the chance to do that work himself. As Tom Ricketts takes over the helm, I hope he'll keep Jim Hendry on board.

Getting closer to being the closer

Wednesday: Cubs 8, Pirates 5


I say this very, very tentatively (please read slowly for effect): perhaps the Cubs have found their closer for 2010. I sort of twitched when I typed that, knowing the stomach-churning, hair-graying things that Carlos Marmol is capable of. But he's now 7-for-7 in save opportunities since being anointed the closer, and even more importantly, he's been throwing strikes. Eight of his 11 pitches were in the zone in his perfect ninth yesterday, and 11 of his 13 pitches found the zone in his perfect inning of work on Monday.

If Marmol can keep up the good work next year, Hendry (or whoever is GM) can get to work solidifying the rest of the bullpen instead of having to spend a bunch of money on a hit-or-miss closer (e.g., even the infallible Brad Lidge of '08 has an ERA upwards of seven this year).

While it obviously isn't going to result in a playoff appearance this year, the deadline trade the Cubs made is looking pretty good right about now. The Cubs hit Kevin Hart around pretty good yesterday (and he doled out six free passes), and he has struggled mightily with the Pirates to the tune of a 1-5 record and a 6.46 ERA.

Additionally, John Grabow has expressed an interest in remaining with the Cubs beyond '09, and Tom Gorzelanny may do the same (if the Cubs believe he can contribute).

Could the Pirates be any nicer to the Cubs? We've built up a 9-2 record against them this year after a 14-4 record last year, plus the aforementioned trade that's looking like a win for the Cubs. And I won't even mention the time Hendry fleeced them at the deadline in '03.

And lastly: way to go, Micah Hoffpauir. After going deep in back-to-back games, Hoffpauir has reached double digits in home runs and has also driven in 28 runs. Those stats, when fleshed out over a full season's worth of at-bats, translate to 24 HR and 62 RBI.

Let's Go, Bears

Four days and counting

The Bears are all set to play a real football game in just four days. And it's not just real cuz it counts in the standings; we're talking Bears/Packers on Sunday Night Football. The blue and orange against the green and gold kicking off the 2009-2010 version of the black and blue division. Cutler vs. Rodgers, Forte vs. Grant, Urlacher and the 4-3 vs. A.J. Hawk and the Packers' new 3-4.

Will the Bears still get off the bus running despite having a gunslinger behind center? Will the secondary get their doors blown off? Will Urlacher rebound from a poor 2008 season and be the dominant force he once was? Do the Bears have anyone who can get open and subsequently catch the ball?

I don't know the answers to all these questions, but I absolutely cannot wait to find out. Hank Williams, Jr., you don't even need to ask: I am indeed ready for some football.

***Don't forget that the football fun begins tomorrow night with a matchup of the Super Bowl Champion Steelers against the AFC South Champion Titans.

One of the best things about baseball ...

is that very time you turn on a game, you might just see something you've never seen before.

That was the case last night when the Cubs banged out eight consecutive hits to begin the game, tying the major league record. And the reason I had never seen it before is because the last time it happened was in 1973 ... when the Cubs did the same thing against the Pirates. That game was at Wrigley.

The first few hits were of the "hit 'em where they ain't" variety, but then the Cubs started hitting Zach Duke around pretty hard. The first out only came when Dempster gave them an out with a sacrifice bunt.

The need for speed

The Trib suggests that the Cubs may go after speedy Angels leadoff man Chone (pronounced Shawn) Figgins this offseason. The Cubs are last in the league with 45 stolen bases, while Figgins has 39 all by himself. He has averaged 49 stolen bases in his six-year career.

He has played six positions in his career (all but pitcher, catcher and first base), but is primarily a third baseman. He has played 244 career games in center field.

My question is: Where would he play? Barring a trade, the Cubs are committed to Soriano in left, Fukudome in center, and Bradley in right. Ramirez will obviously man the hot corner, leaving only second base as a legitimate option. While Figgins has started 86 games at second in his career, he's played there just twice in 2009 and I wonder if he would sign with the Cubs knowing that's where he'd spend the majority of his time.

Also starting at second base in 2010 ...

Jeff Baker? The Daily Herald's Inside Pitch blog did an interesting comparison between Jeff Baker in his time with the Cubs vs. Mark DeRosa in his time with the Cardinals. Since they have played 46 and 47 games, respectively, it makes for a pretty good comparison.

There has obviously been a great deal of hand-wringing over DeRosa's departure this past offseason, so it's interesting to see that Baker has hit .341 with 3 HR and 13 RBI while DeRosa has hit .244 with 8 HR and 19 RBI with the Cardinals. Baker's OBP is .399 compared to DeRosa's .313.

In fact, if you add the Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a statistic I partially understand and won't delve into too deeply at the moment) values of Fontenot and Baker, you end up with a higher value than that of DeRosa. Obviously DeRosa could have also filled in for an injured Aramis Ramirez and provided some other flexibility, but claiming that DeRosa would have saved this team is not accurate.

Baker, 28, will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and may be back for another stint with the Cubs next year, perhaps as a platoon with Fontenot.

Shark!

Jeff Samardzija was recalled yesterday, and will likely get a start before the season is through. Samardzija struggled in his final AAA start, going just 4.2 innings and allowing five runs.

Like a broken record

Bengals fans, are you sick of your team's futility? Wizards fans, are you fed up with your team's struggles? Royals fans, are you sick and tired of the losses piling up?

Try this mantra: At least I'm not a Pirates fan.

With their 4-2 loss to the Cubs on Monday, the Pirates guaranteed that they will finish the season under .500. This will be the 17th consecutive losing season for the once proud franchise, a record for any major sport.

While the cross-state rival Phillies once suffered through 16 straight losing seasons, the Kansas City/Sacramento Kings failed to have a winning season for 15 straight years (even changing cities couldn't change their fate), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dealt with 14 consecutive failed campaigns, the Pittsburgh Pirates will soon stand alone when it comes to franchise futility.

It wasn't always this way, of course. In 1992, the Pirates roster featured Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek, Randy Tomlin, Tim Wakefield, and a host of other talented players who helped lead them to a 96-66 record, a third consecutive NL East title, and an NLCS matchup with the Braves. But, alas, Barry Bonds left for San Francisco in the offseason, and a 75-87 finish in 1993 would portend a streak of failure never before seen in professional sports. It remains to be seen whether it will ever end, and if it does, whether any team will ever again sink to the depths of their misery.

So what was the world like way back in 1992, the last time Pirates fans had something to cheer about?

• George Bush was president. The first George Bush.
• Jay Leno became the host of the Tonight Show.
• Brett Favre made his first start for the Packers.
• Jeffrey Dahmer was sentenced to life in prison.
• Silence of the Lambs won Best Picture.
• Race riots took place in L.A. after a jury acquitted LAPD officers in the Rodney King case.
• Dr. Dre released his first solo album.

Yup, 1992 was a long-ass time ago. And the length of time between then and now has seemed even longer for those who follow the Pirates. In the 16 season from 1993 through 2008, the Pirates finished in last place seven times, won fewer than 70 games nine times, and scored more runs than their opponents ... um ... never. (They came ever so close in 1999 when they scored just seven fewer runs.) By the way, the Pirates are indeed in last place at the moment, 8.5 games behind the 5th place Reds, and are on pace to win just 64 games.

Seventeen straight losing seasons. Wow. Since 1993, the Bengals have had four .500 seasons and one winning one; the Wizards have had five winning seasons and one .500 one; and the Royals have had two winning seasons. So if those teams are punching bags of their respective leagues, the Pirates are the freakin' nuclear test site of Major League Baseball.

On July 24 of last year, the Pirates were 48-54. But then they traded Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, lost 41 of their last 60 games, and found themselves in a familiar place in the standings when the season ended. On June 2 of this year, the Pirates were a respectable 24-28. But since then, they've traded Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, John Grabow, Tom Gorzelanny, Adam LaRoche, and Nyjer Morgan. Now they have the third worst record in the majors and don't exactly seem primed for a run in 2010.

So Pirates fans, as you endure the conclusion to another chapter of the Pirates' frustrating, forgettable attempt to escape their unfortunate fate, try this mantra: Go Steelers.

Things I think I know after one of the season's worst losses

Sunday: Marlins 3, Cubs 2

• Kevin Gregg will be okay. Until his last two games, in which he imploded for two blown saves against the team that traded him a few months ago, Gregg had a two-month period in which he converted 13/15 saves, posted a 2.33 ERA, and walked just eight men in 27 innings.
• Jake Fox should play damn near every day.
• Ryan Dempster should have had a rehab start. He looked terrible against the Astros last week, but perhaps he just needed time to get settled. Sunday's start was his best since early June.
• It'll feel better if we just focus on the fact that the Cardinals lost to Roy Oswalt's rookie replacement, keeping the Cubs within 1/2 game of first.
  

News flash

Matt Holliday went 0-for-4 on Sunday. His average as a Cardinals plummeted to .541.

Did you know ...

In the last two seasons, the Pirates have traded Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche, Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny.

We Hart-ly knew ye

Thursday: Cubs 12, Astros 3


Kevin Hart had a good start and a strange finish. His start (6 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) netted him his third straight victory, but his Cubs career was finished shortly thereafter, as he was traded to the Pirates after the game. Hart, along with Jose Ascanio and Single-A third baseman Josh Harrison, were shipped to one of Hendry's favorite trading partners for lefty reliever John Grabow and lefty starter Tom Gorzelanny.

It was a good pick-up for the Cubs, who will now have two lefties in the pen once Lilly returns from the DL. Marshall will presumably return to the rotation for now given that Hart was involved in the trade.

Grabow had the third-lowest ERA among NL left-handed relievers last year, and was the Jewish Pitcher of the Year (seriously). 2008 and 2009 have been the best years of his career. He has control issues at times, as he's walked 28 men in 47.1 innings, and he's actually better against righties (.234 average against) than lefties (.275).

Gorzelanny, 27, was 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 2007, but has struggled since and finds himself in the minors this year.

The trade seems pretty fair on paper: Hart could turn into a back-end starter, Gorzelanny already proved he has the potential to contribute at the major league level, but hasn't harnessed his talent consistently; the Cubs get the lefty they need and give up a serviceable arm in Ascanio; and the Pirates get a Single-A OBP guy.

The trade makes the Cubs bullpen--which has been very strong of late--even stronger, improves the rotation slightly while Lilly is out, and gives them a lefty with the potential to be a mid-rotation starter in a year or two.

The Cubs' second consecutive pounding of the Astros puts them a season-high eight games over .500. The offense feasted on Houston pitching once again, putting up double-digit runs in back-to-back games for the first time since ... well, not that long ago, actually: August 25-26 of last year in Pittsburgh, when they won 12-3 and 14-9. The bats looked so good Thursday, they knocked Russ Ortiz right out of the Astros organization--he was released after the game.

The lineup seems to have a different hero every day, and Thursday it was Fukudome: a single, a double, a triple and two walks, along with four RBI and two runs. Theriot also drove in four runs, and Derrek Lee was the only starter (including Kevin Hart) who didn't record at least one hit. Fox and Bradley added long balls, and the Cubs are now up to 10th in the NL in runs scored (not great, but up from 15th).

A 6-1 homestand on the heels of a 5-2 road trip is just what the doctor ordered out of the break, and it's nice to have momentum heading into a nine-game road trip to Florida, Cincinnati and Colorado. The Cardinals used a 15-for-29 start from Matt Holliday to take three of four from the best team in the majors, but lost to the Dodgers in 10 innings Thursday, 5-3. So the Cubs regain possession of first place, 1/2 game up on the Cardinals, with the Astros and Brewers four games back at .500 exactly.

***UPDATE***I stand corrected. According to the Trib, Gorzelanny will take over the fifth starter role, and Marshall will remain in the bullpen. Gorzelanny has a 0.96 ERA in his last six minor league starts.

You don't see THAT very often

Two amazing occurrences in baseball this past week:

1. A pitcher got a win without throwing a pitch.

2. The Nationals won a game with a player who wasn't on their team, and the win went to another player who isn't on their team.

So how did these things happen?

Alan Embree came on in relief in a tie game against the Nationals and immediately picked Austin Kearns off of first. The Rockies then took the lead and won the game in the following inning, giving Embree the win in a game in which he didn't throw to home plate. Yet another reason that pitchers' wins and losses are severely overrated in baseball.

But the more interesting story came out of Houston on Thursday, where the Nationals won the continuation of a game that was suspended by rain earlier in the year. The continuation was played in Houston even though Washington was the home team, and since the Nationals won the game without having to take the field defensively, the win went to Joel Hanrahan, who threw the last pitch in the original game. Only problem is, Hanrahan was traded to the Pirates on June 30. The win was his first of the season, and he was over 1,000 miles away from the action when he earned it.

To make things even more ridiculous, the winning run was scored by Nyjer Morgan, who was on the Pirates when the original game was played on May 5. So it goes in the books as a win on May 5, but the player who scored the winning run for the Nationals was a Pirate on that day (and went 1-for-5, by the way). So the winning run was scored by a player who wasn't on the team when the game was technically played, and the win goes to a pitcher who wasn't on the team when the game was finished.

Just another day at the ballpark.